Most Important Nationals Hit: Jayson Werth‘s ground into double play (-19.8%)

Sadly, I believe this is the first time the most important Nats hit has hurt the team’s Win Probability Added. Down 2-0, the Nats had a threat mounting with two runners on and no outs in the eighth. In a 3-0 count, Jayson Werth swung and hit into a double play, all but ending the threat. After the game, Werth said, “I was trying to do too much.” Of course, after that, the Nationals would not score and would fall 2-0.

Most Important Nationals Pitch: John Buck‘s solo homer (-11.5%)

Apr 19, 2013; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis (29) is congratulated at home by catcher John Buck (44) after hitting a solo home run off Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (not pictured) during the sixth inning of an MLB game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

As the first batter in the second inning, Buck mashed a Jordan Zimmermann pitch slightly down and in into the upper deck in left field, demonstrating an incredible amount of power in blasting his seventh home run of the year. The winds were not favorable for home runs yesterday, and the Nats often flew out to the warning track, making Buck’s mammoth round-tripper all the more impressive. Zimmerman pitched well, allowing only two runs in five innings, but was undone by a two-walk, one-error fourth inning that took nearly 30 pitches and fortunately allowed the Mets to score only one run.

Champ of the Game: Denard Span (+6.9%) was the only offensive starter with a positive WPA, going 0-2 but walking twice. For New York, Dillon Gee (+20.4%) entered the game with an 8.63 ERA but locked down the Nats for 5.2 IP until his control left him in the sixth.

Chump of the Game: Werth (-24.5%) was one of only four Nats to get a hit, going 1-4, but the double play was extremely damaging to his overall score. Daniel Murphy (+5.5%) was 1-4, but his hit had a WPA of only 0.5%, and a few other routine outs were enough to push him to the bottom on a day when no Met had any extraordinary offensive performances, good or bad.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Adam LaRoche‘s three-run home run (+37.0%)

If the Nats’ hearts were torn out when New York scored five runs in the bottom of the fourth, LaRoche was their EMT. After Jayson Werth walked and Bryce Harper doubled, his three-run bomb off of Aaron Laffeyput the Nationals back on top, 6-5, in a critical inning for an offensive response to the Mets. In the time that I have done this post (so for under two weeks), I believe it is the single most influential hit by any team. Not nearly enough can be said about how important this was, not only statistically, but also in terms of the Nationals’ morale.

Apr 19, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper (34) stretches during batting practice before a game against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Most Important Nationals Pitch: Justin Turner‘s two-run single (-24.5%)

Gio Gonzalez cruised through the first three innings, recording five strikeouts and allowing no runs, but inexplicably blew up in the fourth. He had already allowed two runs to cut the Nats’ lead to 3-2 and loaded up the bases when Turner singled to score Colin Cowgill and Ruben Tejada, putting the Mets up 4-3. Gonzalez started out the inning by allowing a triple to David Wright and walking John Buck, but induced a groundout and threw Wright out at home on a fielder’s choice. With two outs, the Nationals’ win expectancy was 81.4%. After two walks and three singles that allowed the Mets to score five runs, that number plummeted to 19.6%.

Champ of the Game: Harper (+46.8%) did not have the game’s most influential hit, but he had the next two. He hit a third-inning home run (+16.1%) to boost the Nats’ lead from 1-0 to 3-0, and another (+26.5%) to break a tie in the eighth, his fourth career multi-homer game. For New York, John Buck (-19.0%) was only 1-4, but had an RBI, a run scored, and a walk to go along. His single tied the game in the seventh off Ryan Mattheus.

Chump of the Game: Gonzalez (-47.6%) was leading the team in Win Probability Added in the third inning, but quickly plummeted in his disastrous fourth. His final line was 4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. Laffey (+38.8%) took this crown for the Mets, recording only two outs while allowing the setup to LaRoche’s home run in addition to the home run itself.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Steve Lombardozzi‘s reach on error (+0.109)

With runners on first and second and no outs, Lombardozzi sent what looked like a double-play grounder to Mets 2B David Murphy. However, Murphy botched the relay, pulling Ruben Tejada off second base, and gave the Nationals a bases-loaded, no-outs situation. WPA loves potential runs, which is why that scenario was so valuable, and why the Nats’ WPA dropped so much when Kurt Suzuki, Roger Bernadina, and Denard Span each failed to get some offense going.

Apr 19, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Washington Nationals first baseman Chad Tracy (18) is safe at second when New York Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada (11) can

Most Important Nationals Pitch: Daniel Murphy‘s single (-0.094) 

Continuing with the potential run theme, putting runners on first and third with no outs is a more valuable single play than scoring one of those runners on a wild pitch (-0.031, next play). John Buck‘s RBI single to make it 2-0 was a close second (-0.085) but the value of Murphy’s single was maximized since it came with no outs in the bottom of the first.

Champ of the Game: Shamefully, Lombardozzi (+0.072) takes this title thanks to Murphy’s error. He was 0-4. Matt Harvey (-0.251) was masterful for New York, allowing just one run in seven innings while striking out seven.

Chump of the Game: Jayson Werth (-0.129) was only 0-3 with a walk, but grounded into a -10.2% double play after Denard Span singled in the sixth, composing the majority of his negative score. Tejada (-0.025) was not good at the plate for New York, going 0-4, though Murphy is exonerated despite his costly error because of his +10.6% overall.