After an encouraging win to start this series, it has been nothing but downhill. A crushing extra-inning loss was bad, but today’s game was worse. Zach Duke blew the game, as is his wont. The Nationals are now below .500 for the first time since April 30th. However, I will continue to be optimistic until the Nats get mathematically eliminated. Obviously, the team will struggle with the current injury situation. Six players appeared in the game today that would not have if it were not for injuries: starter Nate Karns, position players Steve Lombardozzi, Tyler Moore, and Jhonatan Solano, and relievers Fernando Abad and Erik Davis. The relievers did not allow a run, but Karns allowed four runs in 4.2 IP and the position players were a combined 2-10.

Jun 2, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) (center facing front) is greeted by teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Fortunately, all of their roles will be reduced soon. Jayson Werth will come off the DL on Tuesday most likely, and Ross Detwiler should make his next start. Anthony Rendon was 1-2 with solid defense at second in his first AAA game; he will be up soon as Danny Espinosa and Lombardozzi continue to struggle. Duke and his 8.71 ERA will run out of rope soon enough, and the seemingly better Davis or Abad will stay up in his place. When Bryce Harper returns to lineup, it should look like this: Span, Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Desmond, Rendon, Suzuki, pitcher. That lineup will be infinitely more productive than the Nats are now. Hope is not lost, but it’s easy to unnecessarily lose sight of it.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Ian Desmond‘s solo homer (+11.1%)

Desmond’s home run would have been much more impactful if it had come an inning earlier. In the fifth, Karns was pulled and Duke allowed an inherited runner to score, doubling the Nats’ deficit at 4-2. The solo bomb made it 4-3, but that would be as close as the Nats would get for the rest of the game, as the offense was stifled again. In addition to managing only five hits, the Nats failed to walk even once, and have now walked just six times in their past seven games.

Most Important Nationals Pitch: Ramiro Pena‘s two-run homer (-16.1%)

After Ryan Zimmerman let Andrelton Simmons reach on a throwing error as the game’s first batter, Pena immediately made the Nats pay. He took Karns deep to put the Braves up early. It is easy to blame Karns for today’s game, and somewhat reasonable as he took the loss and allowed more runs than the Nats scored, but he kept the team in the game, which is as much as can be asked of a rookie straight from AA.

Jun 2, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Champ of the Game: Desmond (+14.9%) was excellent, going 2-4 with two runs scored and an RBI, including his homer. Pena (+12.2%) was the top Brave, despite going 0-3 after his homer. His WPA may seem low for being on a winning team that scored six runs, but it was a team effort by Atlanta, as each offensive starter reached base at least once.

Champ of the Game: Duke (-28.1%) allowed two runs on two hits and four (!!!) walks in 0.2 innings, but it could have been worse. He allowed an inherited runner to score from Karns, and was inches from allowing a grand slam to Freddie Freeman in the sixth. Instead he was lifted with one out and two runners in scoring position, a jam that Davis was able to escape in his first-ever MLB appearance. For the Braves, Evan Gattis (-7.8%) was 0-3 with two Ks, although he walked once.

This game was a classic pitching duel. Gio Gonzalez and Tim Hudson combined to allow one earned run over 14.1 innings, and at 1-1 heading into extras, it was quite an exciting scene. However, everything fell apart late for the Nats. They squandered a golden opportunity in the ninth, and the bad version of Henry Rodriguez allowed the Braves to walk off in the bottom of the tenth. The offense dissolved again, while the bullpen was only as strong as its weakest link. There’s not much use judging this; the Nationals will never contend with their current lineup. Only when healthy can we assess where they are as a team.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Adam LaRoche‘s double (+24.0%)

Jun 2, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche (25) reacts with bench coach Randy Knorr (53) after scoring against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

With no outs and a runner on first against Craig Kimbrel, LaRoche doubled to put two runners in scoring position and seemingly give the Nationals a prime opportunity to take a very late lead. However, Ian Desmond would strike out, and Roger Bernadina grounded into a fielder’s choice that got Ryan Zimmerman thrown out at home before Danny Espinosa flew out to end the offensive opportunity in pathetic fashion.

