Washington Nationals Opinions: Which Starter Will Win the Cy Young?
Feb 21, 2015; Viera, FL, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer works out during the spring training camp at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals enter the 2015 season with three true aces that any team would love to send out to the mound on Opening Day. Max Scherzer has the hardware, Stephen Strasburg the hype, and Jordan Zimmermann the consistency. While Scherzer is the established veteran, both Strasburg and Zimmermann have more than proven their worth, with all three ranking in the top 10 of MLB Network’s “Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now.” So what comes next for this dominant trio? Could this potentially historic rotation finish the season with any hardware? Nationals Manager Matt Williams may have handed the ball to Scherzer for Game 1 of 162, but who is really going to have the best season? Could any of them find themselves polishing a Cy Young Award in their trophy case this winter?
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District on Deck takes a look into the case for each of the three superstars on the Nationals’ pitching staff to win the National League Cy Young Award this season. Each pitcher presents a unique skillset and background that could help them make the push to truly elite. The field will be tough, with Dodgers’ reigning MVP Clayton Kershaw still in his prime, Giants’ World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner looking to carry over his dominant playoff performance, 2014 Cy Young runner-ups Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto hoping to earn serious consideration, and Mets’ Matt Harvey returning from Tommy John surgery. However, the Nationals are the only team to boast not just one, but three more than reasonable candidates to win the award. So what are their chances?
Next: The Candidates
Mar 28, 2015; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws against the New York Mets at Tradition Field. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The Candidates
Max Scherzer (age 30) – 2014 Stats: 18-5, 33 GS, 220.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 1.175 WHIP, 252 SO, 63 BB, 18 HR. Coming off his 2013 AL Cy Young Award-winning season, Scherzer continued his dominance of American League bats with Detroit, earning a trip to the All-Star Game and finishing 5th in Cy Young voting. He has been a workhorse, making at least 30 starts in every season of his career, save his rookie season. Now that he has returned to the National League, Scherzer is expected to climb to even greater heights, but will they be higher than those of his other teammates?
Stephen Strasburg (26) – 2014 Stats: 14-11, 34 GS, 215.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 1.121 WHIP, 242 SO, 43 BB, 23 HR. Nats fans heading out to Opening Day may be a little confused during the top of the 1st inning, as there hasn’t been a pitcher out there without the name Strasburg since 2011. When he was drafted as the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, scouts and analysts alike had him dubbed as a once in a generation talent, with a ticket to Cooperstown already punched. While he hasn’t lived up to these lofty expectations, Strasburg is undoubtedly one of the top pitchers in the game. Could this be the year he makes the leap from very good to superstar?
Jordan Zimmermann (29) – 2014 Stats: 14-5, 32 GS, 199.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.072 WHIP, 182 SO, 29 BB, 13 HR. The quiet Wisconsin native has been a key component of the Washington pitching staff for four years, silently putting up increasingly dominant numbers. He was unable to avoid the spotlight last season, however, as he became the first pitcher in Washington Nationals history to throw a no-hitter. With his impending free agency looming, all eyes are on Zimmermann to make a case for a Scherzer-esque contract next offseason. Will that translate to even greater success on the field?
Next: Their Chances Of Winning
Why They Can Win It
Mar 27, 2015; Melbourne, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws against the St. Louis Cardinals at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
http://t.co/HjvualNSSg lists three Nats among top six NL Cy Young choices: Scherzer, Strasburg and Zimmermann (all 10-1)
— Dan Steinberg (@dcsportsbog) March 5, 2015
Max Scherzer – Interesting stat for you: Max Scherzer faced 88 No. 9 hitters last season (9.7% of all hitters he faced). They went to put up a slash line of .309/.345/.481 with 39 total bases (per ESPN). Now, in 531 ABs, the average No. 9 hitter in the National League hit .166/.215/.229 (also coincidentally making up 9.7% of all ABs in the NL). We can assume No. 9 hitters doing so well against him last season was an anomaly, as they never hit above .247 in any of his other years in Detroit. So if we were to take Scherzer’s 2014 stats and replace the actual No. 9 hitters he faced with the average National League No. 9 hitter (usually a pitcher), his numbers look like this: 2.82 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 261 SO. As these numbers are based off of his 2014 numbers, quantify that with the fact that a majority of the National League hitters he will see in the first half of the season will never have faced him before. Ladies and gentlemen, watch out. Max Scherzer is poised to take the NL by storm.
Stephen Strasburg – In Randy Johnson‘s age 25 season, he went 7-13 with a 4.82 ERA. Sandy Koufax? 18-13 with a 3.92 ERA. How about Bob Gibson? 13-12 with a 3.24 ERA. All three of these pitchers have their names enshrined at Cooperstown. Yet, none of them performed as well in their age 25 seasons as Stephen Strasburg did. Now, this is not to say Strasburg is on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he has a long career ahead of him that would allow him to make a case to do so. Why couldn’t 2015 be the year he breaks out and becomes the superstar he was thought to be when he was drafted? Since his Tommy John surgery in 2010, he has slowly increased his inning count and strikeout totals. He still sports a 94 mph fastball and a repertoire of breaking balls that can freeze up some of the best hitters in the game. What’s not to like?
Jordan Zimmermann – Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw. Those are the names of the only two pitchers in Major League Baseball to have more than Jordan Zimmerman‘s 7 complete games over the past two years. Not convinced? Zimmermann’s BB/9 of 1.307 ranked 3rd in baseball last season, while his FIP of 2.68 ranked 7th, his HR/9 of 0.586 ranked 10th, and his WHIP of 1.072 ranked 9th. He finished 5th in Cy Young voting, earned his second All-Star selection, and pitched a dazzling 8.2 innings of one run ball in the playoffs. 2015 is also the final year of Zimmermann’s contract, giving him the added incentive to perform well in his walk year. At age 29, he is still in the middle of his prime and has shown no signs of regression.
Next: Who Ultimately Wins?
Jan 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer speaks during an introductory press conference at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
So Who Wins?
All three starters are sexy picks to win the NL Cy Young, but Max Scherzer stands out among them. Already sporting one Cy Young under his belt, Scherzer looks to be the best pitcher in the National League this season (that’s right Kershaw). Expect Mad Max to get off to a torrid start as flustered NL hitters haplessly attempt to figure him out at the plate. High strikeout totals and going deep into games will quickly become the norm, and Scherzer will be a no-brainer pick for the award. However, this does not mean the other members of the Nationals’ staff do not pitch well enough to earn consideration. In fact, I predict four Nationals starters to place in the top-10 of Cy Young voting for the second straight year (enter Gio Gonzalez anyone?), and that Scherzer’s teammates keep it interesting right down to the wire.
What? You don’t agree? You’re asking questions like, “you’re picking someone not named Clayton Kershaw to win it? Impossible!” Even though there is a player by the name of R.A. Dickey who did it only two years ago, I know, it sounds crazy. But that’s the greatest part of the preseason, anything is possible. Every team, player, coach, executive, and fan has hope for the upcoming season. But you’re sure right? You know for a fact that I’m wrong and you want me to hear about it. Let me know about it down in the comments section, and I’ll let you know what I think.