Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals at Mets (4/30-5/3)
Apr 26, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey (33) before a game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals came into the series against the Atlanta Braves on a five game losing streak with a struggling offense and a team making numerous errors on the field. However, they leave Atlanta winning two games out of three and feeling much better about themselves. The moment everyone will remember about this series is the comeback the Nationals made on Tuesday when they rallied from a 10-2 deficit to beat Atlanta 13-12.
The important thing about that game was the Nats carried that momentum into the series finale, where they beat the Braves 13-4 as Jordan Zimmerman threw seven solid innings of baseball and contributed with three RBI’s of his own. The Nationals (9-13) now head up to New York to play in a ballpark they have had success in the last couple of years (16-4 in the last two seasons). But, the New York Mets (15-7) come into this series as the best team in the National League.
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In the first series of the season, the Mets took two of the three from the Nats at Nats Park. It was a very competitive series, but Washington gave New York too many extra outs. Out of the ten runs the Nats allowed in the series, four of them were earned. This was due in part to Washington’s bad defense, including three errors by shortstop Ian Desmond.
Both teams are coming into this series looking much different than they did in that opening series. For the Mets, they are without third baseman David Wright (hamstring), catcher Travis d’Arnaud (fractured hand), and former Nats lefty reliever Jerry Blevins (fractured forearm). d’Arnaud was 5-for-11 in that first series with four RBIs.
When you talk about the Mets, you have to talk about their starting pitching. Currently, New York’s starting pitching ERA is at 3.23, which is fourth in the Major Leagues. They have two pitchers with four wins in Bartolo Colon and Friday night’s starter, Matt Harvey. In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia has been excellent as the closer, converting all nine of his save opportunities.
As for the offense, New York has 89 RBI’s as a team, which is third in the National League. One of the players that has stood out so far is first baseman Lucas Duda. Duda is hitting .312 on the season with two home runs and 12 RBI’s and leads the team in on-base percentage (.413).
Before we breakdown the four pitching matchups, we want to remind you to follow our friends over at Rising Apple for some of the best Mets coverage on the internet:
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Apr 25, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg (1-2, 4.88 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (2-2, 2.96) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN
Both of these pitchers are coming into this game off of rough outings in their last start. First, let’s start with Strasburg.
After an excellent start against the Phillies, Strasburg struggled against the Miami Marlins, especially with his fastball. He gave up four earned runs on eight hits in six innings, struck out six batters, and walked two. In my reaction I posted last Sunday, I made the case that Strasburg needs to use the changeup more if he wants to have better success against hitters.
While Strasburg is 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA in five career starts at Citi Field, the Mets got to him in his first start against them this season on April 9. In that game, Strasburg gave up six runs (three earned) on nine hits. He struck out five batters and walked three. The big damage in that game came in the third inning when New York put up four runs, all via RBI singles. One of the hitters that has had success against Strasburg is left field Michael Cuddyer, who is 4-for-12 against him, with a RBI.
As for Jacob deGrom, he came into his last start with the Yankees having a 18.1 inning scoreless streak. That streak would quickly end on a two-run homer by Mark Teixiera. Teixiera hit two home runs off deGrom in the Mets ‘6-1 loss, a game in which the defending NL Rookie of the Year went five innings and gave up six runs on eight hits.
While deGrom has never beaten the Nationals in his short career, he was very good in his first outing of 2015 against them on April 8. He gave up a Ryan Zimmerman two-run homer in the first, which cost him the game, but he was great otherwise. In six innings, he gave up two earned runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked two.
Keep an eye on Ian Desmond in this game as the Nats shortstop is the only other player besides Zimmerman who has a home run against deGrom. In his career, Desmond is a .263 career hitter at Citi Field with nine home runs and 27 RBI’s.
Advantage: I am going to go with deGrom in this one. He had a rough outing against the Yankees, but this is a pitcher that you don’t expect to have back-to-back clunkers. As for Strasburg, he needs to bring that changeup to New York and get ahead of hitters move to have a chance in this game. It’s a close one, but I like the Mets to win this one, despite the Nats recent offensive surge.
Next: Friday's Matchup
Apr 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (1-2, 1.26) vs. Matt Harvey (4-0, 3.04 ERA), 7:10 PM ET, MASN
This is the matchup I am most looking forward to out of the four games this weekend because this is the pitching matchup that was expected to happen on Opening Day before Mets manager Terry Collins decided to go to Bartolo Colon.
Nationals fans have to be relieved that Max Scherzer will not be missing his turn in the rotation after jamming the thumb on his pitching hand last Thursday against the Cardinals. Scherzer has been the best pitcher in the Nats rotation to this point. He has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any of his four starts and has racked up 29 strikeouts.
Scherzer took the ball for Opening Day against the Mets on April 6 and was unhittable for the first five innings. Then, after an Ian Desmond error in the sixth, Lucas Duda would end up winning the game with a two-run single to right. Scherzer went 7.2 innings in that outing, gave up three runs (none earned) on four hits, struck out eight, and walked two.
A player to keep an eye on for the Mets in this one is Curtis Granderson. He was the batter who made Scherzer work the most in that first start out of the leadoff spot. Granderson is 4-for-14 against Scherzer with one home run, two RBI’s, and four walks.
The Nationals lineup will have a tough time going up against Matt Harvey. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Harvey has been excellent for the Mets. He has gone six or more innings in each start. Last time out, against the Yankees, he went 8.2 innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out seven Yankees and walked two. He has seven or more strikeouts in each of his four games.
