May 16, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) after finishing the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Lineups:
Washington Nationals-
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Bryce Harper, RF
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
4. Adam LaRoche, 1B
5. Ian Desmond, SS
6. Danny Espinosa, 2B
7. Roger Bernadina, LF
8. Kurt Suzuki, C
9. Stephen Strasburg, RHP

San Francisco Giants-
1. Angel Pagan, CF
2. Marco Scutaro, 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
4. Buster Posey, C
5. Hunter Pence, RF
6. Brandon Belt, 1B
7. Gregor Blanco, LF
8. Brandon Crawford, SS
9. Matt Cain, RHP

First Pitch: 10:10 ET

May 16, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) on the bench after the sixth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Strasburg’s crumbling under adversity had raised its head before in the season, such as when he allowed a two-run homer to Evan Gattis when Zimmerman committed a similar error against the Braves, but his showing against the Cubs was by far the most egregious. But with this boiling-over, there was hope that the problem would be addressed. Whether it would come through a conversation with Davey, or some introspection on Strasburg’s part, fans everywhere hoped he would show some change in his next start.

The moment of reckoning came quickly in Strasburg’s start against the Padres. In the fifth, there were runners on first and second when Kyle Blanks grounded to Zimmerman. His throw to second was high, and he was charged with an error. In some ways, this situation was much more pressured than what happened in Strasburg’s earlier breakdown. Instead of two outs and runners on the corners, the bases were loaded with one out. Against the Cubs, it only took a runner on first as opposed to the inning ending to damage Strasburg’s confidence. Right after the error, however, Strasburg showed that he had learned from his mistakes. Instead of losing focus, he looked over at Zimmerman and nodded, as if to say “Don’t worry; I’ve got your back.”

May 16, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Strasburg’s gesture was exactly what Davey had meant in saying the team needed Strasburg to “pick us up.” It was a stark change from his immaturity against the Cubs, and an encouraging sign. Even more encouraging was how Strasburg pitched with the bases-loaded jam he was placed in. He minimized the damage, allowing an RBI groundout and then getting a strikeout to send the Padres back to their bench. A pessimist might say the situation was less stressful than his start against Chicago, given that he had a 5-0 lead in San Diego but was tied against the Cubs, but this error loaded the bases and was on the road. Strasburg demonstrated a significant change, and as MASN announcer F.P. Santangelo said, “You might want to circle that moment for the rest of the season.”

Thursday’s start against the Padres was significant for another reason apart from his mental maturing: he pitched into (and completed) the eighth inning for the first time in his career. He also won in his first career start in San Diego, his hometown. On Tuesday, he will face the defending champion San Francisco Giants, who are second in baseball in batting average and eighth in runs scored. Was Thursday’s start the turning point Strasburg needed to get back on the Cy Young campaign many expected for him this year? We’ll find out soon enough.

Today’s two starters both had ERAs above eight. Of course, the Nats’ starter let up four runs in 3.1 innings, while the Giants’ starter threw five scoreless innings and might have thrown more if he hadn’t exited with a fractured right hand. The Nationals got hammered, plain and simple. Their odds of winning dropped to 4.4% by the end of the fourth inning. They managed three hits and two walks, and one of each was by a pitcher. Today was their fifth loss by seven or more runs thus far this season, a large reason behind their -25 run differential. I have more negative facts, but you get the message.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Ryan Zimmerman‘s single (+3.0%)

May 20, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper (34) walks towards the on deck circle against the San Francisco Giants in the sixth inning at AT

Ryan Zimmerman singled in the top of the fourth with one out. The next batter, Adam LaRoche, grounded into a double play to end the inning. He was 0-3 on the day, ending his career-long 16-game hitting streak. The Nationals only trailed 2-0 at the time, but this would be the last of the team’s three hits. The Giants added three runs in the home half, all but putting the Nationals out of it. In the (here overdramatic) words of T.S. Eliot, “This is how the world ends: not with a bang but a whimper.”

Most Important Nationals Hit: Andres Torres‘ RBI double (-16.1%)

Two straight Giants singled to open the second half of the inning. Andres Torres wanted to make sure they had not done so in vain, and hit a double to score Hunter Pence and put the Giants on top, 1-0. Brandon Crawford would drive in another run in to double the lead in that frame, though San Francisco’s real onslaught would not come until the fifth.

Champ of the Game: In the land of the blind, the one-eyed, shortsighted man with cataracts is king. With the lowest WPA to take this title in recent memory, it was Zimmerman (+0.6%), going 1-4. San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong (+20.4%) pitched five shutout innings, allowing three fewer runs than he did in any other start this year. Unfortunately, he left the game after being hit by a pitch on the hand, and will miss six weeks.

Chump of the Game: Zach Duke (-15.7%) pitched 3.1 innings, allowing four runs and seven hits. However, he was 1-1 at the plate. Every starting Giant had at least one hit, so their “chump” was reigning NL MVP Buster Posey (-4.5%), who was 2-5.