September 19, 2012; Washington, D.C., USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher John Lannan (31) pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

This comes as no surprise for Lannan and Flores. Lannan, now 28, started on Opening Day twice for the Nats, owns a career 4.01 ERA, and made $5 million last season, spent almost all of the season at AAA Syracuse. The team chose to go with Ross Detwiler over him for the fifth spot in the rotation, and he made only six major league starts, most of those coming as Stephen Strasburg‘s replacement at the end of the season. He would have received a raise from his salary this season through arbitration, and the Nationals were unwilling to pay that much for him to stay in AAA for another season. He was the second-longest tenured National, behind only Ryan Zimmerman, but now figures to draw interest from teams like the Royals and Mets.

Flores, also 28, came to the Nats as a Rule 5 draft pick from the Mets in 2007, the same season he made his MLB debut. He had been a fairly highly regarded prospect, but was 23 years old and still playing in A ball. He played decently in the majors, with a combined .252 average over his first two seasons. He was hitting .301 29 games into the 2009 season when he suffered a stress fracture in his shoulder that caused him to miss the rest of the season. Repeated setbacks caused him to miss the entire 2010 season as well. He finally returned in 2011, but was not the same player, hitting .209 in 30 games. In 2012, he was given a chance to become the team’s number one catcher after Wilson Ramos tore his ACL in May, but failed to take advantage of that opportunity, hitting .213 in 83 games. With the acquisition of Kurt Suzuki from Oakland in August, Flores was made expendable. He made $815,000 last season, and would likely have received a similar or slightly higher amount in 2013. He has already drawn interest from the Mets, and figures to receive calls from a few other catcher-needy teams as well.

Gorzelanny’s non-tender came as a bit more of a surprise. He was acquired from the Cubs before the 2011 season in exchange for prospects Michael Burgess, A.J. Morris, and Graham Hicks. Burgess hit .259 as a 24-year-old in AA last season, the 26-year-old Morris missed all of the 2011 season with an injury but had a 2.24 ERA in 52.1 IP in High A last year, and Graham Hicks recently returned to the Nats as a minor league free agent. Gorzelanny was an effective reliever with the Nats, throwing to a 2.88 ERA in 72.0 IP last season, but made $4 million last season and was going to receive a raise, a hefty cost for a reliever. However, with Gorzelanny’s becoming a free agent, the Nationals now have no left-handed relievers on their roster. In addition to Gorzelanny, Sean Burnett and Mike Gonzalez are free agents, but the Nationals could conceivably re-sign all three, or sign any other free agent relievers in order to put lefties in their pen.

So to answer the question of whether or not it’d be smart to keep Lannan as a rotation candidate or even as a depth player, let’s take a look at what $5-million can fetch you out on the free agent market.

The Nationals’ decision on John Lannan is more complex than people think. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Starting Pitching

Yes, we know the Nationals already have outstanding starting pitching. However, pitching is perhaps the one commodity in baseball that you can truly never have enough of. This holds true especially if the pitcher you’re adding is a mid-to-top of the rotation pitcher like Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez to step in and pitch in the middle or back of your rotation. Though $5-million is not even enough to fund two months of their services, it’d certainly be worth leaving in the budget if the Nationals decide that they want to form an Adonis-like starting rotation.

The Nationals currently have four men listed on their rotation depth chart: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler. In the event that Davey Johnson wants to go with a five-man rotation, the Nationals will either need to retain John Lannan, or put that $5-million towards another arm because the Nationals literally don’t have a fifth starting pitcher otherwise. Even if it’s not a Greinke or a Sanchez, there are other options out there at more affordable prices. Perhaps the Nationals decide to go after Brandon McCarthy or, to a lesser extent, call the Royals and make a deal for Bruce Chen.

Bullpen Help

Unfortunately, $5-mil doesn’t buy you what it used to in the relief market. With players like Brandon League and Jonathan Broxton getting 3-year, $21-million pacts with the Dodgers and Reds respectively, the Nationals would not be guaranteed a dominant presence without paying out of pocket. However, someone coming off of injury such as Brian Wilson could potentially see a pay cut coming off injury, and if the rumors around a potential Michael Morse trade are true, the Nats would have a new fan-favorite to fill his place (though let’s be honest, you can never replace the beast – here’s my sappy fan moment). To a lesser extent, relievers such as Francisco Cordero, Kyle Farnsworth and Brandon Lyon could be value pickups that fit that budget.

Adam LaRoche

Again touching on the possibility of a Michael Morse trade, yesterday’s acquisition of Denard Span essentially decided that if Michael Morse is wearing a Nationals uniform in 2013, he’ll do so while playing first base. However, if the Nationals decide they want to pay a little more to upgrade on the defensive side of the ball while maintaining that offensive presence in the lineup, Adam LaRoche is really the only free-agent option available. Players like Mike Napoli and Kevin Youkilis are downgrades on defense, and neither was as much of a presence as LaRoche in the lineup last season. Once again, $5-million dollars won’t bring LaRoche to DC, but when you have multiple players (Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond to name a couple) that you may want to extend on top of adding free agents, every penny counts.

