Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals at Padres (5/14-5/17)
May 10, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Justin Upton against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
After taking two out of three games from the Arizona Diamondbacks to begin their west coast trip, the Washington Nationals (19-16) will end their road trip at PETCO Park when they take on the San Diego Padres for a four game series, beginning tonight.
Washington brought the offense to the ballpark at Chase Field, including yet another home run by Bryce Harper and a five-hit night for Yunel Escobar on Monday, and Wilson Ramos continuing his hit streak as it is now at 15 games, a new career high for him. Of course, the series ended with a grand slam by Michael Taylor in the ninth inning on Wednesday.
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At the beginning of the season, a lot of people saw this matchup as a playoff preview, especially after all the moves the Padres made this winter. After going 77-85 last season, new GM A.J. Preller went out and made trades, including one involving the Nationals, to acquire a whole new outfield that features Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. So far, Upton is hitting .276 with eight home runs and 24 RBI’s. Myers is hitting .291 with five home runs and 19 RBI’s, but he has a wrist injury at the moment. Meanwhile, Kemp has only hit one home run in 34 games.
Even with all those moves, including the trade of Derek Norris (.295 batting average), the Padres weren’t done. They signed James Shields to help their young rotation. Then, on the night of the regular season, Preller made the ultimate splash and traded for superstar closer Craig Kimbrel along with outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. So far, Kimbrel has ten saves in 11 chances, but has a ERA of 5.93.
Right now, San Diego is 18-17 and they are five games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They do lead all of baseball in quality starts (23) but have a team ERA of 4.22. In addition, their bullpen ERA is at 4.82, which is the third worst in the National League.
That being said, this should be a great series between these two teams. Let’s take a look at the four pitching matchups, starting with tonight’s game between Doug Fister and Tyson Ross, who is the older brother of Nats’ prospect Joe Ross (who is in double-A Harrisburg):
Next: Tonight's Matchup
May 9, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Doug Fister (2-1, 2.87) vs. Tyson Ross (1-3, 3.98) , 10:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Let’s start off by talking about Tyson Ross. The 28-year old right-hander has been with San Diego since 2013 and had a very good season last year, going 13-14 with a 2.81 ERA. However, while Ross has not been roughed up in any of his seven starts, he has not showed very good control.
He has not given up more than four earned runs in any starts and he is sixth in the National League in strikeouts (48), but he has walked more batters (23) than anyone in the NL. Ross has walked three batters or more in six of his seven starts this season. This should help someone like Bryce Harper, who has 30 walks in 35 games. Harper is 2-for-2 with a home run against Ross.
When you talk about Doug Fister, he has had an excellent start to the month of May. In two starts this month, he has a 2.08 ERA after having a 3.28 ERA in April. Last time out, against the Braves, Fister went 6.2 innings, gave up three runs on six hits, and struck out three.
Most important, Fister seems to have his control back as he has not walked a single batter in his last two starts. Plus, he has had 19 combined groundball outs. Playing at a pitcher’s park like PETCO should be perfect for a pitcher that relies on his sinker to get a multitude of groundball outs. The Padre who has the best success against Fister is Wil Middlebrooks. The former Red Sox third baseman is 2-for-5 with a RBI against him.
Advantage: As talented a pitcher as Tyson Ross is, the Nationals have a very good top of the order that knows how to stay patient and wait for their pitch. This is a game where Washington will take advantage of Ross’s tendency to walk hitters. That, along with Fister’s control, will get the series started for the Nats on the right foot.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Apr 20, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Odrisamer Despaigne (40) pitches during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (2-2, 4.20) vs. Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 5.13) – 10:10 PM ET, MASN2
It’s been a rough season for Despaigne. He has made seven appearances, with three of those coming as a starter. However, as a member of the rotation, the 28-year old right hander from Cuba has a 5.38 ERA in three starts. In his last outing against the Diamondbacks on May 7, he went five innings, gave up eight runs on ten hits, struck out one, and walked one.
One of the things Despaigne has done well as a starter is that he can get the groundball outs. In those three starts, he has ten or more groundball outs. He throws mainly four pitches, with an occasional slider. His fastball averages at a little over 90 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs), but he likes to mix in a cutter, curveball, changeup. It will be interesting to see how the Nationals handle Despaigne when you consider that nobody on the team has faced the second year pitcher.
Last time out, against the Braves, Jordan Zimmermann had a tough time against the bottom of the Braves order. The Nats gave him an early 3-0 lead, but he gave up two runs in the second, a run in the third, and two hits to the pitcher.
