Top Five Washington Nationals Players to Watch in 2015
Oct 7, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper hits a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants in the 7th inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Picking the top five players to watch for the Washington Nationals should be an easy task, but the Nats have multiple interesting storylines to choose from entering the 2015 season.
We can look at Ryan Zimmerman taking over first base duties from Adam LaRoche. How will he handle the position transfer and will he be able to stay healthy for a full 162 games?
Anthony Rendon may be one of the most underrated players in the league; can he maintain his fantastic output and continue to bolster the middle of the Nats’ lineup?
The Nationals also trot out the best rotation in baseball. Each pitcher in the five-man rotation has a story to tell and is critical for the Nats’ success in 2015.
It is a bit difficult to find any weakness in this Nationals squad, but – if there is any weakness – it is in the depth and power up and down the lineup. I tried to focus my rankings on the key offensive players that need to step up their game to ensure a deep playoff run, which is the only marker of a successful 2015 campaign.
As we all witnessed in 2014, regular season success doesn’t necessarily transfer to postseason glory and the Nationals’ lineup is prone to some wicked cold streaks.
I hoped to pick the players that, more than the rest of the team, need to step up big time this year with a clear focus on the “holes” in the Nationals’ lineup. But there are still some interesting story lines in the pitching staff…starting with number five…
Next: Number 5
Oct 2, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) pitches in game one of the 2014 American League divisional series against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
5. Max Scherzer
The Washington Nationals gave Max Scherzer a lot of money to come pitch in DC. To the tune of $210 million deferred over 14 years.
The Nationals are, for the next seven years that he is under club control, going to be looking for similar numbers he put up with the Detroit Tigers.
I am also interested to get to know the guy. That is part of what makes baseball fun to me.
I know the numbers Max Scherzer. The guy who put up a 3.15 ERA and a 2.85 FIP, which is a bit high for his talent level mostly due to some bad defense behind him. Steamer projects him to be almost a 4-win player in 2015, and his strike out rate has been phenomenal at 9.59 K/9 over his career.
But what I don’t know is the personality of Max Scherzer. What kind of a guy he is. That is going to be interesting to watch and learn over the next few months.
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I am also interested in seeing how well Scherzer can keep up his impressive numbers.
It is no secret that after 30 most players, especially power pitchers, start a slow decline. Max Scherzer relies overwhelmingly on his fastball to strike people out and his contact rate on fly balls is not exactly the best. As Scherzer ages, he will have to rely more on offspeed pitches and location – a transition that is difficult to make.
Going into the 2015 season I am excited to get to know Max Scherzer the person and watch his skills transition throughout the season, which makes him my number five player to watch.
Next: Number 4
October 6, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Drew Storen (22) delivers a pitch during game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
4. Drew Storen
Drew Storen enters the 2015 season as the Nationals’ primary closer after taking over the duties from a floundering Rafael Soriano at the end of last season. Most Nationals fans do not need to be reminded of the checkered past of one Drew Storen.
Exhibit A: Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Nationals are up 7-5 headed into the top of the 9th, and Drew Storen proceeds to give up 4 runs, ensuring a Nats loss and an early exit.
After this meltdown, Storen spent some time in Triple-A regaining his composure and tweaking his mechanics. He returned to the roster for good in 2014 and performed well with a 1.25 ERA over 50 innings.
But we also have Exhibit B: Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS against the San Fransisco Giants.
After a near perfect gem from Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen needed just one out to put the Nationals right back into series. Unfortunately for Nationals’ fans, Storen gave up a quick single from Buster Posey and a game-tying double from Pablo Sandaval.
Right now, I think Drew Storen has the stuff to be a great closer in the regular season. But we have two examples that show his questionable output under playoff pressure.
The Nationals are expected to win the NL East and compete for the best record in the league, but they need to make a playoff run for this season to be considered a success and Storen operating under pressure is a key factor in that playoff run.
Next: Number 3
Oct 3, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals center fielder Denard Span (2) makes a catch off the bat of San Francisco Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval (not pictured) in the second inning of game one of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: H.Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
3. Denard Span
To be honest, I am not too worried about the Nationals’ pitching rotation.
