Tanner Roark: National League Ranking

Throughout the month, we will be ranking each Nationals starter and a couple of bench players to see where they rank at their positions in the National League. Earlier this week, we ranked Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister. Today we will be continuing our series with Tanner Roark.

In these rankings, we usually use numbers from the past two seasons to give us a larger sample size. However, since Roark did not play full-time last season, we will only be using statistics from 2014. By looking at these numbers, we will see which parts of the team need to be fixed and which are solid compared to the rest of the league. The first step for the Nationals is to win the division, so if any National League East player comes across in our findings, we will be sure to point it out. If not, the main goal is winning the National League Pennant and going to the World Series.

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I will analyze both standard percentages as well as advanced statistics. This will give us a full picture of who the best players are at that position. To put the players in some type of order, we will be using WAR. This gives us a baseline to start the analysis.

In 2014, the top five National League starting pitchers by WAR according to FanGraphs are Clayton Kershaw (7.2), Jordan Zimmermann (5.2), Adam Wainwright (4.5), Stephen Strasburg (4.3), and Johnny Cueto (4.1).

It’s no surprise to see Kershaw at the top. He’s been a dominant force in the league, and trying to compare him to any of his contemporaries seems a fool’s errand. His numbers have been historically good. What is nice to see, though, is the fact that the Nationals have two pitchers in Zimmermann and Strasburg who make the top five. That’s a credit to the pitching staff.

Roark, for his part, comes in just outside the top ten at number eleven, posting a WAR this season of 3.0. That’s nothing to laugh at, especially considering that he’s a young guy who is the fifth pitcher in the rotation. He comes in ranked even above Doug Fister, who many consider to the Nats real ace, and Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals’ best pitcher last year who struggled with injuries throughout 2014.

But what do Roark’s other numbers say about him? One of the key stats we look at when evaluating pitchers is K/9, or the number of strikeouts a pitcher registers per nine innings. Roark has a K/9 of 6.25, or roughly two strikeouts per three innings pitched. This number ranks outside the top 30 in the NL for qualifying candidates, but that isn’t too surprising; Roark is more of a pitch-to-contact guy, who doesn’t rely on missing bats to get outs. If he were a reliever, this might be a problem, but as a starter, it’s a bit less of a worry.

While he may not get many strikeouts, Roark does manage to avoid walks. His 1.77 BB/9, or walks per nine innings, is good enough for eighth among all qualifying pitchers this season, and it’s even higher than Nats star Stephen Strasburg. He also isn’t incredibly prone to the long ball. He allows less than a single homer (0.72, to be exact) home runs per nine innings pitched, good enough for 15^th in the league.

One of the other top measures of a pitcher’s success is WHIP, or walks and hits per innings pitched. This number quantifies how many baserunners a pitcher gives up, and a lower number means a pitcher isn’t allowing opposing batters to get on against him. Roark once again looks strong in this category, posting a 1.09 WHIP during 2014. That’s also good enough for eighth in the league, and once again Roark manages to beat out Strasburg. Roark also ranks high (20^th) in his strikeout-to-walk ratio, due in large part to his ability to avoid giving out free passes.

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Another key statistic when evaluating pitchers is their BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. This number measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits, excluding home runs. Over time, this number tends toward a mean of 3.00, meaning that a low number is harder to sustain over time and tends upward, while a higher number tends to fall back. In other words, a pitcher with an incredibly low BABIP over a certain length of time might be expected to have a rough future, while a pitcher with a very high BABIP might be expected to improve in the future.

Roark’s BABIP for 2014 came in at 2.70. This number isn’t extraordinarily high or low. If anything, Roark’s BABIP may be expected to be a little higher in 2015, but not by much. Roark is also in line with most of the pitchers in the top ten, so expecting him to continue to have success here isn’t all that farfetched, either.

The only real concerning statistic for Roark is his fly ball ratio of 37.9%, which is the ninth highest in the league this year. While fly balls may seem like nothing to worry about, they can be problematic in the long run. Pitchers that surrender higher fly ball ratios tend to struggle over time against those who manage to induce more grounders. It isn’t necessarily a red flag, but Nationals fans would certainly like to see that number come down, if at all possible.

All in all, Roark’s numbers this season tend to fall right in line with what we saw over the course of the 2014 season. Roark, while not posting the numbers of a superstar pitcher, is very good, and there’s no real reason to expect him to fall off next season. In fact, given the fact that Roark is so young, and still learning his craft, Nationals fans can keep their fingers crossed that Roark is even better next season, perhaps joining Zimmermann and Strasburg in the top five.

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