That being said, you have to give Zimmermann credit as he shut out Atlanta for the final three innings. In six innings, he gave up those three runs on eight hits, struck out two, and walked three. He has given up no more than three runs in six of his seven starts, but the nine walks this season are a little bit of a concern for someone who usually has great control.
The problem for Zimmermann going into this one are two of the key hitters in the Padres lineup have great success against him. Matt Kemp is 6-for-14 with two home runs and seven RBI’s while Justin Upton is 6-for-17 with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: Due to the lack of familiarity for the Nats hitters against Despaigne, you have to think it will take time for them to adjust and figure out his tendencies. That doesn’t bode well for Washington if San Diego can get to Zimmermann early. I like the Padres to take game number two.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
May 11, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (3-3, 1.99) vs. Andrew Cashner (1-6, 3.07) – 8:40 PM ET, MASN2
If you look strictly at Andrew Cashner’s win-loss record, you would think that he is off to a horrible start. Partially, Cashner’s bad start is because San Diego doesn’t give him many runs. He is second in the National League in lowest run support. The 2.29 runs per game scored by San Diego is only higher than Cole Hamels.
However, one of the problems for the 28-year old righty is he gives up a lot of home runs. His eight homers given up are sixth in the NL and he has given up the long ball in each of his last four games. Even with the high home run total, he has 45 strikeouts and has given up two runs or fewer in five of his seven starts.
Last season, Cashner went 5-7 with a 2.55 ERA in 19 starts. Ryan Zimmerman does have a home run against him, but the best hitter against Cashner on the Nats is Denard Span. The center fielder/leadoff hitter is 4-for-13 with a double and three RBI’s.
Last time out, Max Scherzer was given a ton of run support, something he hasn’t seen much of this year. On Monday, the Nats gave him a 10-0 lead before he took the mound in the second inning. It allowed him to settle in and command the strike zone against a D’Backs lineup that scored 20 runs in the final two games of the series.
Scherzer, who has thrown seven innings or more in each of his last five starts, went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out six, and walked one. Scherzer is fifth in the NL in ERA and is tied for third in the NL in strikeouts (55) behind Clayton Kershaw and James Shields.
If the Padres are going to have success against Scherzer, they have to get to him early and look to swing early in the count. Will Venable may see time against Scherzer as San Diego’s fourth outfielder is 4-for-9 with four RBI’s against him. However, the Nats right-hander owns Matt Kemp. Kemp is 0-for-21 with seven strikeouts and one walk.
Advantage: Both of these pitchers have had a rough time getting support from their offenses, so I would expect this to be a close game. Nevertheless, it is very tough to beat Scherzer when he is on his A game. I like the Washington Nationals to win this one as they will keep Cashner’s streak going of giving up the long ball.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
May 12, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy (22) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the third inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg (2-3, 4.73) vs. Ian Kennedy (2-1, 5.03) – 4:10 PM ET, MASN2
After two very good starts in a row for Ian Kennedy, he had a rough start on Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners. In that outing, the 30-year old righty gave up five runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings,. He would walk three batters and struck out two in the loss.
While Kennedy has given up two runs or fewer in three of his five starts, opponents are hitting .295 against him and he has given up 28 hits in 24.1 innings. He has especially struggled against left-handed hitters. Lefties against Kennedy are hitting .322 with four home runs and 12 RBI’s (righties hitting .250). Some of the hitters that have success against Kennedy on the Nationals are Jayson Werth (5-for-14, one home run, one RBI) and Ian Desmond (6-for-16).
As for Strasburg, he heads into this game coming off the worst start of his career in terms of runs allowed. On Tuesday, against the Diamondbacks, Strasburg went 3.1 innings, gave up eight runs (seven earned) on eight hits, struck out three and walked one. The San Diego native did not have much control of his pitches his last time out and it seems with him that if something goes wrong in an inning, he is not able to get out of it.
One thing the Nationals need him to do is to go deeper into games. He has averaged only 90 pitches per game thru seven starts and has gone over 100 pitches twice. At least, Strasburg is healthy, but the Nats need him to do much better than the 12.79 ERA he has in May so far. Justin Upton has a good history against Strasburg as he is 7-for-27 against him with one home run and four RBI’s.
Advantage: This one is going to be the game that has the most combined runs out of the four. Both pitchers are coming in off of shaky outings, but Kennedy has had more of the track record this season in terms of being consistent. Strasburg has yet to show that consistency. Maybe going back to his hometown will help him in this one, but I will go with the Padres to win the game and split the series.