2014 NLDS Preview: Matchups & Predictions

Sep 27, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder

Bryce Harper

(34) and shortstop

Ian Desmond

(20) celebrate after the game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 5-1. Mandatory Credit:

Brad Mills

-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning Washington Nationals fans! Who’s excited for some postseason baseball? Everyone? That’s what I thought! In fact, I am so excited, I’m going to forego my usual 1500-word, stat-heavy column in favor of something more visceral.

Because, as San Francisco Giant Tim Hudson has so eloquently explained, “come playoff time, talent can take you a long ways, but what do you have between your legs?” So, let’s break down the two teams position by position and combine this analysis with what we’ll call the Cojone Factor™ to see if we can predict a winner…

Catcher
Buster Posey vs. Wilson Ramos
Ramos might have the better nickname, but Posey is arguably the best hitting catcher in the bigs. Ramos closes the gap somewhat both in his team’s ERA when he plays (influenced by the best staff in baseball) and in a better caught stealing rate. Still, this one is easy…
Edge: Giants

First Baseman
Brandon Belt vs. Adam LaRoche
Somehow, Belt has a better defensive WAR than LaRoche despite the latter’s reputation. At the plate, they are a statistical virtual tie, with Belt maybe being undervalued for playing in a pitcher’s park. Also, Belt can be streaky good, but then so can LaRoche. Tough one to call.
Edge: Push

Second Baseman
Joe Panik vs. Asdrubal Cabrera
Panik has come out of nowhere to fill the void that was 2B on the Giants’ starting nine. He has hit over .300 and plays adequate defense. But Cabrera can be a wizard with the glove (albeit at a different position) and has a better-than-average middle-infield bat. But you have to take it all with a grain of salt because of where the Giants have to put Panik in the lineup (2nd) compared to Cabrera’s spot (8th). No need to panic, Nats fans, we’re about to have our first win. Just not yet…
Edge: Push

Shortstop
Brandon Crawford vs. Ian Desmond
Crawford

might have hit a Wild Card grand slam, but he is no Ian Desmond at the dish. He is a better fielder than Desmond, but the stats say it’s closer than the eye test would have you believe. Regardless, I just took an imaginary poll of MLB GM’s and they unanimously chose Desmond.
Edge: Nats

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Third Baseman
Pablo Sandoval vs. Anthony Rendon
One guy plays shaky defense and is always a candidate for a late-inning defensive substitution, one guy is not that guy. One guy is undisciplined with his swing, while the other has probably the least complicated swing in baseball. One guy is slower than a pitching change, the other is young and spry on the basepaths. Please.
Edge: Nats

Leftfielder
Travis Ishikawa/Michael Morse vs. Bryce Harper/Ryan Zimmerman
This is, by far the most dramatic spot on the field for both teams, in my opinion. Morse is banged up but is expected to play some against his old team, but Ishikawa will probably see more innings. Zimmerman is also not at full strength, but, well, Bryce Harper. If I’m managing, I play the hurt guys in each case, but the reverse will probably result.

Given that Ishikawa is essentially a replacement-level player, it all comes down to whether Harper’s potential shines through stronger than his defensive and baserunning blunders. That’s impossible to predict, so I’m gonna have to go to plan B. Zimmerman is better than Morse.
Edge: Nats

Centerfielder
Gregor Blanco vs. Denard Span
Two leadoff hitters. Blanco is really a bench guy. Meanwhile, Span had a career year. Moving along…
Edge: Nats

Rightfielder
Hunter Pence vs. Jayson Werth
Oooh, this one is tough. Both are weird in their own special way, but make up for it with their play. Try and find a difference of merit either offensively or defensively. You can’t. I’m going to go the easy route.
Edge: Push

Bench Players
Giants vs. Nationals
The LF backup will influence this component to a strong degree, so Zimmerman gives the Nats an edge. But the Nats’ bench has usually been an opposing pitching staff’s best friend over the last few years. On the flip side, the Giants expected bench of Arias, Brown, Duffy, and Perez has one guy I have ever heard of, and that’s only because I’ve seen Arias go in when Sandoval comes out. There are no winners here.
Edge: Push

Starting Pitchers
Giants vs. Nationals
Listen to any expert, and they’ll tell you the Washington starters are going to be the difference in these playoffs. They aren’t wrong, but it might be for a different reason than you think. Game 1 starter Stephen Strasburg and likely Game 4 starter Gio Gonzalez are prone to meltdowns, although they have both looked good of late. On paper, the Giants are not as formidable. Nonetheless, that Peavy, Hudson, Bumgarner trifecta has no slouches either.

