Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals-Marlins (4/24-4/26)
Apr 21, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Miami Marlins right fielder
Giancarlo Stanton(27) rounds third after hitting a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals (7-9) will begin a three game series against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park tonight. The Marlins have had a slow start to the season and sit at the bottom of the National League East with a 5-11 record. There are reports that Jeffrey Loria, the Marlins owner, is already meddling in team management (which never works out well for the team). Loria is reportedly upset about the team’s slow start and may be looking to replace manager Mike Redmond.
The Marlins have not been winning games and there may be tension between Redmond and Loria, but there is no reason for the Nationals to look past this series. The Marlins improved their team in the off season, and will get out of the NL East cellar before long, thus allowing the Philadelphia Phillies to take their rightful place in the basement of the division.
The Marlins have some dangerous hitters who have a history of burning the Nationals in the past.
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The premier hitter of the Marlins club is Giancarlo Stanton. He is only hitting .241 at the moment, but gets walked frequently because of his power. His on base percentage is .362 and slugging percentage is .517. Stanton has a .317 batting average against the Nats in his career to go with 22 home runs and 53 RBI’s. In other words, he has always been a problem for Nationals pitchers.
The Marlins signed former National Michael Morse in the off season and are batting him right behind Stanton in the order to give Stanton protection. Morse is hitting .233 with an on base percentage of .313 and slugging percentage of .367. Stanton has four home runs so far this year, and Morse has hit two.
These power guys haven’t yet heated up for the Marlins, but they are the types of hitters who can heat up in a series or hit a home run whenever they come to the plate. If they get hot during this series, it will be a grim start to the road trip for the Nationals.
Christian Yelich has been another Marlins hitter who has been a tough out for Nationals pitchers, but he has been dealing with a back injury and has been in and out of the lineup. At this point, it is unknown whether he will be able to play during the series with the Nationals.
Other Marlins hitters have been picking up the slack left by the absence of Yelich. J.T. Realmuto, the catcher, has been on fire to start the season, batting .304. Marcell Ozuna and Adeiny Hechavarria are both hitting for average. The current line up, even missing Yelich, doesn’t have any easy outs.
The Marlins bench hasn’t been hitting particularly well, and has been a problem for Redmond in the late innings when having to go to a pinch hitter.
The Marlins real problem so far this year has been their pitching. Let’s look at the pitching match ups for the series to see which team may have the advantage.
Next: Zimmermann vs. Latos
Apr 18, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher
Jordan Zimmermann(27) pitches during the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Friday: Jordan Zimmermann (1-2, 6.14 ERA) vs. Mat Latos (0-3, 10.24 ERA), 7:05 pm EST, MASN 2
Neither Jordan Zimmermann nor Mat Latos have pitched well this season like their career numbers suggest they will.
Zimmermann has had three starts this season. In his first start against the New York Mets, he appeared to be vintage Jordan, only allowing one run in six innings and getting the win.
Zimmermann’s other two starts have been shaky. In his second start against the Boston Red Sox, he didn’t get out of the third inning, allowing seven earned runs. His pitches had no movement.
Against the Phillies in his last start, he only allowed two earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched. He took the loss due to shoddy defense behind him that allowed two unearned runs. However, Jordan had to battle during the entire outing and allowed an uncharacteristic four walks. He threw 101 pitches just to get through those six innings.
Mat Latos has a hyperinflated ERA due to a dreadful first start against the Atlanta Braves when he didn’t survive the first inning. He gave up seven earned runs in less than an inning. That translated to an ERA of 94.50. He has brought that ERA down to 10.24 due to the two good starts he has had since then.
Latos subsequently only gave up two earned runs in four innings against the Braves and two earned runs in five innings pitched against the Mets. He has been pitching much more like the Marlins expected him to when they traded for him. However, he hasn’t gone long in any outing this season.
This pitching matchup is full of question marks. If both pitchers revert to form, run scoring will be at a premium for both teams. If both struggle, the Nats may have the advantage as there are concerns about Latos’ fastball velocity thus far this season. If the Nationals hitters are patient and push Latos into six or seven innings, he may tire and become hittable.
The Nationals have a slight advantage in this matchup. However, if Jordan struggles, it could be a long day for the Nats.