Surprising, I know.
Which is why the rest of this ranking focuses on offensive production. The bats shouldn’t be a problem with this lineup on paper, but the NLDS last year revealed it could be this team’s Achilles heel in tough spots.
The guy that makes this lineup go is Denard Span leading off and getting on base.
Not too long after Bryce Harper told the world he should be leading off and playing center, Span decided he would start hitting the baseball.
A lot.
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His first-half stats are a pedestrian .277/.345/.378, but in the second half Span exploded for a .346/.403/.459 slash line. The hope for this year is Span can continue that level of production into the 2015 season, but that could be easier said than done.
First, Span is entering into the ‘mystical thirties’, where position players’ skills start to decline. He is coming off one of his better years, but it is imperative he keeps fighting Father Time and produces.
Second, Span’s second-half numbers may be a bit inflated. His BABIP for the first half was a relatively average .299, but for some reason in the second half he only found green grass in the outfield and holes in the infield with a ridiculous .371 BABIP.
One would have to assume that stat is going to come back to earth and age will start to play a factor, but Span is the engine that makes this offense go, which puts him at number three on our list.
Next: Number 2
October 6, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Jayson Werth (28) bats during game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
2. Jayson Werth
Did I mention that I was concerned with the National’s lineup entering this season?
I know I shouldn’t be. There are no apparent weaknesses. But, just like a concerned parent, I can always see “room for improvement”.
What I see is a lineup prone to injury with not too much in reserve. I see an aging core (Bryce Harper/Antony Rendon notwithstanding) missing a power hitting Adam Laroche. I see a key big bat in the middle of the lineup, in the form of Jayson Werth, returning from AC joint surgery on his right shoulder just before opening day.
HR/FB rate dropped almost 9% points from 18.0% to 9.4%
Jayson Werth is entering his fifth season for the Nats and coming of a great year where he went .292/.394/.455, but at 35 he may have hit his peak last year going a ridiculous .318/.398/.532. Steamer still predicts him at an almost 3 win player this season, but there has been a noticeable dip in his power since 2013.
His ISO dropped from .214 to .163 and his HR/FB rate dropped almost 9% points from 18.0% to 9.4%. This is common when players get older and deep fly balls that would have been home runs a few years earlier turn into easy outs.
This is what concerns me the most.
An aging power hitter that can’t quite reach the same heights – especially after shoulder surgery – in a key position in the Nationals’ lineup that NEEDS a power hitter. This makes Jayson Werth the second player to watch on our list.
Next: Number 1
Oct 7, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Bryce Harper (34) watches his solo home run off of San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Hunter Strickland (background right) in the 7th inning during game four of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
1. Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper needs to have an MVP season.
It is as simple as that.
Bryce is the face of the franchise. The young star that was supposed to help drive this team deep into the playoffs year after year. With the depth issues in the Nationals’ lineup, Bryce not only needs to keep himself healthy all year, but he needs to hit like he did in the playoffs.
Harper was on fire in the playoffs and was really the only effective offensive weapon during an otherwise woeful team performance. Granted, a .294/.368/.882 line is going to be hard to come by in the regular season, but he needs to outstrip all expectations for this season.
Steamer projects Bryce Harper to be a 4.5 win player with a respectable .273/.363/.490 line. Frankly, he needs to do better than that.
First, he needs to stay healthy. Bryce only had 395 plate appearances last year and hasn’t had more than 600 his entire career (he was close in 2012 with 597).
Bryce Harper also needs to come into his own in his third full season with the Nationals and start producing closer to his other young star counterpart, Mike Trout. Trout projects to be an almost nine-win player with a pretty decent stat line… .297/.393/.538.
Bryce is a player with all the potential in the world and one of the few players in baseball with the ability to reach a Trout-like level of success.
We saw glimpses of how he can single handily win a game, and even a series, for his team during the Nationals’ 2014 playoff run, but we need to see this on a consistent basis from Harper.
This makes Bryce Harper the number one player to watch next year for the Washington Nationals.