Washington Nationals Series Preview: Cardinals-Nationals (4/21-4/23)
Apr 18, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder
Jon Jay(19) celebrates with catcher
Yadier Molina(4) after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the game 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports
After taking three out of four from the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, the Washington Nationals (6-7) get set to take on a team that has dominated them in the last couple of seasons. While this series doesn’t have pennant race implications now in late April, but this series between the St. Louis Cardinals (8-3) and Nationals could be a matchup that takes place in October. In the last two seasons, St. Louis is 11-2 against the Nats, including 6-0 in 2013.
Before the season began, on the Yanks Go Yard Radio Show (which I host), I made my MLB season predictions. Before I knew how great the Cardinals are against the Nats, I picked St. Louis to beat Washington in the NLCS and ultimately, win the World Series.
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So far, the Cardinals have not done much to make me think otherwise. They have won five straight games and are coming off a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. One of the trades they made this winter was acquiring right fielder Jason Heyward from the Braves for starting pitcher Shelby Miller. So far, Heyward is hitting .213 with one home run and three RBI’s.
There are two hitters right now that are off to great starts for Mike Matheny’s club. Third baseman Matt Carpenter is hitting .400 with two home runs and ten RBI’s, has a .449 on-base percentage, and has recorded two hits in each of his last seven games. Another player that is doing well is left fielder Matt Holliday. He doesn’t have a home run, but he is hitting .361 with six RBI’s and is on a 11-game hitting streak.
The strength of this Cardinals team is their starting pitching. While the Nationals won’t have to see Adam Wainwright in this series, it doesn’t get much easier. The starter’s ERA for St. Louis is 1.92, which is the best in baseball.
Their bullpen ERA of 1.18 is the best in the National League and second behind the vaunted Royals’ bullpen (0.73). While closer Trevor Rosenthal has walked four batters in five games, but he has converted all four of his save chances and has a 1.59 ERA to go with eight strikeouts.
So, as we get you set for this series, let’s breakdown the three pitching matchups:
Apr 15, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher
Lance Lynn(31) throws the ball against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Tuesday: Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 5.11) vs. Lance Lynn (1-1, 1.64)- 7:05 PM ET, MASN + MLB NETWORK
In two starts, Gonzalez has looked great at times. However, one of the problems for Gonzalez at times has been his command. He has walked six batters in 12.1 innings. Go back to his first start against the Phillies where he had six dominant innings, but his command got away from him in the 7th with two walks and a hit by pitch.
Last time out against the Red Sox, Gonzalez was given a 8-2 lead in the bottom of the third inning and you could make the case he pitched to the scoreboard. He only gave up three runs, but the four walks have to be somewhat concerning.
However, Gio has had great numbers against the Cardinals in his career. In 3 starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA. In 23 innings pitched (7+ innings in all three), he has given up only three runs combined. The only Cardinal to homer of Gonzalez is Jhonny Peralta, but keep an eye on Heyward, who is 6-for-25 with four RBI’s against the left hander.
As for Lance Lynn, Nats fans might remember him as the pitcher who gave up the walk-off home run to Jayson Werth in Game 4 of the 2012 NLDS. The 27-year old has given up just one run in each of his two starts and has 13 strikeouts to two walks.
Lynn mainly uses his fastball, but according to Fangraphs, he has used his slider about 18% of the time with a six mile per hour difference between his fastball and changeup.
Lynn, who has won 15+ games each of the last three seasons, is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in five career games vs. the Nats. Two of those starts came last year, when he pitched to 0.86 ERA. He gave up one run, which was a home run by Danny Espinosa. Espinosa is 3-for-8 with two home runs and four RBI’s against him. The only other homer off of Lynn is from Bryce Harper.
Prediction: St. Louis takes the first game of the series. While both pitchers have good track records, Lynn is off to the better start and hasn’t shown the command issues that Gonzalez can have at times with his pitches. One bad inning against either of these offenses can be trouble (especially if Yunel Escobar is back), but the Cardinals find a way to win a 5-3 kind of game.