Next: Strasburg vs. Koehler
Apr 19, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher
Stephen Strasburg(37) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies during the third inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit:
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday: Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 4.50 ERA) vs. Tom Koehler (1-2, 6.75 ERA), 4:10 pm EST, MASN
Stephen Strasburg is coming off a great outing against the Phillies, when he went 7.1 innings and only gave up one earned run for his first win of the season. He was throwing his fastball through the plate, which is when he is most effective. The weather conditions were perfect for a Strasburg start as well–not too hot, too cold or too humid.
Strasburg usually pitches very well against the Marlins (9-5, 3.44 ERA in 19 starts). Pitching in their indoor, temperature controlled stadium doesn’t hurt him either. He is not one of those pitchers that is bothered by pitching indoors as some are. Even when pitching outdoors in their old stadium, Strasburg usually found a way to beat the Marlins.
Koehler started the season well, only giving up two earned runs in each of his first two starts against the Braves. However, his last start against the Mets was terrible. He was pitching fine until the fourth inning, but then the wheels fell off. He gave up seven earned runs in the fourth inning while only recording one out. He became hittable and the Mets took advantage.
It’s early in the season and it is certainly too soon to tell if these pitcher’s last starts will carry over to this game. If you could say that, the advantage clearly would be with Strasburg. Koehler will probably right his ship and not implode again. If he does, the Nationals hitters have to take advantage and push runs across the plate.
Strasburg’s record against the Marlins in his career indicates that he usually pitches well against the Fish. However, he either has a really good outing (less than four earned runs, and often no earned runs), or he is dreadful (6-7 earned runs).
The advantage is with the Nationals for this matchup. However, if Strasburg has one of his rare implosions against the Marlins and Koehler reverts to form, the Nationals could easily lose this game.
Next: Gonzalez vs. Haren
Apr 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher
Gio Gonzalez(47) pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Sunday: Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 3.44 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (1-1, 3.32 ERA), 1:10 pm EST, MASN2 and WUSA 9
Both Gio Gonzalez and Dan Haren have pitched well to start the 2015 season. Both of them so far have accumulated ERA’s right in line with their career numbers.
Haren’s last outing was against the Phillies, which was a loss for him, where he gave up four earned runs in six innings. He was hurt by two home runs and by walking three batters. His control was off during the game.
Gonzalez’s last start was his best of the year so far. He pitched six innings against the St. Louis Cardinals and did not allow an earned run. The Nationals rode Gio’s start to a victory against the Cards. Although Gio allowed eight hits, he danced out of trouble every time there were runners on base. His high pitch count because of all the base runners is why he only pitched six innings. He was also clearly tiring during the sixth inning.
Haren has pitched seven innings in one game, and six in the other two. Gio has not pitched more than six innings this year. Neither pitcher has been stretched by number of innings, but Gio has had a high pitch count in each of his starts due to the amount of walks and hits he has allowed. Haren only pitched six innings (79 pitches) in his first start of the year, but has thrown 97 and 102 pitches in his last two start respectively.
The bullpens may be the deciding factor in this matchup. If both pitchers get through the sixth inning, the teams will be looking to their relievers to finish out this game.
Both teams have had their bullpen issues. The Nationals have not settled on roles with their relievers and have had to fill the pen with a lot of young arms due to injuries to Casey Janssen and Craig Stammen. The Nats bullpen is still a work in progress and has been inconsistent.
The Marlins bullpen has had its problems to start the year. Closer Steve Cishek had a terrible first outing where he gave up four earned runs. He gave up a run in his second appearance, but gave up no runs in his next two outings and is reverting to his usual lights out form.
Mike Dunn started out the season fine, but has gotten worse over his last three games and his ERA is now 9.00. Brad Hand and Henderson Alvarez have gotten lit up at times. However, A. J. Ramos has been stellar, and Sam Dyson and Bryan Morris have performed well.
This pitching matchup and bullpen matchup is a toss up. So much will depend on which members of the respective teams bullpens are available. If the Nats see Hand and Alvarez, advantage to the Nationals. If the Washington hitters have to deal with Ramos, Dyson and Morris, the advantage goes to the Fish.