Ranking the NL East: Outfielders
Jun 30, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper (34), center fielder Denard Span (2) and right fielder Jayson Werth (28) celebrate in the outfield after the game against the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park. Washington Nationals defeated Colorado Rockies 7-3. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
In case you’ve missed it, the District on Deck staff has been going through the NL East, position by position, to see just how each of the five teams stack up against each other. So far, we’ve covered second base, first base, and shortstop. Today, we’ll be focusing on the outfield units.
There’s been plenty of movement going on in the NL East during the offseason, particularly from the southeast contingent of the division. The Atlanta Braves traded three of their outfielders – Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis – before turning around and adding free agents Jonny Gomes and Nick Markakis.
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They weren’t the only teams making moves. The Mets also made their biggest addition of the offseason to date by adding former Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who made sure that everyone knew he wasn’t about to just hand over the division to the Nats with the signing of Max Scherzer.
Other teams, on the other hand, have decided to stay pat. The Phillies look as if they’ll keep the status quo from 2014. The Marlins will have their All-Star outfield back together with the return of superstar Giancarlo Stanton from his face injury.
The Washington Nationals has made a few changes themselves. They’ll be playing without Ryan Zimmerman in the outfield, and Werth and Harper will be swapping places. They also may be relying more on their young players, like Michael Taylor.
With all of that going on, it’s sure to be an exciting year across NL East outfields. But just how does the division stack up in terms of talent going into the season?
Here’s our look at the top five:
Next: Number Five?
April 19, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder B.J. Upton (2) in ready position as ducks walk across the outfield against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at PNC Park. The Pittsburgh Pirates won 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
5. Atlanta Braves
It’s no secret that the Braves have entered a sort of rebuilding phase, an effort that was most evident in the outfield. Jason Heyward was shipped off to St. Louis. Justin Upton wound up in San Diego a month later, and, in mid-January, the Braves exchanged Evan Gattis for a couple of Houston prospects.
As of right now, the Braves’ outfield situation is cloudy at best. They’ve still got BJ Upton and 25-year-old Zoilo Almonte. Plus, they went out and added Nick Markakis and Jonny Gomes in free agency. How they’ll fit those puzzle pieces together is anyone’s guess, which is a big part of the reason they end up ranked fifth on this list.
The other part of that is actual production. BJ Upton is likely the team’s center fielder and that doesn’t really bode well. Upton will be 30 in 2015 and his best years may already be behind him, which is sad considering he’s been poor at best over the last two seasons.
Markakis is likely the guy that will have to account for most of the outfield’s offensive production. He slumped in 2013, but other than that, his OPS numbers are above average. He should still be good for 10+ homers and 50 RBIs. The biggest concern with Markakis will likely be his defense. All of his defensive sabermetrics paint him as a blatant defensive liability.
It’s possible the Braves will platoon Gomes and Almonte, or rotate one or the other, and hope that Almonte has a breakout season. At 25, Zoilo has a mere 47 games under his belt and the results have been less than impressive.
Gomes may still have a good season or two left in the tank. The 34-year-old outfielder, who spent 43 games with the Nationals in 2011, has still managed to get on base. However, his power numbers and average are both sliding.
Overall, the Braves have more questions than answers in their outfield, which is why rank 5th in our NL East rankings.
Next: Number Four?
Sep 18, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Ben Revere (2) in the field during the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
4. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies land at number four on our list. Unlike Atlanta, they haven’t undergone a complete overhaul during the offseason, but they’ve still got plenty of questions. While they’ve got a star in the making in their starting center fielder, the men they have manning their corners look a lot shakier.
Ben Revere is clearly the leader of the Phillies outfield, and with good reason. He’s excellent on the offensive side of the ball, hitting over .300 the past two seasons. He may not hit for power (he’s hit a grand total of two home runs in his career), but he makes up for it on the base paths. In his four full seasons in the majors, he’s stolen 34, 40, 22, and 49 bases respectively. He’s also consistently graded as a good defender.
Domonic Brown is a little more of an enigma. He made the All-Star Game in 2013, hitting .272/.324/.494 with 27 homers. In 2014, however, he took a step back, regressing back towards his career averages prior to 2013. If Brown can manage to catch lightning in a bottle again in 2015, there’s some hope for the Phillies outfield.
The Phillies will also hope that their third outfielder, Grady Sizemore, can find his magic again. At 32, though, that looks unlikely. Both Sizemore’s offensive and defensive numbers have been fading since 2009 and he’s struggled with injuries of late, making it uncertain how much he’ll contribute.
So, while Revere is clearly an asset both offensively and defensively, it’s Sizemore and Brown that could ultimately hold the Phillies back and it’s the reason they’re number four in the NL East.
Next: Number Three?
