District on Deck » Kurt Suzuki

Fantasy Preview: Kurt Suzuki

Andrew Flax — Sat, 09 Mar 2013 13:30:28 +0000

Last August, thanks to a slew of injuries, the Nationals had started five different players at catcher: Wilson Ramos, Jesus Flores, Carlos Maldonado, Sandy Leon, and Jhonatan Solano. As the team geared up for the playoffs, GM Mike Rizzo decided to acquire catcher Kurt Suzuki from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for catching prospect David Freitas. Suzuki was considered one of the best young catchers in baseball at the age of 24 in 2008, when he put up 4.4 bWAR, but steadily decreased from there, and was hitting only .218 through 75 games with the Athletics in 2012. He was rejuvenated with the Nats, however, hitting .267/.321/.404 in 43 games to go along with stellar defense. Now he is poised to battle it out with Wilson Ramos for the starting job. If the change of scenery allows Suzuki to continue hitting well, he should lock down the job. However, our projections are less optimistic:

March 05, 2013; Viera, FL, USA; Washington Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki (left) beats the throw to Houston Astros first baseman Brett Wallace (right) for an infield hit during a spring training game at Space Coast Stadium. Washington defeated Houston 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

ZiPS: 483 AB, .263/.308/.400, 62 RBI, 54 RS, 3 SB, 12 HR

MLB.com: 377 AB, .236/.271/.318, 39 RBI, 33 RS, 1 SB, 5 HR

CBSSports: 360 AB, .253/.310/.386, 49 RBI, 44 RS, 1 SB, 10 HR

ESPN Fantasy: 447 AB, .255/.308/.378, 56 RBI, 49 RS, 2 SB, 11 HR

Averages: 417 AB, .252/.299/.371, 52 RBI, 45 RS, 2 SB, 10 HR

Obviously, those numbers don’t pop out at you, except maybe in how poor they are. A sub-.300 OBP will not help you get a starting job on any MLB team, but even these underwhelming stats represent a major improvement from his totals last season. However, they are also a regression from the numbers he put up with the Nationals, and just below his career averages. While aiming for the middle is a tried-and-true prediction tactic, our official DoD projection will be a little more optimistic. Suzuki actually hit .301 with a .837 batting average in September and October of last season, and while that screams “small sample size”, it’s no coincidence that he did significantly better with the Nats. However, the overall projection for him is tricky. I expect Wilson Ramos to claim the starting job, despite a good performance from Suzuki. However, if Ramos should struggle or suffer another injury, Suzuki would be a decent fantasy option if he can carry over his momentum from 2012. If the two catchers split playing time, Suzuki will be all but useless. On the Nats, his most valuable asset may be his veteran presence and game-calling, supplemented by his past experience with Gio Gonzalez and Dan Haren in Oakland, and he will continue to leave his mark on the team, regardless of playing time.

Predicting The 2013 Nationals, Part One: The Catchers

Jared Book — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 17:47:33 +0000

The Washington Nationals had some trouble with injuries at catcher last year that exposed some depth issues and made the loss of Derek Norris a little harder to handle. This year, however, it appears to be a position of strength where they added Kurt Suzuki to form a 1-2 punch with Wilson Ramos as he recovers from his injuries and the players thrown to the fire last year have some valuable Major League experience.

Oct 12, 2012; Washington, DC, USA; Washington National catcher Kurt Suzuki (24) forces out St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma (38) at home during the fifth inning of game five of the 2012 NLDS at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout this series, I will be noting players on the 40-man roster and confirmed non-roster invitees. At catcher, there is no more Jesus Flores, but there is still some depth in the organization.

In the first installment of our “Predicting the Nationals” series, we take a look at the men behind the mask using ZiPS (published at Fangraphs) and Bill James’s pre-season predictions (from the Bill James Handbook).

A note before we begin: Obviously, playing time is not totally adjusted. Just take the rates as if they had those at bats. I don’t think there will be 1,634 plate appearances from the catcher position. This is just to get an idea of what the major prediction systems are offering for the Nationals this season.

Kurt Suzuki
ZiPS: 509 PA, .263/.308/.400, 12 HR, 62 RBI, 5.1 BB%, 11.8 K%, 2.2 WAR
James: 424 PA, .247/.306/.360, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 6.4 BB%, 14.3 K%

Wilson Ramos
ZiPS : 311 PA, .260/.314/.411, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 6.8 BB%, 17.4 K%, 1.6 WAR
James: 486 PA, .269/.324/.426, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 6.8 BB%, 15.0 K%

Jhonatan Solano
ZiPS : 264 PA, .247/.281/.360, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 4.2 BB%, 14.8 K%, 0.8 WAR

Sandy Leon
ZiPS: 374 PA, .240/.300/.338, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 7.8 BB%, 20.9 K%, 1.4 WAR

Carlos Maldonado (Non-Roster)
ZiPS: 176 PA, .200/.282/.303, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 9.7 BB%, 27.3 K%, 0.1 WAR

Nationals Top 10 Hits of 2012: #8 Kurt Suzuki

Jared Book — Tue, 08 Jan 2013 15:00:28 +0000

There were a lot of big hits this year for the Washington Nationals and there were a lot of big wins. This list is sorted by WPA which is Win Probability Added. It means that Jayson Werth‘s walk-off homerun in Game Four of the NLDS is not in the Top 10 because it was a tie game in the bottom of the inning meaning the swing of WPA was not big enough. This list is for games where Washington went from a low chance of winning to a high chance.

Next up is Number 8.

Kurt Suzuki: September 29 vs St. Louis

The situation: 4-4, Top 10, Runners on 2nd and 3rd
Pitcher: Fernando Salas

The result: +0.42

Suzuki wasn’t a National long, but with this double he gave the Nationals a win after they had blown the lead in the ninth inning. This could have clinched the division for the Nationals, but with the Atlanta Braves winning, that celebration was put on hold. This was also the game where Michael Morse had his grand slam overturned and is best known for his phantom swing and job around the bases. On a personal level, it was also one of the first games I was a member of DistrictOnDeck.