District on Deck » Season Review

2012 Season Review: Ian Desmond

Jared Book — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 21:14:26 +0000

Ian Desmond wasn’t always expected to step it up at the Major League level. Drafted in 2004, he has already had eight years of professional baseball under his belt. In fact, I was looking through my old books and a 2010 version of John Sickels’ Baseball Prospect Book had Desmond as a C+ prospect. Not exactly filler but not exactly a future star.

Oct 10, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) doubles in the fourth inning of game three of the 2012 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

2010 actually ended up being his first full Major League season and did not fare too badly. He was below average offensively, but had promise. In 2011, he actually was farther below average and seemed like a .260 hitter with 8-10 home run potential.

But, at the end of last year over the last two months, he hit .295 with 5 of his 10 home runs on the season. Signs of improvement were there. Then, in Spring Training, manager Davey Johnson grew concerned with Desmond’s approach. Whatever he did or didn’t do worked.

2012 Projection (ZiPS): .256/.304/.378, 10 HR, 57 RBI
2012 Actual: .292/.335/.511, 25 HR, 73 RBI

Desmond had his best season as a Major Leaguer leading all shortstops in homeruns with 25 and being a solidifying force at the bottom of the Nationals lineup. The improvement in power has gone on from August of last year through 2012 and seems similar to the signs that Jose Bautista had when he went from journeyman to the best home run hitter in baseball.

Suddenly, Desmond had been getting comparisons to the top shortstops in the game and his career took a turn for the better. That continued in the NLDS where he was the one consistently getting key hits when the rest of the Nationals were struggling. It was no longer smoke and mirrors, it was a definite improvement. If he can keep it going next year, the Nationals will have their shortstop for the future and present.

Season Highlight: September 4 against Chicago, Desmond went 2-5 with a home run and a double with 4 RBIs. The home run was his 20th of the season.

Previous Reviews:
Xavier Nady
Chien Ming Wang
Mark DeRosa
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Maldonado
Brad Lidge
Ryan Mattheus
Ryan Perry
Rick Ankiel
Jesus Flores
Sandy Leon
Corey Brown
Christian Garcia
Jhonatan Solano
Mike Morse
Zach Duke
Tom Gorzelanny
Chad Tracy
Mike Gonzalez
John Lannan
Kurt Suzuki
Drew Storen
Wilson Ramos
Tyler Moore
Steve Lombardozzi
Jayson Werth
Craig Stammen
Tyler Clippard
Roger Bernadina
Sean Burnett
Ross Detwiler
Adam LaRoche
Edwin Jackson
Danny Espinosa
Ryan Zimmerman
Jordan Zimmermann
Stephen Strasburg
Bryce Harper
Gio Gonzalez

2012 Season Review: Bryce Harper

Andrew Flax — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:00:50 +0000

Going into spring training, Bryce Harper was not expected to be coming to Washington any time soon, given how young he was and how unpolished he was thought to be. However, as the preseason continued, he impressed the coaches and fans alike, leading some to call for his call-up. In their preseason projections, ZiPS expected Harper to come up to DC fairly early, but not to blow anyone away, as they foresaw a .238/.317/.405 line with 17 homers in 132 games. Their prediction for the time of his call to the majors was not far off, as he debuted on April 28th in LA, shortly after the deadline for him to have another year of team control, and played in 139 games. Their predictions for his production, however, were dead wrong. Harper was one of the best hitters on the team since his callup, hitting .270/.340/.477 with 22 home runs, the second most for a teenager ever. His 4.8 WAR, according to Baseball Prospectus, was the most ever for a teenager, 1.5 more than the second-most, New York Giant Mel Ott in 1928. Needless to say, Harper took the league by storm.

Oct 12, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Bryce Harper (34) watches his solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning of game five of the 2012 NLDS at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-US PRESSWIRE

Despite the fanfare that accompanied him into the majors, Harper struggled out of the gate, as any 19-year-old would be expected to do. After 20 games, he was hitting .230 with only two home runs, far from demonstrating the prodigious power he had been fabled to have. During this stretch, however, Harper had an experience that spoke to his style of play and instantly endeared him to every Nationals fan. On May 6th, against the Phillies, Harper was hit by a pitch from Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels. Hamels would later admit that this was intentional, intended as a “Welcome to the big leagues” gesture that harkened back to the days of “old baseball”. These remarks earned Hamels a five-game suspension. Instead of getting angry with Hamels, however, Harper chose to get even. He reached third base on a single by Jayson Werth, and, when Hamels made a pickoff throw to first, dashed for home plate and slid in safely. Harper also did not live up to his reputation of arrogance when asked about that series after the game, simply remarking that “Hamels threw a great game tonight.” His youth would show its ugly side just a few days later, however, as on May 12th, Harper slammed his bat into the wall in the dugout tunnel after grounding out in the seventh inning of a game against the Cincinnati Reds. The bat bounced back and hit him above the left eye, resulting in a gash that would later require ten stitches.

