Ranking the NL East: Starting Pitchers
Oct 3, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher
Stephen Strasburg(37) pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of game one of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: H.Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
With Sunday night’s exciting Super Bowl behind us, the world can officially turn its attention to other sports. And with Spring Training just a few weeks away, it’s time for Nationals fans to get ready for what promises to be an exciting 2015 season.
The Nationals are coming off one of their best seasons in team history, winning an NL-best 96 games while claiming their second division title in three years. The team entered last season as World Series favorites but fell short of their goals in a disappointing NLDS against the Giants. Fortunately for the Nationals, they’ll have another chance to bring home the trophy in 2015.
With the team’s already-loaded roster and with this winter’s acquisitions of Max Scherzer, Yunel Escobar and Casey Janssen, the Nationals will once again enter the season as hands-down NL East favorites and popular picks to win the World Series. As good as the team looks on paper, however, things don’t always go as expected in baseball – something Nationals fans know all too well.
In order for the Nationals to make it back to the playoffs next season and have a shot at their first World Series trophy, they’ll need to defend their NL East title – a title that they won by a whopping 17-game margin. But baseball is an unpredictable game, and while the Nationals are clear favorites to win the division right now, anything can happen over the course of a 162-game season.
For this reason, it’s important to keep an eye on each team in the division as we head into 2015. With that in mind, District on Deck has been ranking NL East teams position by position. Today we’ll continue our rankings series with starting pitchers.
When it comes to ranking the division’s starting rotations, it’s pretty clear who comes in at No. 1. The other four, however, are not quite as obvious and an argument can be made for several teams to be near the top of the list. Regardless of who has the best starting rotation, there’s no doubt that pitching will be key to winning the division and the best rotation could carry its team to the playoffs.
With that in mind, here are my Top-5 starting rotations in the NL East:
Next: Number Five?
Sep 23, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher
Cole Hamels(35) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
5. Philadelphia Phillies
The Nationals may have the best rotation in baseball right now, but just a few years ago, that distinction belonged to the Phillies. It seems like yesterday that the Phillies boasted an unstoppable rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. But things have changed, and the Phillies have gone from the best rotation in baseball to the worst in the NL East.
After A.J. Burnett declined his option with the Phillies earlier this offseason, the team’s current rotation consists of Hamels, Lee, Aaron Harang, David Buchanan and Jerome Williams.
Of course, it should be noted that Hamels is one of the best pitchers in the game. The right-hander missed time on the disabled list in 2014, but he still managed to go 8-8 with a 2.46 ERA in 30 games. In his career, Hamels is 108-83 with a 3.27 ERA.
Hamels is a Cy Young-caliber starter and, barring a last-minute trade this offseason, he’ll be on the mound for the Phillies on Opening Day. Once you get past Hamels, however, the rotation is full of question marks.
Lee, a former Cy Young award winner, struggled mightily in an injury-plagued 2014 season. The left-hander went 4-5 with 3.85 ERA in just 13 starts last season. If Lee is able to stay healthy in 2015, he and Hamels should provide a solid 1-2 punch for the Phillies. But given his recent health issues and the fact that he’s 36 years old, his best days are likely behind him.
After Lee, the rotation isn’t very impressive. Harang pitched relatively well with the Braves last season, going 12-12 with a 3.57 ERA, but he’s been inconsistent throughout his career. Buchanan had a decent 2014 season but he’s only started 20 games in his big league career. Williams went 6-7 with a 4.77 ERA last season and hasn’t posted an ERA under four since 2011.
Overall, the Phillies aren’t likely to win the division next season and their iffy rotation probably isn’t a huge concern for a team that is (supposedly) in rebuilding-mode. That said, their rotation is nothing like what it used to be and it ranks at the bottom of the NL East.
Next: Number Four?
Sep 24, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Julio Teheran(49) pitches in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports
4. Atlanta Braves
Unlike the Phillies’ rotation, which is mostly made up of veterans, the Braves’ rotation is young and on the rise.
As of right now, the Braves’ rotation consists of Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Alex Wood and Mike Foltynewicz. Of Atlanta’s five starters, four will enter the 2015 at 24 years old or younger. The oldest, Minor, is also relatively young and will be just 27 years old on Opening Day.
The most impressive player in the Braves’ rotation is, without a doubt, Teheran. At just 24 years old, the right-hander has emerged as one of the best young pitchers in the game. Teheran was dominant in 2014, going 14-13 with a 2.89 ERA in 33 starts for the Braves. 2015 will be Teheran’s third full season in the big leagues, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be even better than he was last season.
After Teheran, however, the Braves rotation could be boom or bust in 2015.
After winning 13 games in 2013, Minor regressed badly last season, going 6-12 with a 4.77 ERA in 25 starts for the Braves. Miller, who pitched for the Cardinals last season, also seemed to take a step back in 2014. The Braves’ new right-hander went 10-9 with a 3.74 ERA last season, after going 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA in 2013.
Wood, on the other hand, turned in the best season of his young career in 2014, going 11-11 with a 2.71 ERA. Given how well he did in his first full season in the majors, it wouldn’t be surprising if the young left-hander has an even greater 2015 season.
