Down on the Farm: Checking in on the Nationals’ Top 5 Prospects

July 17, 2012; Washington, D.C., USA; Washington Nationals first round draft pick

in the dugout before a game against the New York Mets at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

For most players, the All-Star break is an opportunity to spend time with family and rest for the second half of the season. For fans, the All-Star break is an opportunity to see their favorite players perform on a national stage at the Home Run Derby and, of course, at the All-Star Game itself.

But while the All-Star break and the festivities that go with it focuses on today’s best players, it’s also a great opportunity to step back and look to the future.

In the Nationals’ farm system and around Minor League Baseball, the future of the sport becomes closer to reality each and every day as the game’s best prospects strive to hone their skills and make it to the big leagues. Sunday’s SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, which kicked off this week of All-Star festivities, was a great opportunity for fans to see how their teams’ best prospects have progressed in the last year. 

But, just as we can’t judge how the Nationals have performed this season based on the fact that they only have one player in the All-Star Game, we also have to go beyond the players who performed in the Futures Game to see just how deep Washington’s farm system really is.

The Nationals may be one of the best young teams in baseball right now, but that success wasn’t born overnight. The first-place Nationals are a team that was created through years of excellent draft picks and careful player development. Maintaining a strong farm system has been general manager Mike Rizzo’s number one priority since he took over as GM in 2009 and is the main reason why the Nationals have evolved into the championship-caliber team they are today.

Although many of the team’s best young players – including Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – are already producing at the big league level, the team still has a plethora of talented prospects that are just a few years away from making an impact on the Major League team.

Today we’ll be checking in on the Nationals’ top five prospects according to MLB.com. All five are some of the game’s best rising stars and all five have All-Star potential as they progress to the next level in the near future.

We’ll start with left-hander Sammy Solis, rated the Nationals’ No. 5 prospect by MLB.com.

Feb 19, 2014; Port St Lucie, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Sammy Solis (44) does fielding exercises in spring training action at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

No. 5: Sammy Solis, LHP – Double-A Harrisburg

Almost immediately after being selected by the Nationals in the 2nd round of the 2010 First Year Player Draft, 25-year-old Sammy Solis started climbing the ranks in the Nationals’ farm system with his 97 mph sinking fastball and solid knuckle-curveball. Solis’ 6-foot-5 frame and powerful left arm caught the attention of scouts and fans alike as he seemed destined to break into the Nationals’ rotation plans.

After thriving in Class A Hagerstown in 2010 and the beginning of 2011, Solis was promoted to High-A Potomac, where he went 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA while striking out 53 batters over 56 1/3 innings of work. Since then, however, the left-hander has struggled with injuries that have delayed his career by more than two years.

After suffering what felt like a “pulled muscle” during an Arizona Fall League game in 2011, Solis was diagnosed with a pinhole tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in 2012.

Despite a slight drop in his fastball velocity and a shoulder issue that shelved the left-hander for a month, Solis returned to his dominant form after the surgery in 2013, posting a 3.32 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, the majority at Potomac. Just two years removed from surgery, Solis had a chance to make the Nationals’ bullpen during spring training, despite his lack of minor league experience. He may have been able to make the team had he not been limited to just two appearances because of a back issue that plagued the left-hander until late May.

Solis was once again shut down on May 26 after he developed discomfort in his pitching elbow in his first start after returning from the back issue, pitching for Double-A Harrisburg. The left-hander has not pitched since then and is on the disabled list, a major concern for a pitcher who has already had elbow surgery in his career.

Solis definitely has the tools to break into the Nationals rotation or bullpen at some point in the near future, but for that to happen, he’ll have to get healthy and stay healthy. He hasn’t had the ideal amount of minor league experience but the left-hander has strong command of all of his pitches and has everything he needs to make it to the big leagues. If he manages to stay healthy, we might just see the big left-hander on the mound at Nationals Park in 2015.