Apr 16, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher
Doug Fister(58) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Wednesday: Doug Fister (1-0, 0.69) vs. John Lackey (1-0, 2.77) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN + ESPN
So far this season, Doug Fister has continually been able to speed up the game and dominate hitters. He has pitched into the seventh inning in both of his outings, but both have also come against the Phillies, which have a mediocre lineup at best. In 12.1 innings, he has given up three runs (one earned run), struck out five and walked five.
Last time out, Fister did not give up an earned run, but left a lot of pitches up in the zone. He had 15 flyball outs to just four groundball outs. That and the four walks he had are not the way Fister wants to operate. Pitch f/x says that Fister has used his sinker over 2/3 of the time this season (68%)
The 31-year old right hander only has one career start vs. St. Louis, which came last season. On June 15, at Busch Stadium, he took the loss in a game in which he gave up four runs on seven hits over six innings. He gave up two homers in that start, one to Matt Adams and one to Holliday.
Now to John Lackey. The 36-year old veteran had a rough outing in his first start against the Reds when he gave up four runs on four hits over six innings with two walks and one strikeout. However, the right-hander shut out the Brewers in his last start as he gave up five hits over seven innings, struck out eight, and walked one.
This is what Mike Matheny had to say about his rotation, but in particular, players like Wainwright and Lackey, who are the two older veterans in the rotation.
“Waino’s doing a great job leading, as well as John Lackey. Both of them are going about it the right way, getting their work and trying to get better. It’s making a difference.” (h/t The Sporting News)
Lackey is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA against Washington in two starts, but he hasn’t faced the Nats since 2008. Jayson Werth has a home run off Lackey, but Yunel Escobar is also 9-for-24 (.375) with one double and two walks.
Prediction: Lackey is going to bring his bulldog attitude to the mound and keep this one close, but I like Doug Fister in this one. It will be a tough challenge, but if Fister can keep his sinker down in the zone, he is going to be effective against this St. Louis lineup. Otherwise, he might give up another couple of home runs. Nationals win 7-4.
Apr 17, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher
Max Scherzer(31) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Thursday – Max Scherzer vs. Michael Wacha – 4:05 PM ET, MASN
In his last start against the Phillies, Max Scherzer had all of his pitches working. He went eight innings, gave up one run on four hits and struck out nine. He has thrown the most innings of any NL pitcher (21.2 innings) and has 25 strikeouts (8+ K’s in each start).
His last two starts have come against the Phillies, but he has had his fastball velocity on average at about 93 miles per hour, according to Fangraphs. So far, he has been everything as advertised for Matt Williams and company. How about the fact that right-handers against Scherzer are hitting 4-for-37 (.108).
This matchup is intriguing because of the caliber of pitchers facing each other and that this was a matchup in a spring training game down in Jupiter in March. Back on March 25, Scherzer gave up three hits over six innings and struck out nine Cardinals. As for Michael Wacha, he gave up four hits over 5.2 innings, walked one and struck out four.
Scherzer has only faced four batter on St. Louis in his career, with Yadier Molina having a double against him, so his pitch arsenal will be somewhat unfamiliar to St. Louis.
As for Wacha, it is great to see the 23-year old back in the Cardinals rotation after missing most of the 2014 season due to injury. Wacha, who was a key contributor on the 2013 NL pennant team, has given up two runs in 13.1 innings pitched, both via the solo shot against the Cincinnati Reds (Todd Frazier and Joey Votto).
Wacha only has six strikeouts in two games, but he has induced 25 groundball outs. So far, his velocity hasn’t missed a beat as his average velocity of 93 mph is similar to last year (Fangraphs), when he pitched out of the bullpen in October, and in 2013. However, he is using his cutter more often, at about 20%. (10.4% last year).
In two starts against the Nationals, Wacha is 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA. Last season, on April 18, he went seven innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out seven, and gave up a homer to Anthony Rendon.
Prediction: This game will be a pitcher’s duel, but this is one that the Nationals gave Max Scherzer the big bucks for. Yes, it is April, but a series win over St. Louis would be big for this team’s confidence after a rough start. Both pitchers will throw great games, but give me the Nats by a score of 3-1 in the series finale.