Harper, perhaps settling in to the majors, caught fire in late May, hitting .382 with five home runs and a 1.144 OPS over his next 20 games, bringing his average to a season-high .307 on June 12th. By this time, he had settled into center field and the number two spot in the lineup, often hitting behind Steve Lombardozzi when Jayson Werth went out with a broken wrist. This, however, would be the statistical zenith of his season, as he began a long cold stretch that would last two full months. Over the 55 games from June 13th to August 15th, Harper hit just .204 with three home runs and a .563 OPS, 121 points less than his slugging percentage alone in the prior 20 games. Many speculated that big league pitchers had figured him out and some even suggested that he should be sent back to the minors, as his average bottomed out at .245. However, as he had all season, Harper was able to calm down and solve his problems.

He ended the season as hot as he had been in any stretch during it, hitting .327 with 12 homers and a 1.045 OPS in the season’s final 44 games. He had two two-homer games within eight days of each other at the end of August and the beginning of September, his only two of the season, and roared back into the Rookie of the Year race that some had left him for dead in. Despite his momentum going into the playoffs, he did not perform particularly well, going just 3-23, good for a .130 batting average. All of his hits were for extra bases, however, and in Game 5 of the NLDS he became the youngest player in MLB history to hit a postseason triple.

Season Highlight: His being hit by the Hamels pitch and the subsequent steal of home. He had hardly been in the majors a week, but immediately made his mark as a gritty and risky player, an identity that served him well throughout his rookie season.

Next Year: With a full season under his belt, there is reason to believe Harper could make a Trout-like leap in ability and make a run at the MVP next year, given his incredible success at such a young age. Even if he does not immediately soar to Trout’s level, he will undeniably be a huge part of the Nats’ lineup in 2013 and for years to come, whether in center field or a corner spot.

2012 Season Review: Gio Gonzalez

Darlene Langley — Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:00:13 +0000

Nationals fans were not sure what to expect when the team traded four valued prospects for Gio Gonzalez in December 2011. The Nats sent pitchers Tom Milone, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole and catcher Derek Norris to the Oakland A’s to secure Gio’s services. Nats fans were familiar with Milone and Peacock because they had seen them pitch as September callups and both pitchers appeared to perform well. There had been buzz about how good a prospect Derek Norris was for quite some time. Fans and some members of the media wondered whether Mike Rizzo had just pulled the trigger on a great trade, or whether, if Gio did not perform well, whether the Nats had just cashiered their starting pitching future.

Oct 7, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) looks on from the dugout during the seventh inning of the 2012 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Nationals won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

There was discussion about how Gonzalez was known for control problems, and walked too many batters. Folks speculated that Gio’s numbers might get better without having to face a DH on a regular basis, and speculation that his numbers would look worse not getting to pitch regularly in Oakland’s park.

Rizzo seemed to have no doubts about what he had acquired in the trade, because he locked Gonzalez down to a long term contract on January 15, 2012, three weeks after the trade was completed.

Gonzalez went on to have the best year ever for a Nationals pitcher.

2012 Prediction (ZiPS): 14-10, 3.55 ERA, 32 starts, 195.3 IP, 83BB/190K
2012 Actual (with Washington): 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 32 starts, 199.1 IP, 76BB/207K

As can be seen from the pre-season prediction from ZiPS vs. the actual performance numbers, Gio had a much better season than expected. Each year that Gonzalez has been in the majors he has improved his wins, total walks allowed, ERA and WHIP. Gonzalez improved his statistics by a much larger magnitude this year. Instead of the steady progression of improvement he made in his prior three years as a starter, Gio made a major leap to elite pitching status this season.

Gio’s twenty-one wins were the most in a season for a Washington pitcher. He was named to his second consecutive All Star team. He won the Warren Spahn Award–given to the best left handed pitcher. He is in the running for the Cy Young award.

Nationals fans now know what they have in Gio Gonzalez. He is a pitcher just hitting his prime, who features a good fastball and a great curveball. Nats fans can look forward to having Gio on the mound every fifth start, racking up wins and getting hitters to whiff at that nasty curve.

The Gonzalez trade with the A’s granted the Nats another benefit late in the season. The A’s were comfortable enough utilizing Derek Norris as a back up catcher that they were willing to trade Kurt Suzuki to the Nationals. Suzuki made valuable contributions to the Nats down the stretch.

Gonzalez is an outsized personality. He is always smiling and joking. He has been known to get Stephen Strasburg to laugh and Jordan Zimmerman to crack a smile. When he is on the mound, though, he is all business.

Season Highlight: On August 8th, Gonzales threw his second complete game of his career when the Nationals were playing the Houston Astros. Gio hit his first career home run during that game off Armando Galarraga, a two run shot that made all the difference in the game. The Nats won the game 4-3.