Ranking the NL East: Third Base
Oct 6, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon (6) hits a single during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Third base in the NL East boasts two former All Stars, another who should begin making annual appearances soon, seven top 10 MVP seasons, two top 5, three Silver Slugger awards, and two Gold Gloves. There’s a lot of talent here, and while the supremacy of David Wright as the top third basemen is being challenged by Anthony Rendon, there’s youth to be had in Cody Asche in Philadelphia and a new arrival in Martin Prado who’s no stranger to those familiar with NL East baseball.
Will Chris Johnson with the Braves bounce back from a down year? Will Wright recover from an injured left shoulder? Is Rendon the real deal, or was last year a career year and the kid’s already reached his ceiling? What about Asche? Does he begin to prove all those scouting reports right and fulfill all the promise that had the Phillies selecting him in the fourth round of the 2011 draft?
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I believe that two of the men in this group will be playing in the All-Star game this year and will finish as the two best third basemen in the NL. You probably don’t need to guess who those two are if you follow me at all.
There are three teams in the East with legitimate chances to win the division or take a wild card spot, and three of the players listed here will play key roles. Will one of these players win an MVP this year?
If I had anything to say about it, both Rendon and Wright already would have. 2015 will be an interesting year, and it’s probably the last year that there will be any reasonable debate about the division’s best.
Next: Number Five?
Sep 26, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Cody Asche (25) hits an RBI double during the sixth inning of a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Braves 5-4. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
#5 – Cody Asche
Asche will be 25 next year, so there are likely better seasons ahead for the Phillies third basemen than the one he had last year. In all fairness, it was his first full season in the Majors since a 50 game stretch in 2013. Overall, he hit okay. He batted .252/.309/.390 with 10 home runs. He struck out quite a bit, whiffing in 23.5% of his at-bats, but Philadelphia couldn’t have been surprised by that. His minor league numbers suggested as much. His low walk rate wasn’t exactly news either.
Honestly, my favorite part about Cody Asche is that his name makes me think of Kobayashi, which makes me think of The Usual Suspects.
Kobayashi’s Proposal
The Usual Suspects
— MOVIECLIPS.com
Since I love that movie, I’m willing to give Asche the benefit of the doubt and consider last season growing pains. He did swing the bat better in August and September as he gained distance from a hamstring strain that kept him out of action for 27 games from late May to June 20. From August 1st until the end of September, Asche hit .265/.329/.404 with three home runs.
The Phillies are rebuilding, and Asche is part of the team’s future. He’s cost controlled at least, which means he’ll be staying put as the Phillies try to further jettison more of those bloated contracts. Phillies fans can grumble each and every night as the minimum wage Asche outperforms their $25M dollar first baseman.
I’ll be sad when Howard’s extension is up . . . after 2017.
Next: Number Four?
Sep 26, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Chris Johnson (23) dives to knock down a ball before throwing for an out during the first inning of a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
#4 – Chris Johnson
Johnson’s defense improved last year, turning from a fairly awful third baseman to playable but with issues. In the four seasons that he’s played 100+ games in the Majors, he’s never once posted a season with a positive defensive rating. Well, at least he can hit really well.
Well, about that.
Last year was a down year for Johnson offensively as his OBP plummeted into the .290 range and his wRC+ came in at 82. He’s a Braves hitter through and through, though, striking out in 26% of his at-bats. His fWAR of 0.5 from last year is lower than his true ability, but I don’t think he’s the near three win player from 2013. 2012 when he hit .281/.326/.451 is closer to his true ability with an fWAR around 1.3.
Steamer isn’t as bullish on him. Projections have him coming in at .265/.304/.390 with nine home runs and an fWAR of 0.2. Well, at least he’s signed through 2018 at a reasonable enough rate that he’s not an albatross.
The team is transitioning, waiting on a run in 2016. This year they can see if the Johnson they were excited enough to buy out his arbitration years returns. Maybe he continues to improve defensively at third, and the team lives with the bat. He’ll play the next season at 30, so he’s probably already reached his peak.