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Washington Nationals outfielder

against the West during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4: Brian Goodwin, OF – Triple-A Syracuse

Before they acquired center fielder Denard Span from the Twins prior to the 2013 season, the Nationals had spent years looking for a long-term center-fielder. Now, the Nationals are loaded at the position and have two strong candidates to take Span’s place at some point in the future.  One of those candidates is the next prospect on our list, Brian Goodwin.

Drafted by the Nationals in the 1st round of the 2011 First Year Player Draft, Goodwin immediately began his climb up the Nationals’ minor league system. In 2012, his first professional season, Goodwin batted .324 with nine home runs and 38 RBIs for Class A Hagerstown. Later that year, the outfielder earned a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg, where he hit .223 with five home runs in 42 games.

“He showed parts of five tools — he can hit for average and hit for power, he can steal bases, play good defense and he can throw,” said Nationals assistant general manager Doug Harris to MiLB.com prior to the 2014 season.

After struggling in his first year at Harrisburg, Goodwin improved in 2013, when he hit .252 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs in 122 games. Goodwin also played great defense in center field, recording five assists and posting a .982 fielding percentage.

The outfielder was even better in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .296/.333/.444 line with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and three stolen bases in 88 ABs. Goodwin’s performance earned him a spot on the Arizona Fall League’s 2013 Top-Prospects Team.

Goodwin’s solid season at Double-A and superb performance in the Arizona Fall League earned him yet another promotion in 2014. This time, Goodwin was headed to Triple-A Syracuse, the last stop in the Nationals’ minor league system. But the 23-year-old’s charge towards the big leagues has lost steam of late as the outfielder has struggled to adjust at the plate against the game’s top minor league pitchers.

In 81 games with Syracuse this season, Goodwin is hitting just .219 with four home runs and 32 RBIs. Goodwin has especially struggled against left-handed pitching as he’s batting .193 against southpaws and .231 against right-handers.

Despite his recent struggles, Goodwin has shown that he has all the tools necessary to succeed as a leadoff hitter at the big league level. He has plus speed, a strong arm, some pop and the ability to hit to all fields. Triple-A has slowed him down for now, but if he becomes more consistent with the bat and improves against left-handers, we should see him in the big leagues at some point next season.

Jul 14, 2013; Flushing , NY, USA; USA pitcher

throws a pitch during the 2013 All Star Futures Game at Citi Field. USA defeated World 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2: A.J. Cole, RHP – Triple-A Syracuse

When the Nationals traded right-hander A.J. Cole to the Athletics in the deal that brought Gio Gonzalez to D.C., they knew they were giving up a premier pitching talent that had the potential to become a superstar at the big league level. For this reason, one of the best deals the Nationals have made in recent years is the Michael Morse trade – the trade that brought Cole back to the team that drafted him four years ago.

Cole probably relishes his return to Washington as much as the Nationals do, given how much he struggled in the Athletics’ farm system. After getting off to a good start with Oakland’s A-ball clubs, he struggled mightily in High-A Stockton, where he went 0-7 with a 7.82 ERA in 38 innings of work.

“When he came back to us we did a few mechanical things with him to get him to a place where we felt we could maximize his skills,” Assistant GM Doug Harris said in a November 2013 MLB Network Radio interview.

Upon returning to the Nationals, however, Cole once again became the dominant pitcher the team envisioned when they drafted him in 2010.

Relying on a powerful fastball that often touches 98 mph, Cole went 6-3 with a 4.25 ERA while striking out 102 batters in 97 1/3 innings for High-A Potomac in 2013. The right-hander was even better after being promoted to Double-A Harrisburg later that year, going 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 49 strike outs in 45 1/3 innings for the Senators.

Cole’s dominance earned him an appearance in last year’s Futures Game, and the young right-hander did not disappoint. In front of a packed Citi Field in New York, Cole retired the only two batters he faced and earned the save in Team USA’s 4-2 win. The right-hander was in shut-down mode on the biggest stage of his career thus far, throwing six of his 10 pitches for strikes.