With the fastball up into the late 90’s, Harvey dominated the Nationals when he went up against Strasburg on April 9. He shut them out for six innings, gave up four hits, struck out nine (three from Bryce Harper), and walked one.
Against the Nats in his career, Harvey is 2-1 in five starts with a 0.82 ERA. The only players with two or more hits against him are Desmond, Werth, Zimmerman, and Span. Desmond and Zimmerman do have a home run against him.
Advantage: This is a game where I could see the score being 2-1 when its all set and done. Runs will be at a premium and I don’t expect Scherzer’s thumb to be an issue in this game. That being said, Washington can’t seem to have success against Harvey. With Harper being 0-for-10 against him and five strikeouts, Washington needs Harper to continue to get on base with his great plate discipline. It’s a classic pitcher’s duel, but the Mets win.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Apr 26, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) bunts during the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (1-2, 5.01) vs. Jon Niese (2-1, 2.74), 7:10 PM ET, MASN
In the battle of left-handers, these are two pitchers that are both coming off of rough outings in their last start, similar to Strasburg and deGrom.
For Gio Gonzalez, he has got himself into some big trouble in at least one inning every start. He was able to hold the Cardinals to no runs in one of those games, but allowed 12 players to reach base. While the Nats lefty wasn’t helped in his last start by a botched rundown, he allowed six runs from innings four thru six against the Marlins.
Thru the early stages of the season, Gonzalez’s command has been an issue as he has walked 11 batters in his first four starts. He only walked one against Miami last Sunday, but he managed to only induce eight ground ball outs, a season worst. Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, but he goes up against a New York offense that can put runs on the board despite their injuries.
Against the Mets in his career, Gio is 7-4 in 13 starts with a 3.13 ERA. Last season, New York hit him hard. He was 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in five outings as he gave up 13 earned runs in 28.2 innings. Cuddyer is 6-for-14 against him with a home run, three RBi’s and five walks, but keep an eye on John Mayberry Jr. possibly getting a start against him (two home runs in 19 at-bats).
Jon Niese had three good starts in a row to start the season, giving up only one earned run in each. Against the Yankees last Sunday night, the lefty gave up six runs (four earned runs) on eight hits, struck out three, walked one, and gave up a home run to Alex Rodriguez.
Niese is a ground ball pitcher, but one of the things Nationals hitters need to do in this game is stay patient. Niese has 11 walks this season, including four in a start against the Braves back on April 21. If Washington can work the pitch count up, they can get into the middle relief of the Mets bullpen a lot quicker.
Against Washington, Niese is 3-3 with a 3.41 ERA in ten career starts. Last season, Washington beat him up to the tune of a 5.82 ERA (0-3) and scored 11 runs (three homers) in 17 innings. The player to watch in this game is third baseman Danny Espinosa. He is 7-for-18 against the Mets lefty with one home run and three RBI’s.
Advantage: I expect this game to be the one in this series that has the most runs scored. Gonzalez and Niese are pitchers who can be very good or very bad on any given start. Washington’s success against Niese gives the Nationals the edge and their first win of the series in a 8-5 kind of game.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Apr 27, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) throws a pitch against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Doug Fister (1-1, 3.28) vs. Dillon Gee (0-1, 4.26), 1:10 PM ET, MASN
When you look at Doug Fister’s first month of the 2015 season, one of the problems that has stood out is that he has leaving too many pitches up in the zone. Fister, who is normally one of the best ground ball pitchers in the game, has had two starts this year where he has induced single digit groundball outs.
In his last start against the Braves on Monday, Fister gave up five runs (four earned runs) on ten hits, struck out three and walked two. He has walked two or more batters in three consecutive starts.
While he has thrown 100+ pitches in his last two starts, Washington will want to see that groundball total go back to the other two starts this season, when he induced 14 groundball outs. If he can pound the strike zone and get ahead of hitters, that plays right into his strength of getting key groundballs in big situations.
Against the Mets, Fister has been outstanding. He is 4-0 with a 1.01 ERA against them, including a 0.89 ERA in three starts last year. He gave up two earned runs in 20.1 innings, struck out 13 batters, and walked one. That being said, the hitter with the most success against Fister is shortstop Wilmer Flores, who is 5-for-9 with a home run and two RBI’s.
For the Mets, Dillon Gee is the number five starter, but New York has a couple young starters down in triple-A that could be up later this year in Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. New York was shopping Gee all offseason in a trade, but could not get a deal done.
However, Gee has been very good in his last two starts. Over his last 14.2 innings (7+ innings in each), he gave up a combined three earned runs. Take a look at his last start against the Marlins on Monday. He got that Miami offense to hit 18 groundball outs and got into the eighth inning with only 70 pitches.
Against the Nationals, Gee has had good success. He is 8-4 against Washington in 16 career starts with a 3.69 ERA. However, the Nats got to him last season. Gee was 1-1 in four starts last year with a 5.87 ERA, giving up 15 earned runs over 23 innings. Ian Desmond has three home runs against him and Bryce Harper (7-for-19) also has a pair of home runs against the right hander.
Advantage: I like the way Gee has been pitching as of late, but the Nationals get the checkmark in this one. Eventually, Fister will get back to getting his pitches down in the zone. Maybe, facing a team who he has had success against, will be good for Fister to get back on track. Nats get the split.