Next: Number Three?
Sep 14, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; New York Yankees second baseman Martin Prado (14) hits a solo home run in the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
# 3 – Martin Prado
Acquired in the trade that sent Nathan Eovaldi to the Yankees (what a horrible trade for the Marlins. I’m a believer in Eovaldi, and I think the Marlins gave up on him too soon. Super. Give the Yankees a flame-throwing right hander who’s only 24-years old. The Nationals thank you, Miami.) Prado will take over third for Casey McGhee who was traded to the Giants to replace Pablo Sandoval.
It’s been a busy offseason.
Prado is a solid player who will hit around .280, drive in 70-80 runs, and sneak into the double-digits in home runs. He’s versatile enough to play all over the field, and with the Marlins looking like a team with a chance to make some noise in the NL this season, he’ll be a key contributor to their success. Let’s just say he’ll be high fiving Giancarlo Stanton quite a bit after all those mammoth homers.
If there’s a concern with Prado it is that he doesn’t particularly walk all that much and his strike outs jumped up per at-bat last year (14 percent, well up from a career average of 10.9 percent). I don’t think that 5.6 fWAR season of 2012, but he’s a former All-Star with the pedigree and numbers to keep third base a position of strength for the Marlins.
Next: Number Two?
Sep 9, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon (6) slides to catch Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (not pictured) infield pop fly during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Washington Nationals defeated against the Atlanta Braves 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
# 2 – Anthony Rendon
If I went just by last year’s fWAR Rendon is the clear choice. He led all Major League third basemen in fWAR (even though he split time between second and third last year) and his wRC+ was third behind Adrian Beltre and Josh Harrison. He also finished fifth in the NL MVP voting last season, which is probably too low. Oh, and he’ll play next year at the youthful age of 26 and is due to hit for more power.
Why is he second then?
Rendon is an amazing player that makes all the plays at third, hits to all fields, and should only improve as he ages. Last year I argued that he had a legitimate claim for MVP, and it’s not exactly a leap of faith to believe he’ll be in the conversation yearly. He’s sitting here at second only because I want to see him do all those things again now that pitchers have seen a full year of him and pitching coaches begin to plan around him. With Jayson Werth on the mend, this year is an important one for Rendon to step up and be one of the Nationals’ key contributors. With the team already seen as an early favorite in the NL, Rendon will receive plenty of attention for his overall talents. With a repeat of last season, he’ll likely finish higher than fifth in MVP.
Steamer projects a .279/.350/.454 slash line with 19 home runs and 5.0 fWAR. This guy is ridiculously talented and is only getting better. So, yeah, I’m a huge fan and unashamed. I just think the next guy is better.
Next: Number One?
Sep 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets third baseman David Wright (5) hits a double against the Colorado Rockies during the eighth inning of a game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
#1 – David Wright
David Wright’s shoulder worries me. Will it be better in 2015? Last season was a fairly awful one for Wright as he hit .269/.324/.374 with a low eight home runs even after the Mets moved in the fences. Well, the Mets moved in the fences again this offseason because apparently that’s one of their plans to boost offense since signing real free agents with upside isn’t really in the plans, and by all reports Wright’s shoulder is on the mend from a left rotator cuff contusion that he suffered through last year.
I’m a believer.
Wright, when healthy, is the best third baseman in the NL and in the conversation for MLB best. Wright will go down as the best third baseman in Mets history, and I believe this is the year he takes his team back to the postseason. He’s not the same 20/20 threat he was in his early 20s, but he’ll be in the 15/15 range, and he’s solid defensively, which he’ll have to be if the Mets insist Wilmer Flores is the answer at short.
I think Steamer’s projections are low here, but I can see the .275/.324/.374 with 16 home runs as being reasonable. He’ll be 32 and he’s coming off a significant injury. If you want to argue that Rendon is better, you have a legitimate argument given the circumstances. There’s too much history with Wright, too many seasons of great baseball for me to say his decline will be fast and ugly. He’ll be back.