The fifth spot in the rotation isn’t set in stone for the Braves, though newly-acquired right-hander Foltynewicz is expected to compete for the job during Spring Training. Foltynewicz, whom the Braves acquired from the Astros in the Evan Gattis trade, is considered the No. 2 prospect in Atlanta’s farm system, according to MLB.com.
The Braves’ rotation doesn’t make the top 3 in the NL East, but given how young and talented the team’s starters are, there’s no telling where this rotation will rank next offseason after each pitcher has another year of experience under their belt.
Next: Number Three?
May 20, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher
Jose Fernandez(16) fields questions from reporters during a press conference at Marlins Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
3. Miami Marlins
Ranking the next two teams is complicated since the fate of both rotations depends largely on players that will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2015. That being said, both the Marlins and the Mets are loaded with pitching talent and the argument can be made that either team should get the No. 2 ranking. For the purpose of this article, however, we’ll rank the Marlins’ rotation at No. 3.
As I said before, the success of the Marlins’ rotation in 2015 will depend largely on the recovery of phenom Jose Fernandez, who is expected to wrap up his Tommy John rehab and join the team sometime around June 1.
Prior to the surgery, Fernandez was one of the best pitchers on the planet. The right-hander went 12-6 with a 2.92 ERA in his All-Star rookie campaign in 2013. If Fernandez comes back in time to lead the rotation in the second half, he may very well help the Marlins make it back to the postseason.
Miami’s rotation is talented even beyond Fernandez.
Mat Latos will probably be the team’s ace until Fernandez gets back and he’s been a dominant pitcher throughout most of his career. Latos missed significant time on the DL last season with the Reds, but he won 14 games in 2010, 2012 and 2013. Jared Cosart posted a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts for the Marlins last season and he could be even better if he stays healthy in 2015.
Henderson Alvarez was an All-Star last season and finished the year 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA. Assuming the Marlins don’t trade Dan Haren before Opening Day, he should provide them with yet another strong option at the back of the rotation. In 32 starts with the Dodgers last season, Haren went 13-11 with a 4.02 ERA. Tom Kohler, who will be the team’s No. 5 starter, is also coming off a solid 2014 season in which he went 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA.
Needless to say, the Marlins have a strong rotation. And with Fernandez due back at some point next season, the rotation should get even stronger as the year goes on.
Next: Number Two?
Aug 27, 2014; New York, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher
Jacob deGrom(48) and starting pitcher Jonathon Niese (49) and starting pitcher
Matt Harvey(33) and starting pitcher
Dillon Gee(35) sit in the dugout during the eighth inning of a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2. New York Mets
Much like the Marlins, the success of the Mets’ rotation in 2015 will rest largely on Matt Harvey, who is also set to return from Tommy John Surgery next season. Unlike Fernandez, however, Harvey should be ready to go by Opening Day, which should provide a huge boost for the Mets’ rotation.
Before the surgery, Harvey was unstoppable. The young right-hander went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts with the Mets during his All-Star 2013 campaign. Given the overwhelming success of Tommy John surgery in recent years, Harvey should come back strong and ready to lead the Mets rotation in 2015 as New York tries to get back into contention.
After Harvey will be Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler and Jake deGrom. While none of those names are quite as exciting as Harvey, the Mets’ rotation still boasts plenty of talent.
Despite being into his 40s, Colon has still managed to win 33 games over his last two seasons, going 15-13 with a 4.09 ERA in 2014. Niese is another solid veteran option in the Mets’ rotation. The left-hander tied a career-low in ERA last season (3.40), despite going 9-11 on the year.
Like Harvey, Wheeler is another exciting young pitcher that should continue to improve in 2015. Wheeler went 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA in his second big league season in 2014. deGrom saw great success in his first big league season in 2014, going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA in 22 starts.
Needless to say, the Mets have a loaded rotation. And if Harvey returns to his pre-surgery dominance, there’s no reason to believe the Mets’ rotation won’t be one of the best in baseball.
Next: Number One?
Jan 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer speaks during an introductory press conference at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
1. Washington Nationals
While the NL East is loaded with starting pitching talent, there’s no doubt that the best rotation in the division belongs to the Nationals.
In 2014, the team’s rotation of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez led the Nationals to their second NL East title in three years. That rotation was arguably the best in the game last season and even if general manger Mike Rizzo hadn’t made any moves this winter, it probably still would’ve entered the 2015 season as one of the best in baseball.
Despite the incredible depth of the rotation, Rizzo wasn’t satisfied and he made his already dominant pitching staff even better by signing free agent Max Scherzer to a 7-year, $210 million deal last month.
Scherzer, of course, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The right-hander won the Cy Young award in 2013 after going 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA. He was almost as good last season, going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Scherzer joins a rotation that already had a dominant 1-2-3 of Strasburg (13-11, 3.14 ERA), Zimmermann (14-5, 2.66 ERA) and Fister (16-6, 2.41 ERA). Gonzalez wasn’t bad either, going 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA.
The Nationals’ rotation is so deep that it looks like Roark–who went 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last season–will spend the 2015 season in the bullpen.
With the addition of Scherzer, the Nationals now have four starters who could probably be No. 1 guys on any pitching staff in baseball. With Gonzalez in the back of the rotation and Roark ready to return from the ‘pen if needed, the Nationals not only have the best rotation in the NL East, but they also have the best rotation in all of baseball.