Bryce Harper’s 2014 season full of ups and downs

By Brandon Conner | Oct 20, 2014

No matter where you look on the Nationals lineup, there’s no player more electric, more intense, and more polarizing than Bryce Harper. The high flying, wall-crashing, swagger-having twenty-two year old plays the game with his heart on his sleeve, sometimes even letting his emotions get the best of him.

There’s also no one who carries a heavier burden of expectations. Ever since being taken number one overall, Harper has drawn comparisons to the greats of both yesterday (Mantle) and today (Trout). Before he even stepped on a Major League field, his career slogan was simple: Cooperstown or bust.

So far, it seems fair to call Bryce a disappointment, even if he’s far from being a bust. Fans must remember, however, that Harper just turned 22, and there’s still plenty of time for him to hit his stride. With Harper coming off a respectable 2013 season, the question that has to be asked as we look back over 2014 is whether or not Harper improved.

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Tale of Two Halves

It’s impossible to talk about Bryce Harper’s season without splitting it into two uneven pieces. After Harper injured his thumb due to “hustle-gate,” he missed considerable playing time, which heavily affected his numbers.

Early season returns looked promising. Bryce hit the ball consistently and managed to get on base, though his power numbers were just okay. Through April 25, the day he injured his thumb, Bryce posted a slugging percentage of .422 with just one home run.

When he returned from the disabled list, Harper’s numbers failed to improve. At first, that may have seemed a bit concerning, but there’s two simple reasons that explain away those struggles.

First, injuries are tough to come back from no matter what body part is hurt, and when it comes to hitting, thumb injuries are trickier than most. Second, Harper’s swing was serving as more of a hindrance than a help in letting him produce.

But things slowly picked up. He cut down on the extra motion in his swing, opting to go with a less violent approach at the plate. That, combined with increased confidence in his injured thumb, brought back his power. In August, Harper posted an OPS of .830 with 7 homers. In the NLDS, Harper was the only power the Nats had.

Overall, Harper’s season numbers were at about his average. The only number that really suffered was his slugging percentage, which dropped from .486 in 2013 to .423 in 2014. The injury likely contributed to that fall, and, moving forward shouldn’t be an issue.

In the Field and On the Run

Harper’s defensive performance took a step back in 2014 from last year. According to FanGraphs, Harper’s fielding score (which measures runs above average) fell from 2.6 to -1.1, and his defensive score, when adjusted for position, fell from -2.1 to -5.1. Some of that can be attributed to his injuries, but in the second half of the season he played nearly every game, so that excuse hardly holds up when evaluating the scores.

Another area where Harper took a step back was baserunning. His FanGraphs score dropped from 1.8 in -1.2 in 2014, and his struggles in this area were probably some of the more evident during the season. After all, how many times did Nats fans find themselves screaming at the television as Harper got caught in between bases in a stupid situation? Far too often, most will tell you.

With all that being said, it’s fair to say that Bryce should improve both of these areas next year. He’s got a cannon of an arm in the field, and he isn’t one to back down from any outfield wall. If he can just use his head instead of his heart when on the base paths, that part of his game should improve as well.

Off Field Issues

Bryce Harper has never been a guy with character issues. Whatever you think of his competitive nature, the screaming and antics on the field, it’s obvious that is driven by a will to win rather than poor sportsmanship.

As I wrote earlier this season, manager Matt Williams seemed intent on sending a message to his young superstar early on. Harper, for his part, took the message about hustle so seriously that he hurt himself trying to prove himself.

The hustle play hardly came as a surprise. After all, Harper is known for crashing into walls as much as his unique hairstyle. What was a surprise was the way Bryce reacted. In front of reporters, Harper called out his manager’s decisions, and, even more concerning, called out his teammate, Denard Span.

Fortunately, the situation turned out to be a nonfactor. Bryce kept his mouth shut, Williams stopped trying to micromanage his star, and Denard Span (perhaps looking to show he did belong in the lineup) went on a tear that lasted the rest of the regular season.

(Note: I think it’s highly unlikely that Harper’s comments really drove Span’s resurgence in the offense, but, hey, you never know. Stranger things have happened.)

A Look Ahead

Next year, the Nationals won’t have to worry about overcrowding in the outfield. With LaRoche likely gone to make room for Zimmerman at first, Bryce will be firmly entrenched in left field with Span still roaming center.

The expectation is that Harper will eventually take over that role, but 2015 seems unlikely to be the year that happens, which is a bit of a shame. With more space and less wall, it could be a benefit to Harper’s health to play center. But that’s a discussion for another day.

So, with no real question about where he will play in 2015, the real question is: where will Harper hit in the lineup?

If there was ever a time to move Harper up and give him a more prominent role in the offense, it’s now. His swing is locked in, and, as he proved in October, he’s ready to provide the spark for this team. After all, if not for his long ball and Rendon, the Nats might not have mustered a single run against the Giants.

With LaRoche gone, the Nationals will need someone to replace his production in the top of the order, and Harper can be the perfect guy to hit in the three hole in front of Werth. It will also help that Williams, with a year of experience under his belt, won’t have to spend the first month of next season shuffling his lineup around, allowing the offense to settle in early and find a groove faster.

All of these factors look promising for Harper’s 2015. If he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if), Harper is poised to have a breakout season next year and finally start to look more like all of those legends that he’s supposed to compare to.

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