Friday L 15-0 @ Cincinnati

Source: FanGraphs

Most important pitch (Nationals pitching): Zack Cozart three-run home run (vs Haren, Bottom 3). -0.162

This was the home run that really put the game out of reach. Down 2-0, you are a bloop and a blast from tying the game. This began the downward spiral that was Friday night’s game, but at least it all happened in one game and we never, ever speak of it again. Alright?

Apr 7, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce (32) doubles during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

(One side note from that game: I feel the first home run that Davey Johnson went out to argue was even more obviously interfered with than the one that was reviewed (and upheld). Of course, my memory may be a little hazy but that was what I had thought upon seeing the replays.)

Most important at bat (Nationals hitting): Jayson Werth ground out (vs Bailey, Top 3). -0.046

Let’s face it, the Nationals didn’t have very many important at bats in this one, but this one was the biggest. Down only 2-0, Werth had two men on and a chance to get the game tied, but grounded out to end the inning. It was the closest the Nationals came to tying the game and Cozart’s three-run home run in the bottom half of the inning sealed their fate.

Saturday W 7-6 (11) @ Cincinnati

Source: FanGraphs

Most important pitch (Nationals pitching): Joey Votto triple (vs Soriano, Bottom 9). -0.299

In terms of Win Probability, this was a big swing. It was really the perfect storm of WPA. High leverage, and it allowed the tying run to be at 3rd with the winning run at the plate with no outs. The opportunity was high for the Reds to walk off, but Soriano closed the door after the wild pitch that tied it.

Most important at bat (Nationals hitting): Ian Desmond home run (vs Hoover, Top 11). +0.347

If WPA was done after the fact, undoubtedly the bigger home run would be Wilson Ramos‘s. However it’s done in real time, so Desmond’s home run which gave the Nationals the late lead gets it. Desmond’s story was the ultimate redemption story. Fielder makes errors that cost team lead, then gives team lead with bat.

Sunday L 6-3 @ Cincinnati

Source: FanGraphs

Most important pitch (Nationals pitching): Jay Bruce double (vs Strasburg, Bottom 1). -0.158

This double to make the score 2-0 in the bottom of the first had the biggest swing in terms of WPA, not only because of the two runs scoring but because there were two runners in scoring position when the next hitter stepped up to the plate. The game would have many twists and turns, but this one had the biggest swing.

Most important at bat (Nationals hitting): Kurt Suzuki home run (vs Cueto, Top 2). +0.232

All of the gains made by Cincinnati in the bottom of the first were erased with one swing by Suzuki, hence the biggest swing of the game. The score remained this way until the sixth inning and was definitely the most important event with the Nationals hitting.

Honorable Mention: Shin-Soo Choo single (vs Strasburg, Bottom 6). -0.137

This ultimately helped swing the game, but was slightly below Bruce’s double. Of course this single didn’t score any runs, so it is muted in its effect but still is worth mentioning.

February 25, 2013; Clearwater, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Jeff Kobernus (46) hits a single in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Networks Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Kobernus was a second round pick in 2009, and is seen as a potential utility infielder and wasn’t going to stick in Detroit, who actually traded a player to Boston for the right to see him up close. Not surprisingly, the Nationals took him back instead of trying to complete a trade. Kobernus doesn’t have the hype of an Anthony Rendon or Matt Skole but with his start so far in Syracuse, may be a better prospect than people give him credit for.

Through four games, Kobernus is 8/14 with one home run and five RBI. Not only that, but he also has drawn four walks for a pretty insane line of .571/.632/.786. Yes, it’s only four games, but last year was .282/.325/.333 in 82 games at AA Harrisburg so he isn’t completely useless with the bat. He was a piece that Washington probably wasn’t going to miss had he stuck with the Tigers but having him the organization is something that has the potential to be interesting.

The Nationals already have a utility infielder in Steve Lombardozzi who was extremely useful when the team had injuries to Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond. Having Kobernus, whose bat can still develop is a wild card the same way that having Corey Brown and Eury Perez is. You can never have too many players. The fact that Washington had so many players taken away in the Rule 5 draft is a testament to that. Kobernus may only be a bench player in the future, but his start in AAA should be raising some eyebrows.

I didn’t like the fact that Detroit had taken Kobernus, but the fact he is back in the fold and off to a strong start is nice to see. He may not have been heard of before (and maybe even after) he was taken away from the Nationals but it’s someone worth keeping an eye on.

Mar 26, 2013; Jupiter, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Dan Haren (15) throws in the second inning during a spring training game against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

For the Cincinnati Reds, it is Homer Bailey starting who has held the Nationals hitters on the roster to a .167 average (5/30). Bailey is probably poised for a breakout this season, and the Reds need him to shore up the back end of their rotation now that Aroldis Chapman is back to the bullpen.

Kurt Suzuki checks in for the Nationals at catcher as Wilson Ramos rests with day games the next two days. That is the only lineup change for the Nationals.

Onto the lineups:

Washington Nationals vs RHP Homer Bailey
Denard Span (L) CF
Jayson Werth (R) RF
Bryce Harper (L) LF
Ryan Zimmerman (R) 3B
Adam LaRoche (L) 1B
Ian Desmond (R) SS
Danny Espinosa (S) 2B
Kurt Suzuki (R) C
Dan Haren (R) P

Cincinnati Reds vs RHP Dan Haren
Shin-Soo Choo (L) CF
Chris Heisey (R) LF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
Jay Bruce (L) RF
Todd Frazier (R) 3B
Zack Cozart (R) SS
Ryan Hanigan (R) C
Homer Bailey (R) P