March 17, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees second baseman

Washington has been linked to Bourgeois in recent weeks, though it has been reported that the team has inquired about his availability multiple times since December’s Winter Meetings. Earlier this month, I took a closer look at Bourgeois and the potential value he could offer should the Nationals get into serious discussions to acquire him. While he’s a player that would certainly offer some degree of value (strong defensive versatility, speed on the base paths, under team control for four more seasons), I concluded that ultimately he was your typical 4-A player who wouldn’t necessarily be better than the team’s current in-house options.

The role that Bourgeois fills in Kansas City remains unclear – as the Royals were expected to give Lorenzo Cain an opportunity to fill the center field void on an everyday basis. But his role with the Royals is really of no concern to the Nationals at this point. It’s the cost to acquire him that seems most relevant.

According to MLB Trade Rumors on Tuesday afternoon, the Astros will receive left-hander Kevin Chapman and a player to be named later from the Royals in exchange for Bourgeois and Quintero. Chapman was a 4th Round pick in the 2010 Draft (he had been drafted twice before, but didn’t sign, which I always find interesting) and has moved relatively quickly through Kansas City’s minor league system. In 2011 he split his time between High-A and Double-A, totaling a 1-4 record, 4.94 ERA, and a 13.1 K/9 in 62.0 relief innings.

Baseball America ranked Chapman as the 18th best prospect in Kansas City’s system, projecting he’ll continue on his fast track to the Majors. Chapman was a reliever through his collegiate career, making the transition to professional baseball a little easier in some regards. Nathaniel Stoltz at Seedlings to Stars published a scouting report on Chapman Tuesday evening, a solid read for those unfamiliar with the lefty, and described his motion pretty clearly:

A tall southpaw, Chapman has a deceptive motion that includes a high set position and leg kick with a low three-quarters arm slot. It’s sort of a less dramatic version of the motion that made former Yankees reliever Jeff Nelson a devastating middle man in the 1990s.

Chapman could prove to be a solid acquisition for Houston, a team in the beginning stages of a major rebuilding project. However, reports late Tuesday seem to indicate that the PTBNL is ultimately going to be the big piece of this deal. Houston’s GM, Jeff Luhnow, told reporters that the PTBNL will be the “key component of the deal” but it seems that “it will be awhile before the player is named”. Many have already publicly speculated on whether someone from last June’s Draft could be involved – as any player drafted last year cannot officially be named in a trade until one year from the date they signed their first contract.

After learning a little about Chapman, I started to wonder what a comparable piece would have been had the Nationals been the ones on the other side of this trade. While it’s not always the perfect comparison, this led me to BA’s Top 30 Nationals prospects and to Daniel Rosenbaum.

Rosenbaum checks in at #22 on BA’s list, though it’s worth noting that this year’s Prospect Handbook was sent to the publishers before the Gio Gonzalez trade was completed (which, again, cost the organization four top prospects). He’s a left-hander who was the team’s 22nd Round pick in the 2009 Draft, who like Chapman, has moved quickly through the team’s minor league system. He split 2011 between High-A and Double-A, posting a 9-6 record with a 2.52 ERA in 171.1 innings (25 starts, 1 relief appearance). His peripheral numbers aren’t quite as strong as Chapmans (only a 7.1 K/9) but they are still respectable (1.121 WHIP). But Rosenbaum is also being utilized primarily as a starter, not out of the bullpen. Positional value is relevant here, so perhaps Rosenbaum could be considered the superior prospect by comparison.

But, it’s a starting point and a worthwhile place to ask the question – if Bourgeois cost the Nationals a player of Rosenbaum’s caliber, would the deal be worth making?

The short answer is no. Given the current state of the Nationals organization, quality starting pitching depth is of more value right now than a player that may prove to be nothing more than a quality bench option. Of course, the deal with Kansas City does involve another player on each side of the equation (Quintero and the PTBNL) so there are extra considerations we’re not exactly taking into account here. If you asked me if a Rosenbaum plus a lesser prospect package could have landed the Nationals Bourgeois and another non-Quintero piece then maybe my view on the possibility would have been different. It all depends what those other pieces turn out to be.

Bottom line, Bourgeois was never a viable option for the Nationals in their quest to address center field. Had the team further pursued acquiring him from Houston, it’s possible the price would have ultimately been too much to swallow. But the price that Kansas City paid to acquire him is worth noting. Should Washington solve the center field problem via a trade, understanding what it cost to acquire an option of Bourgeois’ caliber may help predict what it may eventually take to land a true resolution.

March 05, 2012; Port St Lucie, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports kept the John Lannan rumblings coming Tuesday afternoon, Tweeting that a deal involving John Lannan is likely. The Red Sox, Tigers and Astros are all reportedly watching Lannan, so Washington has multiple suitors should they part ways with the 27-year old.

