Predicting The Nationals, Part Three: The Outfielders


The Washington Nationals outfield has seen a makeover of sorts this off-season with the addition of Denard Span and departure of Mike Morse. Span allows for Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth to return to the corners and perhaps more importantly, Werth to return to the middle of the order.

Sep 26, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Roger Bernadina (2) celebrates with center fielder Bryce Harper (34) and right fielder Jayson Werth (28) after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Nationals defeated the Phillies 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout this series, I will be noting players on the 40-man roster and confirmed non-roster invitees.

In the third installment of our “Predicting the Nationals” series, we take a look at the outfield (or, at least listed as outfielders) using ZiPS (published at Fangraphs) and Bill James’s pre-season predictions (from the Bill James Handbook).

Some notable things: Bryce Harper is expected to have a great second season and have the most WAR of any Nationals hitter. He is expected to improve, although not quite a Mike Trout-level 20-year old season. However, that isn’t normal. One of the notable things is that Span’s prediction with ZiPS was with the Nationals while Bill James still had him in Minnesota which explains the differences in hitting stats but not the differences in K rates. What is notable is the power expected by ZiPS from Tyler Moore and Corey Brown should they see significant playing time this season. Perhaps a look into the future.

A note before we begin: Obviously, playing time is not totally adjusted. This is just to get an idea of what the major prediction systems are offering for the Nationals this season.

Roger Bernadina
ZiPS: 369 PA, .248/.317/.385, 9 HR, 31 RBI, 8.1 BB%, 20.9 K%, 1.0 WAR
Bill James: 348 PA, .272/.343/.408, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 9.2 BB%, 19 K%

Corey Brown
ZiPS: 534 PA, .230/.296/.409, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 7.9 BB%, 31.1 K%, 1.4 WAR
James: N/A

Bryce Harper
ZiPS: 641 PA, .274/.346/.486, 26 HR, 70 RBI, 9.8 BB%, 21.2 K%, 4.6 WAR
James: 659 PA, .272/.347/.476, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 10.2 BB%, 18.1 BB%

Tyler Moore
ZiPS: 479 PA, .233/.280/.433, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 5.8 BB%, 29.4 K%, 0.5 WAR
James: 250 PA, .259/.315/.491, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 7.2 BB%, 23.6 K%

Eury Perez
ZiPS: 589 PA, .281/.307/.324, 0 HR, 44 RBI, 2.9 BB%, 16.1 K%, 1.1 WAR
James: N/A

Denard Span
ZiPS: 568 PA, .273/.330/.380, 4 HR, 42 RBI, 7.6 BB%, 10.4 K%, 2.7 WAR
James: 593 PA, .281/.350/.379, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 12 K%

Jayson Werth
ZiPS: 501 PA, .253/.345/.422, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 11.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 1.8 WAR
James: 636 PA, .267/.367/.440, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 12.9 BB%, 22.3 K%