Nov 29, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder B.J. Upton addresses the media after his signing during a press conference at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Now, we have already looked at the pros and cons (twice) of adding Michael Bourn. I still am in the “no” camp. I think there are options out there that are less of a long-term investment and less of a risk for that money. General Manager Mike Rizzo says that he wants a dynamic lead off man, which means Bourn is definitely in the mix and that scares me because of the investment that will be necessary.

If Upton is getting five years, you have to think Bourn will want at least that. The problem is that Bourn is two years older than Upton. He is about to turn 30 which means that a five year deal will take him until he is at least 35. Carl Crawford signed his deal at age 30. Chone Figgins signed his after age 30. These are the worst case scenarios but it is the biggest image I have in my mind of what Bourn will be. Probably due to my watching way too many Seattle Mariners games the last three years.

With Upton signing first, it means there are even more teams in the running for Bourn, even though much of the rumored market for both players was pretty much the same. Like I mentioned already, there are other options available. I would much rather see a short term fixture like Angel Pagan or Shane Victorino than I would a five year contract on Bourn. But Rizzo has been right before, maybe he has something else under his sleeve. Too bad the Miami Marlins don’t have a center fielder with a big contract. That could have been an easy solution.

As for Upton signing with an NL East team, it doesn’t really worry me much. Sure, the Braves are probably the team best set to challenge the Nationals reign on the National League East, but I’m not sure Upton makes them that much better as we stand today. He definitely makes them better, I just don’t know if it puts them past the Nationals, and really any exercise in comparing two teams is best to do once Spring Training starts or at least when both teams are done their improvements. We know the Nationals will add at least one major league player to their team as we stand whether it be a pitcher, outfielder or infielder. We can assume the Braves aren’t done either.

Upton signing with the Braves only means that the market for Bourn changes and perhaps even intensifies. When competition for a Scott Boras client emerges, the only loser is the team looking for value. I don’t know if the Nationals can afford to have an outfield that includes Jayson Werth and Michael Bourn signed to big contracts especially when they will have other holes to fill and other big parts of the team to sign to long-term deals.

Buckle up, folks. The off-season is just getting started.

I already talked about why I don’t want Michael Bourn in that spot, but who else can come in and step into that role? Let’s take a look.

Sept. 30, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Shane Victorino (8) steals second in the fourth inning of the game against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers won 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

B.J. Upton

Upton is a sought-after free agent who, like Bourn, will get a lot of offers. Sure, Upton has hit lead off in the past but he isn’t exactly a prototypical lead off hitter. But he can play center field and even though he saw a drop in his walks last year, does know how to take one. I’d rather see the money they would spend on Bourn on Upton but Upton isn’t even my first choice.

Angel Pagan

Pagan was just the lead off man for the World Series champions and also plays center field. It would seem that the Nationals are picking the right year to fill this hole. Pagan is better than a lot of people give him credit for and while he may just stay with the Giants, he will probably make less money than Upton and Bourn which makes him even more desirable.

Melky Cabrera

Cabrera’s value is at an all-time low due to the failed drug test but he still has value and could fit in to the Nationals lineup. He is more of a corner outfielder which makes his fit in Washington a little less ideal, but even in his down seasons has shown he can get on base. It is a gamble, however. When he’s been bad, he’s not been a lead off caliber hitter. If last season wasn’t all smoke and mirrors, he could be a decent addition at a good price.

Shane Victorino

For some reason, no one thinks Victorino is a capable major leaguer anymore. However, if you look at what he has done recently, sure it is a drop off from where he was but he is a secondary Pagan. Low-power, high-OBP guy who can play center field. That is what the Nationals need and he will also take less of a commitment and could be in place until Brian Goodwin is ready for prime time.

Will Venable

Venable is not a free agent and is property of the San Diego Padres. However, I think he can be a valuable commodity for the Nationals. Of course, what he’s worth will depend on what the Nationals would have to give up but I think that something would be able to get done. If the Nationals are not willing to get into bidding wars or they can’t get their guy, they will look at trades and this guy should be near the top of their list.