The team to take most note of in that group is the Astros. Perhaps Lannan is involved in a deal for center fielder Jason Bourgeois, whom the Nationals have inquired on multiple times since the Winter Meetings. The deal could potentially help both parties, as the Nationals have long needed a center fielder, and the Astros have long needed, well, just about everything, but pitching in particular.

Many have speculated that the Nats would seek prospects should they not land the center fielder they desire, so contending teams with deep farm systems such as the Red Sox and Tigers could also make some sense as trade partners, though acquiring Bourgeois from the Astros would presumably be the preferable option.

The Mets and Padres reportedly both had interest in Lannan at one point in time, but are not interested in adding his $5 million salary to their respective payrolls.

As for those of you still hoping that Gerardo Parra is coming to Washington, there were also further reports yesterday regarding the outfielder

Mar. 6, 2012; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Jason Bourgeois (11) hits a double in the first inning against the New York Mets at Osceola County Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

In 93 games for the Astros last season, Bourgeois batted .294/.323/.357 in 252 plate appearances. He doesn’t hit for much power – only one home run, 8 doubles, 2 triples – but he does provide value on the bases – 31 for 37 on stolen base attempts (83.8%). He is capable of playing all three outfield positions but has spent more than 50% of his career innings in center field.

But he’s 30 years old (literally about two weeks older than me) and he’s played for a number of organizations in his career. The 2000 Draft selection (2nd Round, Texas) has been claimed on waivers twice, was selected in the Rule 5 Draft in December 2005, and had been coming off a string of three consecutive minor league contracts. He’d been given numerous chances in the past with little success. The bulk of the six previous seasons was spent at Triple-A.

Bourgeois is your typical 4-A prospect – too good for the minor leagues, not quite good enough for the Majors – who happened to have one solid season (in part-time duty).

To a team like the Astros – in the midst of what should be a rebuilding process worth keeping an eye on – Bourgeois would ultimately have the most value. Most of their projected starting outfield (namely Jordan Schafer and J.D. Martinez) is young and will likely be parts of the organization’s future plans. Bourgeois’ versatility in the outfield and offensive potential give them a quality fourth outfielder who could see regular playing time in an effort to give everyone adequate rest and keep them healthy. He’s a solid bench piece who is still making just over the league minimum for at least one more season. In other words, Houston’s just not going to give him away.

That is where this idea falls apart for me. And I’m not alone in that thinking.

Eric Seidman at FanGraphs presented a very convincing argument that aligns with my reasoning for being against such a potential deal. Bourgeois doesn’t provide any added value over the current in-house options.

Much of Seidman’s argument revolves around the absence of Bryce Harper on the Major League roster. As most would seemingly agree at this point, having Harper spend a month or two in the minor leagues is likely in his best interests. Given the current makeup of the roster (and other payroll related concerns) the Nationals’ best outfield lineup would consist of Michael Morse and Jayson Werth in the outfield corners. Once Harper arrives, Werth would slide over to center field. Whomever fills that role while Harper is in the minor leagues is merely filling it on a temporary basis.

Both Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina represent in-house options to fill that need in center field at least as adequately as Bourgeois could. In fact, both arguably represent better options.

Ankiel, while a limited offensive player at this point in his career, is a more rounded bat in the lineup. He struggled last year in his first season in Washington, hitting .239/.296/.363 with 9 HR and 37 RBI in 415 plate appearances. He doesn’t have Bourgeois’ speed, but has far more experience and possesses a superior arm in the outfield while providing the same versatility. He re-signed with the Nationals late in the offseason and will make just $1 Million if he is able to make the 25-man roster.

Bernadina, meanwhile, is a career .242/.304/.364 hitter with 18 HR and 76 RBI in 889 plate appearances over the past four seasons. He’s out of options, so he would need to clear waivers before the team could send him to the minor leagues and there is no certainty that would happen. His drawback has always been his offensive potential as he never hit well in the minor leagues (.266/.351/.388 in 805 career games). That said, there does seem to be a growing contingent of Nationals fans who believe that with an opportunity for consistent playing time those numbers would improve. Bernadina is also a solid defensive outfielder, despite what most of the advanced metrics claim, with a number of memorable catches in the Nationals Park outfield.

Seidman ultimately summed up the situation best, after noting a few additional statistics of his own on the subject:

In looking at those numbers I struggle to see any reason to actually trade something from the Nats system to acquire Bourgeois. He may be a more natural fit in center than Ankiel, but there isn’t enough evidence to bear out the advantage of playing him at the position over Bernadina. And considering that, by most accounts Harper is going to play for the Nationals this season, why bother trading for a two-month player, let alone one that isn’t any better than players already on the roster?

Players know that in some instances, they need to focus on winning playing time in Spring Training. In many of these situations, players will ultimately perform under that pressure better than they do once the games and statistics actually start to count. Right now, we don’t really know what the team is going to get from either Ankiel or Bernadina this season. There’s no way we could.

But sound reason seems to indicate that the Nationals would be better suited standing pat, rather than seriously pursuing Bourgeois to play center field, especially if he’d only be playing there for the next two months.