These posts are starting to sound like a broken record. Early runs from the opponent drop the Nats’ Win Expectancy to ~25%, effectively dooming the team given the way the offense is playing. Late in the game, runners get into good position and the WE spikes, but that glimmer of hope is snuffed out and the Nationals lose. This team is too good for things not to turn around soon, but it’s a little depressing in the meantime. The names involved are below:

Most Important Nationals Hit: Jhonatan Solano‘s single (+10.5%)

Apr 24, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals catcher Jhonatan Solano (23) singles during the seventh inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

With one out in the seventh, Anthony Rendon singled for his second career hit. Solano followed this with a single to put runners on the corners for the pitcher’s spot, in which Steve Lombardozzi pinch hit. Solano made for second as Lombardozzi struck out, and was thrown out to end the scoring threat. Lombardozzi has been hot this season, now hitting .345, and rarely strikes out, but the way the Nats’ offense is going, this outcome is no surprise.

Most Important Nationals Pitch: Yadier Molina‘s two-run single (-15.0%)

It wasn’t Allen Craig this time! Stephen Strasburg had trouble in the first, surrendering three runs on three hits and a walk, and Molina did the damage first. WPA loves early runs, which is why this hit was so valuable and why the Nats’ WE dropped to 19.7% after the third run of the inning was scored. The Nats really aren’t doing themselves any favors with these early (4th inning or earlier) runs, and their confidence would hugely benefit from a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning sometime.

Champ of the Game: Denard Span (+2.5%) was 1-4 with a single. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Seriously though, it’s easy to take this title when the rest of the offense struggles and the pitching isn’t in a situation to have a high WPA because the game is all but decided. Joe Kelly (-14.8%) only pitched 1.1 innings for St. Louis, but bailed Jaime Garcia and himself out of situations with two men on.

Chump of the Game: Danny Espinosa (-15.2%) continues to struggle, going 0-4 with a strikeout today and dropping his season average to .155. According to Davey Johnson, who continues to rattle the lineup in search of runs, has said he will likely sit tomorrow in favor or Lombardozzi. For the Cardinals, Craig (+8.3%) finally came back to earth after great WPAs his last two games, and went 0-4 with three strikeouts.

Stephen Strasburg was once again solid, but the offense was once again pathetic as Jaime Garciahad his way with the lineup, allowing just four hits in 5.2 IP, and the Nats (10-11) suffered their sixth straight loss at home, 4-2 to the Cardinals. The team is now under .500 for the first time since 2011.

Apr 24, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws during the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Strasburg (L, 1-4) struggled early, but cruised once he managed to settle down. He let four of the first five batters he faced get on base with four hits and a walk, and by the end of the inning he had allowed three runs and three hits. But for the next six innings, Strasburg looked like the dominant ace everyone expected, facing just one over the minimum, thanks to a Matt Holliday single in the sixth inning. All in all, his line was decent, but his second-worst start of the year: 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K. His ERA is now 3.16 on the season. For anyone who sees his 1-4 record and declares that he isn’t as good as we thought, note that he has had a total of seven runs of support in those four losses, and that his ERA is now the exact same as it was in 2012.

Those who would similarly deride the offense would have more of a point. For the sixth straight game, no Nat not named Bryce Harper had multiple hits. The team did manage seven hits, but they were scattered harmlessly throughout the game. The team had two multi-hit innings: the sixth, when Strasburg and Denard Span singled before Harper scored Strasburg on a groundout, and the seventh, when Jhonatan Solano tried to steal on a 3-2 count, and was thrown out easily after Steve Lombardozzi struck out to end the threat. Davey Johnson decided to sit Kurt Suzuki and Adam LaRoche as a part of a lineup shakeup to try to get some offense going, but after today’s failure, he said he would consider bigger changes, such as moving Jayson Werth around and benching Danny Espinosa, who is hitting .155.

In the eighth, Drew Storen made his second appearance of the series after recording a 1-2-3 inning the first time. He allowed three hits and a run in the first four batters he faced, but stranded runners on the corners by getting the next two out. In the bottom half of that inning, Werth undid the damage with a solo homer, his fourth of the year. If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic on offense beyond Harper, he’s a candidate: despite hitting just .259, he has only one fewer home run than he did in 81 games last season. Zach Duke managed a clean top of the ninth despite allowing a hit and a walk, and has now allowed just two runs in his last eight innings pitched since getting blown up in his first game of the year. Unfortunately, the Nats are 0-6 in games he has appeared in. Edward Mujica set the Nats down in order in the bottom of the ninth to extinguish their hopes.

The Nats’ offense is clearly struggling, having scored just four runs in their past four games, but the pitching and defense are both back to form after earlier concerns about them. The Nats allowed a total of nine runs this series, good for a 3.00 ERA. If this sudden problem goes the way of the others, the Nats should be fine this time next week. However, the Nats should get better in a hurry, because next up is four games against Cincinnati before four in Atlanta.

Next Game: Tomorrow v. Cincinnati, 7:05 PM. Gonzalez (1-1, 5.85) v. Arroyo (2-1, 3.54)

Given that it was only a two-run game, this outcome was in question up until the bitter end. As evidenced by the WPA spike when Harper doubled in the ninth, any semblance of a rally would have been huge for the Nats, but as has been their way recently, the bats fell silent. However, again I would say to the alarmists: patience. A week ago the bullpen was a disaster and something had to be done. Now it hasn’t allowed a run in three games. At the same time, the defense was the problem, but now it’s turned seven double plays in two games. Nothing is as bad as it seems.

Most Important Nationals Hit: Bryce Harper‘s double (+10.2%)

Apr 23, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper (34) slides into second base in front of St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma (38) at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

The Nats only mustered five hits, and Harper’s was the only extra-base one. It initially didn’t look like a double, but Harper surprised everyone by hustling around first and barely beating out Carlos Beltran‘s throw to be safe. The Nats looked as though they finally had something going, but Adam LaRoche struck out on a pitch that certainly looked outside on TV and the rally died soon thereafter.

Most Important Nationals Pitch: Allen Craig‘s RBI double (-15.3%)

For the second straight day, Craig opened the day’s scoring with a double, and for the second straight day, the Nationals didn’t score enough for any other moment to be more important. Craig’s hit drove in Shane Robinson, who had singled the at-bat before. This double was a part of a rough fourth inning for Ross Detwiler, who allowed four straight hits and two runs before escaping from danger with three straight outs. Even with that inning, Detwiler had another good start, allowing two runs in six innings. This was his first start all year allowing more than one run, and his ERA skyrocketed to 1.38.

Champ of the Game: Harper (+14.0%) was 2-3 with a walk, and remains as the only National truly doing his job on offense as of late. He is the only player on the team with any multi-hit games in the team’s last five, and he has two. For St. Louis, Adam Wainwright (-34.9%) flattened the Nats’ offense, allowing no runs while striking out nine in 8.1 IP.

Chump of the Game: LaRoche (-22.5%) earned an infamous Golden Sombrero, thanks to his striking out four times in four at-bats. He is now 0-9 with six strikeouts in his last nine at-bats. His most damaging play was when he struck out with the bases loaded to end the fifth (-11.7%). David Freese (+11.8%) was 0-4 as well, but did not strike out once.