Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals vs. Braves (5/8-5/10)
May 6, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper (34) watches his third home run of the day leave the park against the Miami Marlins during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals continue their six-game home stand with a three-game set this weekend against the Atlanta Braves. The Nats just finished a three game series against the Braves last week, where they took two out of three at Atlanta. More importantly for the Nationals, that series marked the Nats turn around after an abysmal start and a six-game losing streak. The wild, instant classic game two of the series where the Nats came from eight runs down sparked a revival in Nationals baseball. Since that game, Washington has won seven of their last nine games and scored 55 runs to their opponents’ 28 runs. The Nats look to continue their recent success and pull closer to the NY Mets in the NL East standings.
The Atlanta Braves currently sit in second in the NL East, a half game in front of the Nats and four back of the Mets for the division lead. After getting off to a hot start and winning their first five games, the Braves have come back to earth and have performed in line with their early season projections, going 9-14. The Braves are coming off a winning series against the Philadelphia Phillies and splitting a four-game set against the Cincinnati Reds.
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With this rivalry, the records go out the window and after a nasty slide by Andrelton Simmons into Yunel Escobar and an exchange of bean balls, tensions are high, as they always are, heading into this series.
The Braves will look to counter with the hot hitting of Freddie Freeman. Freeman is having a great season so far with a .318/.561/.937 slash and going a ridiculous 8-for-13 against the Nats last series. He always seems to come through for the Braves against the Nats and keeping him in check will be a huge key to a series win for Washington.
The Nats bats are hot coming into this weekend’s set and none more so than Bryce Harper‘s. If you didn’t hear about his three home run game on Wednesday, you may be living under a rock. Bryce is having a great year so far and him getting on base and hitting the ball a very long way is the cog in the wheel that keeps the Nats offense moving.
Let’s start our series preview and compare match ups to see who has the edge this weekend:
Next: Next: Friday's Matchup
Apr 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Friday: Gio Gonzalez (2-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Eric Stults (1-2, 4.91 ERA), 7:05 pm EST, broadcast on MASN
Making the first start for the Nats this series is Gio Gonzalez. Gio sports a 3.86 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP, but he has been a bit inconstant this year. Out of his five starts, Gio has allowed no runs in two starts and five runs or more in two starts. He has not faced the Braves so far this year, but last year the Braves had Gio’s number. In 2014 Gonzalez gave up 15 hits in 10.1 innings over two starts against Atlanta.
Freddie Freeman has seen Gio a few times over the years and for the most part, Gonzalez has been able to keep him under wraps. Freeman has seven hits and seven strike outs over a span of 24 at-bats.
Eric Stults makes the start for the Braves with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Stults was fortunate enough to face the Nats the game before their come from behind breakout game in that series and recorded the win. He went 6.1 innings, only giving up four hits and two runs and received great run support on the way to a Braves’ 8-4 victory.
Stults did not fare well against the Nats last year, giving up 18 hits and eight runs over 7.2 innings pitched in those two starts. In a limited sample size, Danny Espinosa actually has the most success against Stults, going 5-for-9 with a home run.
Bryce Harper has only seen Stults once in his career last series and went 1-for-5. Bryce has historically struggled a bit against left-handed pitching and that trend has continued this year. In 31 plate appearances, Bryce has hit .182/.419/.318 vs. lefties. The good news is Bryce continues to be an on-base machine even against lefties and this should help generate runs for the Nats.
This is a hard matchup to call because of the inconsistencies with Gio so far this year and Stults’ lefty advantage may neutralize Bryce, but I have to go with Gio for this game. Look for a few runs in this matchup and each team going to the bullpen early and often. The Nationals’ bullpen has been a question mark, but Tanner Roark seems to have found his way and they have been solid the past few games. The bullpen for the Nats may have to win this one or keep it close enough for another late inning comeback for the Nats to pull off a series opening win.
Next: Next: Saturday's Matchup
May 3, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Doug Fister (58) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday: Doug Fister (2-1, 2.61 ERA) vs. Julio Teheran (3-1, 3.82 ERA), 4:05 pm EST, MASN
Doug Fister starts the second game of the series with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. In Fister’s last start against the Braves, he got knocked around a bit,going 5.2 innings giving up five runs on ten hits. So far this year, Fister has struggled a bit with his command and he has had to grind his way through his starts. Traditionally a groundball pitcher, this year his ground ball rate is down from 48.9% to 42.2% and his line drive rate is significantly up from 16.9% to 24.5%. If Fister leaves the ball up in the zone, he could get hit and hit hard leading to a long afternoon for the Nationals.
Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman have fared the best against Fister. each batting .333 and .364 respectively. Both lefties matchup well against Fister due to the lefty-righty split and both are good low-ball hitters. Fister will have to pitch carefully to these two if he wants to have a successful outing.
Julio Teheran makes the start for the Braves with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Teheran was the starting pitcher in the wild, 13-12 game against the Nats that sparked their current run. Although Teheran earned a no decision, he did not pitch well with an eight run lead giving up ten hits and seven runs, only three earned, over 5.2 innings pitched. Instead of going after the Nats hitters, Teheran floated offspeed p
itches most of the night and he gave up two homers as a result.
Fastball usage is key to Teheran’s success. Historically, he throws the fastball 60% of the time, but against the Nats, he only threw the fastball 49.4% of the time. Julio knows his fastball rate is key to his success and increased his fastball rate to 65.7% his last start against the Reds. That lead to good results as gave up three hits over six innings. Look for how much Teheran is throwing his heater early to gauge how well his day will go.
Bryce Harper has had the most success against Julio Teheran on the Nats roster, going 8-for-19 with three doubles and two homers.
This is another hard matchup to call as the Braves have two great left-handed hitters that fare well against Fister and he has been inconsistent with his location so far this year. Bryce Harper is on fire and coming off a three-homer game and matches up well against Teheran.
The key for Fister is to keep the ball low in the zone and the key for Teheran is to continue to pound hitters with his fastball. I have to give a slight edge to Julio Teheran in this game because I think he has figured out he is a much better pitcher when he is throwing heat and Fister has been too inconstant this year to be counted on to carry the team. Look for a pitchers duel with the Braves winning a close one.
Next: Next: Saturday's Matchup
May 4, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws to the Miami Marlins during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Sunday: Jordan Zimmermann (2-2, 4.15 ERA) vs. Alex Wood (1-2, 4.32 ERA), 1:35 pm EST, broadcast on MASN
For the finale, the Nats start Jordan Zimmermann who sports a 4.15 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. In Zimmermann’s last start against the Braves, Jordan rode the wave of the Nats hot bats and benefited from the second straight 13 run game from the Nats offense. Zimmermann was not perfect, but pitched well with the lead, going seven innings and giving up four runs on eight hits. Jordan’s ERA is a bit high so far this year due to his disastrous start in Boston, where he gave up seven earned runs in only 2.1 innings pitched, In his other five starts, Zimmermann has only given up a max of four runs.
Zimmermann’s had a bit of bad luck so far this year as evident by his .321 BABIP and that, coupled with a lower than average strikeout rate compared to his career stats, has led to more base runners and more runs.
Again, Freddie Freeman continues to be a Nats killer. In 22 at bats against Zimmermann, he has slashed .364/.440/.455. Zimmermann faces the same challenge as Fister in terms of working around the two powerful lefties in the Braves line-up. How Zimmermann handles Freeman will likely determine the outcome of this game.
The Braves finish the series with Alex Wood who posts a 4.32 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Wood was on the other end of the second 13 run output in as many nights against the Nats, giving up five earned runs on six hits in five innings of work. Wood has struggled a bit this season as his strikeout rate has dropped from 24.5% last season to 16.4% this year and he is giving up a few more walks as well.
Bryce Harper has also fared well against Alex Wood. In 11 at-bats, he has five hits with a couple doubles. The Nats as a team did not do well against Wood last year. In four starts, Wood went 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA, only giving up 20 hits in 25.1 innings pitched. Last year’s stats don’t seem to matter to Alex Wood as he has not started the year well. He needs to miss a few more bats to keep his production up to the level it was last season. If he doesn’t, that could benefit the Nats in this game.
This matchup is a bit more clear-cut as Jordan Zimmermann has the advantage. Zimmermann is an overall better pitcher and seems to have had a bit of bad luck so far this season. Although his strikeout rate is down a bit this year, Zimmermann should be able to grind his way through this start and put the Nats in a good position to win. Alex Wood may come out firing and have a great start, but he seems to be having a down year and Bryce may have his number, which is good news considering how hot Harper is right now. This might not be much of a game as the Nats look to close out the series with a win against the Braves.