Bench Help

So, John Lannan is probably more valuable than a mediocre pine-rider. However, if you’re a fan of the Washington Nationals, you know the value of a quality bench player (Chad Tracy, Steve Lombardozzi, Roger Bernadina to name a few). Mike Rizzo and company could look to add to the “Goon Squad” by signing the likes of a Ryan Raburn, Chone Figgins or Rick Ankiel. Someone of Chad Tracy-quality earns about a million per season, so non-tendering John Lannan would essentially give the Nationals some budget space to patch all the minor holes.

What have we learned?

We learned that $5-million probably won’t add a starting player that is of Washington Nationals quality. So, let’s go over the scenarios in which it would be smart and not smart to tender Lannan a contract.

Smart

If Davey Johnson wants his 5-man rotation and Mike Rizzo doesn’t want to spend upwards of $8-million on that arm. Lannan can hold his own in a big league rotation (4-1, 4.16 ERA in 2012), and you won’t notice a substantial upgrade unless that player’s salary is also substantially greater.

Unsmart

If Lannan is going to be stuck down in Syracuse. I know that I previously said that pitching is the one commodity you can truly never have enough of, but every saying has a rebuttal. In this case, the rebuttal is, “Yeah, unless you’re paying $5-million.” If depth is what the Nats want, they’d be better off making signings like the Zach Duke signing they made last year. In the case of depth, you look for “AAAA” players that will hold their own in the bigs, but aren’t really of much value; minor-league signings.

So to summarize, Lannan probably provides as much individual value as any free agent would at $5-million. On top of that, he provides potential trade value. However, in terms of the bigger picture, the Nationals would probably be better off taking that money and putting it towards a larger investment like another quality starting pitcher or Adam LaRoche.

In all likelihood, Lannan is a free agent by this time tomorrow. It really is a shame to see him go considering the history he’s had with this team. He has the most wins in franchise history, and has also made the second-most Opening Day starts (2) in franchise history trailing only Livan Herandez (3). Lannan will almost-surely find a place in another team’s rotation (some have speculated the Mets as a potential fit, I say the Twins), but regardless, it will at least a little bit sad to say good bye to #31.

Sep 12, 2012; Flushing, NY,USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher John Lannan (31) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Starting pitcher John Lannan had what can only be described as a very strange year with the Nationals. Lannan was the opening day starter in 2010, and the second guy in the rotation in 2011. He broke in the Nationals in 2007, and has been a regular member of the starting rotation since 2008. He was eligible for arbitration for 2012, and was awarded a five million dollar contract for the year.

Just before the end of spring training in 2012, when it appeared he had a spot in the starting rotation locked up, it was announced that Lannan would be sent to the minors to begin the year and Ross Detwiler would be the Nationals fifth starter. Detwiler had no minor league options left, and Lannan did. Lannan was sent to AAA Syracuse. He did not, understandably, react well to the reassignment. He demanded that the Nationals trade him, but his first couple of starts in Syracuse did not go well. Whether it was mental or mechanical, John did not pitch well, which did not help attract interest from other teams. No trade was made, and Lannan was pitching in the minors.

Once Lannan settled down in Syracuse, he posted numbers there over the course of the minor league season comparable to his major league statistics.

Lannan pitched six games for the Nationals this year, going 4-1 with an ERA of 4.13. He got his first two starts with the team as a result of the new rule that allows teams to bring up a player from the minors when the club has a doubleheader to use for that situation. The team then has to send the player back to the minors after he is used in the doubleheader.

Lannan’s first appearance with the Nationals was in the second game of a doubleheader against the Braves on July 21st. Lannan pitched very well and got the Nationals a very important win against the Braves. He then pitched on August 3rd in the first game of a doubleheader against the Marlins, getting another win.

Lannan made the team for good as part of the September callups when the rosters expanded. He provided valuable starts for the Nats after Strasburg was shut down and removed from the starting rotation. He pitched four games in September, with a record of two wins, a loss and a no decision in those starts.

Lannan’s future with the Nationals is unknown. He is arbitration eligible again in 2013, and it is unknown whether the Nats will offer him arbitration or trade him in the offseason. Much depends on whether the Nationals sign another starting pitcher.

Season Highlight: July 21st in a start against the Braves. The Nationals were in the middle of a four game homestand against the Braves, who were nipping at the Nats’ heels in the standings in the NL East. The Nats had lost the first two games against the Braves. Lannan pitched the second game of the doubleheader that day, got the win, and righted the Nats’ ship. The Nats beat the Braves the next day, getting a split against the Braves and maintaining their lead over them in the NL East race. Lannan’s pitching performance that evening was a big pick me up for the team that badly needed it.