Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals at Diamondbacks (5/11-5/13)
May 8, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals start a seven game road trip to the West Coast tonight with a three game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Washington comes into this series having won four straight games and 10 of their last 12.
The Diamondbacks had a rough year in 2014, ending with a record of 64-98. The organization fired manager Kirk Gibson before the season was over. The team is in rebuilding mode, looking to turn things around. That being said, Arizona has had a decent start to the season. The Diamondbacks are 14-16 and six games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
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The Diamondbacks fortunes rise and fall on their best player, Paul Goldschmidt. The first baseman was hurt for a significant portion of last season, which is one reason why the Diamondbacks had a miserable season last year. Goldschmidt has begun the season hitting .345 with nine home runs and appears to be completely back to normal.
Center fielder A.J. Pollock is hitting .306 and outfielder Mark Trumbo is contributing with a .287 batting average and four home runs. Newcomer Jake Lamb has been impressive defensively at third base and at the plate, as he was hitting .404 before suffering a stress injury in his left foot. He went on the DL April 21st and was expected to be out of the lineup for three weeks. The Nationals won’t see Lamb in this series, but they will see one of Arizona’s big offseason acquisitions in Yasmany Tomas. Tomas is hitting .296 with no home runs and seven RBI’s on the season
The biggest hole in the D’Backs lineup is Nick Ahmed, the shortstop, who is only hitting .133. Second baseman Cliff Pennington is hitting .194, having his struggles at the plate. One of the bizarre choices that Arizona has made this year is replacing Aaron Hill with Pennington. The Nats have to hope they see more Pennington and less Hill for the series. Most of the rest of the team is hitting north of .250, except for catcher Tuffy Gosewisch who is contributing with a .229 average.
The Nationals counterpart to Paul Goldschmidt is Bryce Harper, who has been hot lately. Harper has a league leading 11 home runs and is hitting .300 with a slugging percentage of .655. Ryan Zimmerman had a good series against the Braves, and has been hitting better over the last seven games. Plus, Wilson Ramos heads into this series with a 13-game hitting streak.
The biggest hole in the Nationals lineup right now is Jayson Werth, who is only hitting .190 and often looks lost at the plate.
The Nationals will have an advantage in this series if it comes down a save situation. Drew Storen has and ERA of 1.29 and nine saves. The Diamondbacks closer, Addison Reed, has an ERA of 4.00 and two saves.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the projected pitching matchups for the series.
Next: Scherzer vs. Collmenter
May 6, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Monday: Max Scherzer (2-3, 2.11 ERA) vs. Josh Collmenter (3-3, 3.40 ERA) 9:40 pm EST, broadcast on MASN2
Max Scherzer has been pitching very well this year and there is no reason to expect he will be anything other than great tonight. Scherzer’s low ERA is quite remarkable considering that he is pitching to an entire new league full of hitters that he is not familiar with and is having to learn the batters tendencies. When your stuff is as good as Scherzer’s, perhaps not knowing the hitters well does not matter.
The league is only batting .216 against Scherzer. He has already accumulated 49 strikeouts this year. His ERA ballooned during his last start, when he gave up a three run home run to Giancarlo Stanton in the 8th inning when he was tiring out.
Josh Collmenter has been a steady presence for the D’backs rotation this year. He is a pitcher, not a thrower. He doesn’t have much of a fastball. He relies on movement and location to fool the hitters. He is vulnerable to the home run, having given up four in his six starts. That might be good news for the home run happy Nats, who are third in the National League in homers with 32.
Collmenter has good control and doesn’t walk many batters. He has only issued three walks in his six starts and he has not hit a batter yet this year. The Nationals are going to have to hit their way onto the basepaths. Collmenter will not help the Nats out in that regard.
If Scherzer is pitching well and goes deep in this game, the Nationals have the advantage. However, the Nationals don’t tend to hit pitchers well that they don’t see often, and Collmenter may be able to keep them off balance with his off speed stuff.
Next: Strasburg vs. De La Rosa
May 5, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) pitches during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Tuesday: Stephen Strasburg (2-3, 4.73 ERA) vs. Rubby De La Rosa (3-2, 4.38 ERA), 9:40 pm EST, MASN2
Stephen Strasburg is currently scheduled to make the start on Tuesday against the D’backs. Strasburg left his last start with pain in his shoulder blade, which he says was related to changing the way he throws to compensate for a sore ankle. Treatment has apparently resolved those issues.
During that last start, Strasburg only lasted three innings before he was pulled when it was apparent he was having trouble loosening his shoulder and had pain when throwing pitches. He gave up two runs in those three innings. He took the loss because the Nationals were unable to score more than one run in the game.
Strasburg in his career has pitched very well against the Diamondbacks whether he has faced them at Nats Park or Chase Field. He has five starts against Arizona. His record is 4-1 and has never allowed more than two earned runs in any of the games he has pitched against them.
Rubby De La Rosa has been inconsistent as a starter this year. When he is good, he is very very good. His last start was a three hit shutout of the Padres. He only gave up one earned run in a loss to the Pirates when his team gave him no run support. Balanced against that is a loss to the Dodgers back on May 1 when he allowed five runs in five innings. Against the San Francisco Giants in the series opener, he allowed six runs on eight hits.
De La Rosa has allowed at least one home run in four of his starts this year and the only games in which he did not allow a long ball were the gems he pitched against the Padres and the Pirates. He walks on average two batters per game.
How this game will go for the Nationals will depend upon which De La Rosa shows up at the ballpark on Tuesday: The one that allows home runs or the one that doesn’t. If the Nationals connect on the long ball–look out Diamondbacks.
May 8, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Wednesday: Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 3.62 ERA) v. Jeremy Hellickson (1-3, 5.85 ERA), 3:40 pm EST, MASN and MLB Network
Gio Gonzalez has had a very solid beginning to his season for the Nationals. He won his last start against the Atlanta Braves, going seven innings and only giving up two runs. He only walked one batter and had eight strikeouts.
His fastball velocity is back to where it was before he had the problems with shoulder inflammation last season that sent him to the DL and affected his performance. Gio seems to have completely gotten over his shoulder problems.
As the only lefty in the Nats rotation, Gio may have trouble with the Arizona lineup, which is heavily right handed. This may be a game when right hander Aaron Hill may get a start at second base in place of the switch hitting Pennington.
Jeremy Hellickson, on the other hand, has not been solid for Arizona. He had a rough season in 2013, going 12-10 with a 5.17 ERA. He had to have elbow surgery at the beginning of the 2014 season and only pitched 13 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. He was traded by Tampa Bay to Arizona in December. He has continued to struggle since the Diamondbacks acquired him as his ERA currently sits at 5.85.
He has had one really good start this year. Back on April 19 against the Giants, he gave up one run over 6.1 innings, but San Francisco was struggling at that point in the season. Other than that, he has been giving up runs and not going deep in games too often. He has only gone past six innings in a start twice. In his last start, he managed 4.2 innings and gave up five runs in a no decision against the Padres.
Unless the Nationals have one of those games where they can’t hit at all and Hellickson, for one night, finds his form, I would have to give the Nationals the edge in this game. However, if Gonzalez has trouble getting outs from the Arizona right handed heavy lineup, this game may be a high scoring affair.