If I had to guess, the Nats will lose the SP matchup in game 1, and win game 2. Game 3 is anyone’s call. Game 4 depends a lot on who the Giants select to go that day. If there is a Game 5 (I guarantee a Game 4), is it possible that Strasburg could lose two home games in a row, after going 9-3 there this year? Doubtful, but it is the postseason.

Who knows, he could win Game 1 and flip the script. Parenthetically, if Strasburg is shelled in Game 1, do the Nats go with Tanner Roark in a deciding game? So many questions.
Edge: Push

Bullpen
Giants vs. Nationals
The Nationals have the 4th best bullpen ERA in baseball while the Giants are just one spot behind them. That’s all well and good, but neither team strikes me as settled in the late innings.

Both closers aren’t three-out, no-run locks in my mind, despite the impressive run Drew Storen has been on since being installed in that role. Another tight decision, but I think the Giants willingness to mix-and-match guys to situations will overcome the Nationals reliance on set roles.
Edge: Giants

Manager
Bruce Bochy vs. Matt Williams
It appears that Matt Williams has no real competition for Manager of the Year in 2014. But that is more a function of circumstance and the roster he was handed than anything else. [Honestly, it is an unjust award more often than not.] Bruce Bochy has won titles and has a great, yet firm, relationship with his players. Williams has seemed absent-minded in a lot of cases (especially when it comes to pinch-running and historical stat bullpen matchups) and also seems to give too much leash to guys like Harper, Strasburg, and Gonzalez. I could go on and on…
Edge: Giants

Home Field Advantage
Giants vs. Nationals
Nationals Park has really transformed since the last time the team made the playoffs. There was a constant energy this year that didn’t seem to exist in 2012 until after the team clinched a berth. This will only be amplified in the postseason.

Unfortunately, the Nats do not draw true fans on the road while the Giants do…with the multiplier effects of a transient city like Washington. AT&T Park is an extremely tough place to play from a crowd noise standpoint and yields additional advantages thanks to the uniqueness of right field and those anachronistic foul territory bullpens.

Finally, the Giants are far more used to long plane flights thanks to the geography of their division and the country as a whole.
Edge: Giants

Cojone Factor™
Giants vs. Nationals
The weirdest part of the whole Tim Hudson affair is that he plays for a team that really doesn’t have any tough guys on it. Seriously, name a guy that will buzz you inside just for kicks or a batter with a fiery temper. I can’t think of one. What they lack in this department they make up for with scrappiness and overall team playoff experience. Plus, they get to start on the road, which in a five-game series is an advantage in my book. Hudson himself tends to confound the Nats, having gone 8-3 with about a 3.00 ERA over the last four years. But he’s facing the Nationals true ace in Jordan Zimmermann.

The Nationals gain points in Cojone Land because their team leader is Werth and he is one intimidating combination of being tightly wound and epitomizing the throwback who is intense about playing the ‘right’ way.

If Rafael Soriano was still the closer, I’d say he would increase the scariness level, but he hasn’t been right in months and might not be added to this NLDS squad, let alone close games. In short, if we’re gonna drop symbolic pants and get into a Cojone measuring contest, I don’t think either side would embarrass the other.
Edge: Push

Okay, let’s tabulate the results. Lo and behold, each team won four categories, lost four, and pushed on six. I did not plan this and actually kind of hate it because I am anything but a fence sitter. So who do I think is going to win the 2014 NLDS? The Nats, natch! [But only if they win the first two games.]

PS: This ended up being a 1500+ word column. I can’t help myself.

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