Cole began the 2014 season with Harrisburg and picked up right where he left off, going 6-3 with a 2.92 ERA and 61 strike outs in 71 innings of work. The right-hander was promoted to Triple-A Syracuse in late June, where he is 1-0 with a 3.78 ERA.

He’s only 22-years-old, but Cole has turned into one of the team’s most promising prospects and has the potential to become one of the best pitchers in the game. With his dominant high-90’s fastball and solid changeup and curveball, the 6-foot-5 right-hander could be the Nationals’ latest homegrown superstar. If Cole continues to thrive at Syracuse, he could join the big league club when rosters expand in September.

July 17, 2012; Washington, D.C., USA; Washington Nationals first round draft pick Lucas Giolito in the dugout before a game against the New York Mets at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1: Lucas Giolito, RHP – Class A Hagerstown

When the Nationals selected right-hander Lucas Giolito with the 16th overall pick in the 2012 First Year Player Draft, they knew they were taking a risk on a pitcher who would most likely need elbow surgery. Two years later, it’s clear that the Nationals made the right decision as the 20-year-old has developed into the team’s top prospect and one of the game’s rising young stars.

Giolito, who suffered a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow during his senior year of high school, underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after the Nationals signed him with a $2.925 million signing bonus. After the surgery, however, Giolito was once again the dominant pitcher that would have been top pick in the draft had it not been for the injury.

In his return to the mound last season, Giolito split time between the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League team and rookie ball in Auburn, posting a 1.96 ERA and striking out 39 batters in 36 2/3 innings. 

“I know I have things I need to work on,” Giolito told MLB.com. “So, I’m never satisfied. It’s good that I throw hard and my curveball breaks a lot, but there is more to it than that. I definitely want to improve on the finer aspects of pitching.”

Giolito’s success carried over into the 2014 season, which he began at Class A Hagerstown. In 14 starts for the Suns this season, Giolito is 4-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 72 strikeouts over 65 2/3 innings of work. Like Taylor, Giolito’s success this season also earned him a spot at the Futures Game.

Of all of the promising prospects on this list, Giolito is definitely the most exciting young talent as he is already tearing it up in the minor leagues and, at just 20-years-old, he has yet to reach his full potential.

The right-hander has recovered nicely from the surgery and his fastball is back to its pre-injury velocity. Along with a filthy 12-to-6 curve ball, which is as good as any in the majors, Giolito is working on a changeup, a pitch that could make his 100 mph fastball even more devastating for hitters. The right-hander’s 6-foot-6 frame also helps, allowing him to pitch from a tremendous angle. 

It’s been five years since the Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg, and in Giolito, they may have found yet another pitching talent for the ages. If the young right-hander stays healthy and continues to improve his game, we may very well see him in a Nationals uniform in 2016, if not sooner.

Apr 21, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo on the field before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Tomorrow’s All-Stars?

A baseball team can never become a contender if it doesn’t build from the ground up, creating a strong farm system that can fuel the big league club now, and in the future. Fortunately for Nationals fans, general manager Mike Rizzo and the team’s player development staff have done just that.

Although the team is already loaded with young talent at the big league level, the next wave of potential superstars is right behind them. Giolito, Cole, Taylor, Goodwin and Solis may be the Nationals’ top prospects, but the future of this team goes far beyond those five names.

The Nationals are tied for first place in the National League East and Baseball Prospectus gives them an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs. Things are looking good for the Nationals right now, but, more importantly, the future is looking good as well.

So enjoy this All-Star break, rest and prepare for what promises to be an incredible second half of the season. The Nationals may have only one player participate in today’s game, but, in reality, the team is full of All-Stars from the bottom up. Today it’s Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Giancarlo Stanton. Tomorrow it might be Lucas Giolito, A.J. Cole and Michael Taylor. Who knows.

One thing’s for certain, the future is bright for the Washington Nationals.