Most Important Nationals Pitch: B.J. Upton‘s walk-off single (-29.8%)

Henry Rodriguez set this up in the most H-Rod way possible. He walked two batters and got only one out before Upton’s single scored pinch runner Jordan Schafer from second and gave the Braves the series-tying win. He has been decent this year, with a 4.00 ERA, but every outing is an adventure, to say the least. If he has more outings like his one last night, public sentiment will turn against him even more than it has.

Champ of the Game: The game’s lone bright spot was Gonzalez (+29.6%). He threw seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits and a walk while striking out seven. For the Braves, Hudson (+34.2%) was even better, with no earned runs (one unearned) in 7.1 innings with the same number of hits and walks but three fewer strikeouts.

Chump of the Game: For obvious reasons, this was Rodriguez (-37.0%). He allowed three baserunners while getting only one out and took the loss. Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman (-20.5%) was 0-4 with a strikeout.

Scenario 1: Henry Rodriguez has trouble with his command and comes up short in a pressure situation. Could We See This Coming? YES

Ryan Zimmerman is tagged out by Evan Gattis in the ninth inning of the Nats 2-1 loss to Atlanta Saturday. (Image: Daniel Shiry, USA Today)

Rodriguez was summoned to start the 10th inning of a 1-1 game, manager Davey Johnson forced into the move due to lack of options in the bullpen. Rodriguez came out throwing cheese, as per usual, but his 102-MPH fastball wasn’t finding the strike zone and he walked Atlanta’s first batter of the inning, Evan Gattis, on four pitches. After Ramiro Pena gave Washington an out by popping up a bunt, Gattis’s pinch-runner, Jordan Schafer, swiped second base.

We probably could have seen that coming too. Over Rodriguez’s career, he has allowed 38 of 40 attempted basestealers to reach their target. Speaking of Rodriguez’s ability to hold runners, Johnson told CSN’s Mark Zuckerman, “He can’t do it.”

Another walk, this one to Dan Uggla, set up Scenario 2, which is …

B.J. Upton gets the game-winning hit. Could We See This Coming? NO

Upton, making his first start since Wednesday as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez tried to get him going, entered the game hitting .145. Gonzalez moved the free agent acquisition to the eight spot in the lineup, and a chorus of boos from the Atlanta crowd greeted Upton’s every failure. The one situation where you might think Rodriguez had an advantage, but instead, Upton hit a broken-bat looper into right. Roger Bernadina made a solid throw, but Schafer got there first, scoring the winning run and sending the Braves home happy.

All this could have been avoided, meanwhile, had the Nationals taken advantage of the huge opportunity which presented itself in the top of the ninth inning. Facing Braves closer Craig Kimbrel, normally as automatic as they come, Washington caught a break, getting a leadoff broken-bat single by Ryan Zimmerman and a double by Adam LaRoche, moving runners to second and third with no outs. Which leads us to Scenario 3, namely …

The Nationals have two men in scoring position with no outs and don’t get a run home. Could We See This Coming? YES

The way the Washington offense has been going for most of the season, and even more glaringly with Bryce Harper out of the lineup, getting a run here goes from a formality to pipe dream. Ian Desmond had the first opportunity, but looked at strike three. Bernadina then hit a chopper to third which allowed the Braves to gun down ZImmerman at the plate for the second out. Danny Espinosa then ended the “threat” with a fly ball to left.

The previous eight innings were a showcase of good starting pitching, for the most part. Gio Gonzalez and Tim Hudson each cruised through the opposing batting orders, both pitchers allowing just three hits in at least seven innings of work. It was more of the same for Hudson, who has shut the Nats down routinely in his career, while Gonzalez shook off a sketchy history against Atlanta and once again, deserved more than the no-decision he got.

Perhaps the bright spot for Washington was Scenario 4, which was …

No Nationals player got hurt in this game. Could We See This Coming? NO

With the departure of Stephen Strasburg from Friday’s game after two innings and Harper officially placed on the 15-day disabled list, the Nationals’ burgeoning injury list got even more impressive. Strasburg was diagnosed with a mild lat strain, and will play it by ear in regards to his next start. Harper, meanwhile, finally made his way to the DL, still gimpy from the left knee bursitis brought on by the Dodger Stadium wall. He won’t be back before June 11.

The Nats and Braves wrap up the series on Sunday afternoon, with Washington’s Nathan Karns (0-0, 6.23 ERA) making his second major league start against Atlanta’s Paul Maholm (6-4, 3.74).