The two best sources for these stats are Espinosa’s Fangraphs page and his Baseball Reference page. These pages have many of the more in-depth stats we can use to analyze Espinosa. The main thing we can look for is stats that differ significantly from his 2012 or career stats, and see what they could have changed in how he is playing.

May 7, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals second baseman Danny Espinosa (8) singles during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Looking through these pages, a few stats jump out. Espinosa’s walk rate has plummeted to 3% from his career 7.5%. However, confusingly, his strikeout rate has also dropped precipitously, from 26.6% career and 28.7% in 2012 to just 21.8% this year. Given those two, these next stats should not be a surprise: Espinosa’s swing rate and contact rate have both jumped, by about 3.5% and 4% respectively, depending on whether you look at Fangraphs or Pitch f/x, both of which can be found on Espinosa’s Fangraphs page. These four stats together indicate that Espinosa is swinging more and getting the bat on the ball more, which is why his strikeout rate hasn’t gone up with his swing percentage.

Putting more pitches into play would usually be good for a player’s batting average, but Espinosa’s batting average on balls in play is .225, far below his career .301. While baBIP is usually tied to luck, and some of this may be luck, the fact that he is making more contact could mean that he is making different and more easily fielded contact. Indeed, Espinosa’s line drive rate has dropped from 18.9% in 2012 to 12.3%. Line drives are much more likely to result in hits than ground balls or fly balls, and a bad line drive rate means Espinosa is not hitting the ball well.

There is no reason to believe that the way he is hitting pitches he usually swings at differently, but let’s look at the pitches he is swinging at that he has not in the past. Fangraphs says Espinosa is swinging more at pitches both inside (+2.7%) and outside (+1.7%) the zone. Pitch f/x disagrees, and says Espinosa’s swing rate on pitches in the zone has increased by only 0.6%, while his swing rate on pitches outside the zone has increased by 4.6%. If the two metrics are disagreeing over whether some pitches are balls or strikes, it means that they are likely on the edge of the strike zone. Espinosa is trying to make more contact by swinging at those pitches, but they result in outs when he does.

May 4, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Washington Nationals second baseman Danny Espinosa (8) at bat against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at PNC Park. The Washington Nationals won 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

What all of these stats tell us is happening is that Espinosa is swinging at more borderline pitches, trying to make contact, and successfully putting them into play. His desire to make contact is leading him to make bad contact on those borderline pitches, as his line drive percentage has dropped by over a third while his ground ball to fly ball ratio is nearly identical, which has led to his low baBIP and his low average overall. His decreased walk and strikeout rates are a result of this as well, as pitches that would have rung him up or been ball four are being put in the field of play instead.

He should work to lower the rate at which he swings at pitches outside of the zone, which will up his anemic walk rate. However, being more hesitant to swing at borderline pitches will also decrease his swing percentage on pitches inside the zone, bringing both back to career norm levels. He should see a rebound in his baBIP when he stops swinging at and hitting outside pitches poorly and instead makes better contact on pitches he can drive, which will consequently bring up his overall average.

In conclusion, it looks like Espinosa is simply being a bit more aggressive than usual in the early season and putting emphasis on making contact without consideration to the quality of that contact.  When he fixes his habits, he will likely return to the same numbers he usually has: a high strikeout rate and an average in the .240s, unless his higher contact rate remains when he stops swinging at pitches on the edge of the strike zone, which would increase his average and drop his strikeouts. While it is natural to be concerned about Espinosa’s current play, he has started seasons slowly before. He was hitting .189 on May 9th, 2012, and .214 on May 10th, 2011. These stats do not tell us whether he had the same issue early in other season, but we do know that he can rebound from a slow start, and is doing so now: He is 10 for his last 31. With a similar average at this time last year, he was able to finish hitting .247, and there is little reason to believe he can’t do it again.

Some may doubt the usefulness or accuracy of these stats, but they are criminally underused. Normal stats can tell you how a player is doing, but these can tell you why. Hopefully you’ll see in these what I do: an opportunity to better understand a player’s performance.

Inconsistent continues to be the word that best describes Gio’s 2013 season. Gonzalez threw eight innings of one hit ball against the Cincinnati Reds on the April 25th, and then was hammered by the Braves for 6 runs in his last outing. Four batters into his start against the Pirates, it looked like another short and ineffective start for Gio. After Starling Marte led off the game with a home run(Gio’s 2nd consecutive start with a leadoff homerun) Jordy Mercer hit a double, Andrew McCutchen reached on an error, and Gaby Sanchez worked a walk. Gio, however, would only give up one run and escaped the jam by striking out Russell Martin and Michael McKenry and getting Brandon Inge to ground out. Aside from Martin’s RBI double in the fifth, Gio was outstanding the rest of his outing. He lowered his ERA to 4.97 and picked up his third win of the young season.

After the early one run deficit, the offense was able to quickly tie the game on a 2nd inning sacrifice fly off the bat of Danny Espinosa. Espinosa wasn’t done however. In the fourth inning, he gave Gio a 3-1 lead with a line drive two run home-run to left, his 3rd of the year. After the Pirates trimmed the deficit to one run in the fifth, Tyler Moore hit a hanging slider from right hander Bryan Morris over the left field wall for a three run jack, opening the lead to 6-2. Rafael Soriano pitched a scoreless ninth to seal the series victory for Washington.

Next Game:
May 7th, 7:05 ET

RHP Jordan Zimmermann(5-1, 1.64) vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez(3-2, 1.82)

Mar 9, 2013; Melbourne, FL, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan (8) is forced out by Washington Nationals second baseman Danny Espinosa (8) during the top of the fifth inning of a spring training game at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

ZiPS: 603 AB, .235/.308/.403, 66 RBI, 79 RS, 17 SB, 20 HR

MLB.com: 540 AB, .252/.307/.407, 61 RBI, 74 RS, 18 SB, 17 HR

CBSSports: 585 AB, .239/.299/.402, 64 RBI, 77 RS, 21 SB, 20 HR

ESPN Fantasy: 590 AB, .242/.317/.412, 63 RBI, 80 RS, 19 SB, 20 HR

Averages: 580 AB, .242/.308/.406, 64 RBI, 78 RS, 19 SB, 19 HR

These numbers are nothing to scoff at, but they aren’t representative of the talent Espinosa has. He can hit much better than .242, and watch out if he does. He hit .300 for the month of July last season, but simply needs to put his everything together for longer stretches of time. If he could manage even .275, he could be an All-Star candidate. However, he has hurdles to overcome before he reaches that level. In addition to his strikeouts, he must deal with a torn rotator cuff in his shoulder that hampered him last season.  He did not have surgery on the shoulder this offseason, and claims to feel healthy now, but the risk of re-injury is real. MLB.com cited the shoulder as the reason Espinosa would not have 575+ ABs this season, as some project. Despite showing flashes of the greatness he is capable of, if Espinosa cannot show improvement, he may find his job in jeopardy.

Top prospect Anthony Rendon projects to be a third baseman in the majors, but played second base in college, and has impressed in Spring Training. If Espinosa slumps and Rendon is hot in the minors after a few months, it would be very tempting for the Nats to call Rendon up and give him the second base job. While Espinosa is only 26 and under team control until 2017, this upcoming season could be a make-or-break one for him. It’s agressive to project that he will make the jump Desmond did, but our confidence in him is high, and we expect him to exceed the numbers he’s projected for. With his power and steals, he’s a decent fantasy 2B, but won’t be much more than top 15-20 unless he can cut down on his strikeouts and increase his average. As a Nat, he will stay a great defender, and even if he fails to improve, will be a nice sparkplug with power and speed at the bottom of the lineup.