Of course, there are other people who can come up and of course Ian Desmond is still a possibility as well, but he seemed to improve once he was moved out of that spot.

As Bowden writes:

There have been rumors of a B.J. Upton for Michael Morse deal, too. This is a trade that would give the Rays an improvement in the middle of their lineup and a player they can control beyond this year. The Nats could put Upton in center and move Bryce Harper to the corner outfield where he belongs.

On its surface, such a deal appears unlikely for a variety of reasons.

First and foremost, while adding Morse would provide a big improvement in production in the middle of the Rays’ batting lineup, it would simultaneously create a hole in the middle of the Nationals’ lineup.

Morse is batting .290/.309/.413 on the year, through 162 plate appearances (over 38 games) after missing the season’s first two months due to a strained lat muscle. He’s added just four home runs and 18 RBI in that span, but has also struck out a concerning 39 times. He struggled upon first returning, showing signs that his swing was late as his timing was simply off from missing so many games early on this season. He’s picked things up since, but is still far off the expectations instilled from the superb 2011 campaign that he was able to put together (which, to refresh our memories, consisted of a final .303/.360/.550 line with 31 HR and 95 RBI over 575 plate appearances).

B.J. Upton might land in Washington at some point in the next few months, but a deal at the trading deadline just simply might not make sense for the Nationals. (Image Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Upton, meanwhile, is hitting .247/.308/.378 so far, through 327 plate appearances (76 games). He’s added eight home runs and 30 RBI. His power production and on base rate are both down from last year, but his batting average is actually the highest it has been since the 2008 season. He’s largely been batting at or near the top of the Rays’ lineup for much of the past few seasons and has never really developed into the middle of the order threat that some thought he could be.

An added concern, Morse is under team control through next season at a reasonable $6.75 Million. Upton, however, is slated to hit free agency this winter and it’s unclear exactly what type of deal he could possible command on the open market. Based on the way the free agent market has played out for the past few winters, it seems relatively safe to say that Upton could end up with a deal that pays him in excess of what Morse will earn. Washington has long been connected to Upton – due to his ability to play center field and his childhood ties to Ryan Zimmerman – and the team may very well pursue him once he reaches free agency. But, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to make a big deal to acquire him now, at the cost of a player like Morse, to then hand him the same contract they might this winter.

Furthermore, while Bowden’s basic point (adding Upton would let the team move Harper back to a corner outfield spot) is valid, he fails to factor in all of the variables, most notably the pending return of Jayson Werth. Once Werth is back in the lineup in a few weeks, he will likely return to his spot in right field in an everyday role. There has been ample speculation about who would be better suited to move over to center field once Werth and Harper are both in the lineup together. Many have argued Werth is the better option up the middle, but Harper’s youth and athleticism make him a stronger candidate to cover more ground out there – even if it isn’t his natural position or where he is best served playing long term.

If the Nationals were to bring aboard a player such as Upton, it would necessitate Werth and Harper manning the corners. This would ultimately have further implications on the remainder of the lineup – notably reduced playing time for Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel, Steve Lombardozzi, and Tyler Moore. To some, limited at bats for Bernadina and Ankiel would actually be a good thing for this Nationals team. However, both Lombardozzi and Moore have become important pieces to this team on the year and are quickly developing into fan favorites in the Washington area. Both have seen extensive playing time in the outfield, the result of efforts to get their bats in the lineup more frequently. Neither seems likely to be relegated strictly to bench duty.

Upton might prove to be an option for the Nationals this winter, though that is another discussion for another time, but he doesn’t appear to be the best option this team could potentially pursue before the trade deadline comes up in a few weeks. With Werth’s pending return, the team already has another quality outfielder set to re-join the lineup. And the fact remains, Upton would not be able to provide the type of production that Morse is capable of, meaning a potential deal could actually hinder the Washington offense further. According to Bowden the Rays have denied any talks have taken place between the two sides, perhaps things are simply better off that way.