May 16, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark (57) throws during the second inning against the New York Mets at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
It’s almost comical to think that at the beginning of this season there was a competition for the Nationals fifth starter between Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan. While Roark had pitched for the Nats some out of the pen and made a few starts in 2013, he was also 27 entering the season with a history in the minors that didn’t exactly scream breakout. Jordan was a few years younger, looked the part, and had the even prettier minor league numbers to make the fifth spot in all likelihood his.
Roark was just holding the roster spot until Doug Fister healed.
Roark didn’t exactly run away with the fifth spot early on, allowing five earned in his second start of the season against Atlanta and posting a 5.29 ERA after three games, but he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Angels in his next start, and then came his start against the Padres where he didn’t allow a hit until the sixth, completed a three-hit shutout overall, and had me believe that I would see the first Nats no-hitter in team history. The pitcher FP Santangelo called the “poor man’s Greg Maddux” had arrived.
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For the starters, Roark finished third behind Fister and Jordan Zimmermann in ERA and third in both WHIP and innings pitched. He also finished 12th in the NL in ERA, tied for seventh in WHIP, and sixth in bWAR, the last being tops on the team (though fWAR, which uses FIP rather than runs allowed, had him third on the team) and something of a coup for a position of uncertainty entering the year.
The obvious benefit to the Nats is having a cheap, effective, cost-controlled fifth starter makes it easier to decide upon resigning either Fister or Zimmermann after 2015, if GM Mike Rizzo can or is willing to sign either. One spot in the rotation is much easier to fill than two or three, and the price of starting pitching isn’t exactly going down. Roark gives Rizzo the flexibility to draw a line in the sand on negotiations or to perhaps deal one of the two for prospects if the right package comes along.
Roark pitched at least six innings in all but five of his 31 starts and had one particular stretch in July where he had four straight starts completing seven innings and allowing a single earned run. In the months of June and July, he made 11 starts, posting a 2.12 ERA and allowed opponents to hit a paltry .231/.271/.297. These months also were the ones when the Nats were swapping first place with the Braves on a daily basis.
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He relied primarily on a sinker (tossing roughly half the time) and fourseam fastball, both sitting low 90s though occasionally touching 93-94 with a healthy dose of adrenaline. His change could at times befuddle hitters, as was the case in his outing against Oakland, and he breaking ball consisted mainly of a slider and a curve that occasionally looked particularly nasty on the right day.
Batters hit just .239 against the bearded righty, a surprising line if you consider that in the minors he allowed averages over .270 in two of his first three seasons with the Nats. 2013 saw those numbers drop, along with his walk rate, and his increased command carried over to 2014 when he walked batters in just 4.9% of at-bats, behind only Fister and Zimmermann once again. His .239 average against was second behind Gio Gonzalez.
Never exactly a strikeout specialist, his 6.25 K/9 was ahead of only Fister and well below the NL average of 7.36, Roark saw this dip precipitously in the months of August and September to 4.93 and 4.91 respectively. Was this a sign of fatigue or the league finally catching up with him? Before the All Star break, he was striking out batters 18.3% of the time while post break that number dropped all the way down to 15.9%. The good news is that his walk rate also dropped in the second half, going from 5.4% to 4.2%, as well as his WHIP, which went from 1.13 to 1.04, so it’s not like he became a liability.
I’d be curious to see if the velocity increase seen when Roark came out of the bullpen in the playoffs is sustainable, though I highly doubt it. Pitchers don’t typically to throw harder as they age. The ability to hit 93-94 mph sets up his change, which is a pitch I’d like to see him throw more often next year. He used his change only 10% of the time in ’14, and there were nights when it was all but unhittable.
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He is a pitcher that needs location to keep hitters off balance, so he doesn’t have the luxury of occasionally leaving one in the middle of the plate. That being said, Roark bought into the Nats philosophy of not walking batters and was always on the attack, consistently pounding the strike zone and making batters work for their base. There’s something to be said this mentality when batters are working the counts more than ever.
Roark blanked the Braves to clinch the East, tossing seven shutout innings of five-hit ball, and matched Yu Darvish in an early June start that Roark lost when he served up a seventh inning home run to Leonys Martin. Roark was also the losing pitcher in the 18-inning marathon NLDS outing against the Giants, allowing a homer to Brandon Belt that somehow left the yard on a cold, miserable night in D.C.
Looking forward to 2015, it’s difficult to see how Roark could improve upon this past season. Batters hit just .270 on BABIP against him, 8% lower than the NL average for starters of .296. Only Fister allowed a lower rate, and for a pitcher that primarily throws to contact any trend toward the average (you know, the whole regression to the mean thing) will result in a more hits, runs, and fewer innings. Another concern is that Roark threw nearly 200 innings, over 40 more than in 2013.
The optimist in me believes he’ll reach 14-15 wins, but the realist makes me believe 12 is a more reasonable expectation. If his ERA hits near 3.50 or so, the Nats would have to be ecstatic, and a WAR of between one and two would be great. Top 10 in any of those categories next year is a bet I’m not willing to take, however.