Sep 7, 2014; Cincinnati, OH, USA; New York Mets center fielder Juan Lagares (12) can
3. New York Mets
The Mets land at number three on our list. They’ve got more talent than the Braves and Phillies, but they’ve also got a few age concerns with Curtis Granderson.
The fact that Granderson’s skill set is starting to slip isn’t a knock on him; it’s just a fact of life. Putting him in right just makes sense for the Mets. It keeps him healthy while still keeping him from devolving into a complete liability.
Granderson’s also still a viable offensive option. He has decent power numbers for a guy his size (he hit 20 HRs last year), and, in spite of the fact that his average has fallen, he’s managed to get on base consistently. He may not have the speed he once had, but Granderson is far from being thrown on the scrap heap.
The Mets’ biggest acquisition of the offseason is Michael Cuddyer, the former Twin and Rockie, who likely will be asked to be a key contributor to the Mets offense. The biggest question will be whether or not Cuddyer’s offensive production will transfer from the thin air of Coors Field to the less hitter-friendly confines of Citi Field. Cuddyer’s never been known for his defensive prowess, so if his bat doesn’t produce, the Mets may wind up with a big case of buyer’s remorse.
Juan Lagares is the Mets’ best outfielder. A solid blend of defensive range and offensive production, Lagares is estimated by FanGraphs for a 3.7 WAR in 2015. He’s the glue that will hold the outfield together.
There are some other options for the Mets in the outfield, like former Phillie John Mayberry and they may turn out to surprise some people. But for now, we’re slotting them third in the division.
Next: Number Two?
Oct 3, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Denard Span (2) makes a catch off the bat of San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval (not pictured) in the second inning of game one of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: H.Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
2. Washington Nationals
The Nationals are not without their own questions in the outfield. They’ve made the move to flip-flop Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth, allowing Harper a better opportunity to show off his arm while taking the pressure off the aging Werth. Denard Span, on the other hand, will stay put in center.
The biggest question, as it always has been with the Nationals and their outfield, is the health of Bryce Harper. While he managed to avoid crashing into the wall in 2014, a mild feud with Matt Williams helped land the young star on the DL for an extended period of time.
The bright side is that Harper looks like he’s starting to find his swing. He crushed the ball in the playoffs, so if he stays healthy for his age 22 season, he could be a force in the middle of the Nats lineup. He’ll need to clean up his baserunning errors, but the potential is there for a monster 2015.
Denard Span isn’t ready to slow down yet. He’ll turn 31 at the end of February, but he consistently bullied opposing pitchers in the second half of the season. According to Fangraphs , he had a down year out in the field. It may be a blip on the radar or the start of a decline, but either way, it’s no reason to flat out panic.
At the end of the season, Jayson Werth looked like less of a worry. Unfortunately, he underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery earlier this month and his return by the start of the season still isn’t a lock yet. If he can’t go, the Nats will need Nate McLouth or Michael Taylor to step up, which wouldn’t bode well for the Nats offense.
In spite of those clouds hanging over Werth, the Nationals have enough experience and stability to land them at number two on the list of NL East outfields.
Next: Number One?
May 21, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna (left) reacts after right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (right) makes a diving catch during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
1. Miami Marlins
No matter which position you look at in the Marlins outfield, you run into a star. Giancarlo Stanton, stitched up face, $325 million contract and all, is obviously the biggest name, but the other two outfielders are no slouches.
Marcell Ozuna posted the lowest WAR of the three outfielders in 2014. What was his WAR, you ask? A whopping 3.7, which is more than the vast majority of outfielders from the NL East. He crushed 23 homers in 2014 with an OPS of .772. In a way, he’s Giancarlo Stanton-Lite, with a little less power and a little more range. At age 24, the only thing the Marlins should expect from Ozuna is improvement.
Left fielder Christian Yelich, 23, on the other hand, doesn’t post the power numbers that Stanton and Ozuna do (just nine home runs last year), but his .764 OPS was just off Ozuna’s and he managed to steal 21 bases and get on at a .362 clip. Pair that with a fantastic defensive season (10.2 UZR/150 according to FanGraphs), and you’ve got an outfielder with a WAR of 4.3.
There’s little to add here about Stanton. The guy is a physical freak. He’s already hit 154 career home runs (that’s 39 per 162 games!) and he’s posted an OPS+ over 130 for all except his rookie season which was at age 20. He’s easily one of the greatest players currently in professional baseball.
It may be a bit of a concern with Stanton coming back into the batter’s box, though. Anyone who took a pitch to the face like that shouldn’t apologize for being a little nervous about facing a fastball again. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see that completely ruining Stanton. Even if it takes a few games, he should revert to form eventually.
To be blunt, the Marlins’ outfield is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NL East and they’re arguably the best in baseball. Ranking them number one on this list was an easy decision.