Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Yankees (5/19-5/20)
May 16, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Alex Rodriguez (13) is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a home run in the ninth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. The Yankees won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
After a very successful 5-2 road trip on the West Coast in Arizona and San Diego, the Washington Nationals (22-17) come back home to begin a five game homestand. That stretch will begin tonight when they begin a mini two-game series against the New York Yankees (22-17). This will be the first time the Yankees have played a game in Washington D.C. since 2012. Plus, it should be a great atmosphere when you consider both teams are at or near the top of their respective divisions.
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Of course, the buzz around the Nationals this week will be about Bryce Harper, who won NL Player Of The Week for the second straight week. In his last 11 games, Harper has seven home runs, 22 hits and 22 RBI’s. Thru the first 39 games, he has walked 36 times. The 22-year old has come a long way from the last time he faced the Yankees.
On a non-Harper note, Wilson Ramos, the Nats catcher, comes back home with his hit streak still in tact at a career high 18 games.
On June 17, 2012, Andy Pettitte went up against Harper and dominated him. In that game, a Nationals loss in 14 innings, Harper went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. Now, the Yankees will have a hard time striking him out in these two games.
Most experts did not predict the Yankees to finish at the top of a wide open AL East, but Joe Girardi’s club has been sparked by the hitters at the top of their order. Center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury has a .411 on-base percentage (fourth in the AL) and leads the league in stolen bases. As for left fielder Brett Gardner, he has ten stolen bases and is hitting .303 now that he is in the number two spot instead of New York’s legendary shortstop, Derek Jeter.
The main storyline around the Yankees since their season began has been their designated hitter Alex Rodriguez, who served a season long suspension last year for his involvement with Biogenesis. So far, the 38-year-old has not made any headlines off the field and has exceeded expectations on it. He has ten home runs and a slugging percentage of .563. A-Rod and first baseman Mark Teixeira (11 homers) are both in the top three in AL in home runs behind Nelson Cruz of the Mariners (15).
As for the Yankees starting rotation, they have a 4.15 ERA (seventh in the AL), but are without Masahiro Tanaka, who is rehabbing from a forearm injury. New York has been able to keep the rotation in tact thanks to great pitching from Michael Pineda. The former Mariner is 5-1 with a 3.31 ERA and had a 16 strikeout performance against the Orioles on May 10. However, Pineda won’t be the one pitching in this series. That will be Nathan Eovaldi and Adam Warren.
Washington has been one of the best teams in baseball in the first inning. The Nationals will need to get ahead early in these two games because it’s extremely tough to beat the Yankees bullpen in the final two innings. The combination of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller has yet to give up an earned run this season. As for Miller, the Yankees’ prized offseason acquisition is 13-for-13 in saves and has given up three hits in 17.2 innings to go with 29 strikeouts.
Before we breakdown the two pitching matchups, make sure you check out the podcast I host for Yanks Go Yard. On Sunday night, District On Deck co-editor Pablo Roa and myself went in-depth on this upcoming two-game series.
Next: Tonight's Matchup
May 12, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (30) throws a pitch in the first inning of the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Nathan Eovaldi (3-1, 4.14) vs. Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 4.25) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN and MLB Network
The Nationals will see a familiar foe on Tuesday night when former Marlin Nathan Eovaldi comes to Nats Park. Eovaldi was traded from the Marlins to the Yankees back in December along with first baseman Garrett Jones in exchange for infielder Martin Prado and starter David Phelps.
When you watch Eovaldi, one of the things that stands out about him is the velocity on his fastball. The average velocity on his heater, according to Fangraphs, is 95.8 miles per hour. He has used his slider more this year, but pitching coach Larry Rothschild and Girardi want him to be more confident with his offspeed pitches.
The Yankees have shown more confidence in Eovaldi, who has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts, but teams are hitting .305 against him and he has walked six batters over his last three starts. In seven starts vs. the Nats in his career, Eovaldi is 2-4 with a 4.76 ERA. Keep an eye on Ryan Zimmerman in this game. The Nats first baseman is 3-for-8 with two home runs against him.
As for Gio Gonzalez, he had a rough start last Wednesday in Arizona. After back-to-back wins, Gonzalez gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings of work during a no decision. Gonzalez does have a 3.32 ERA in three starts this month, but he is showing some inconsistency in terms of having two good starts and then a bad one. In fact, Matt Williams came out to the mound in the third inning of his last start and gave him a very stern talking to.
With Doug Fister on the disabled list, the Nats will need the lefty to step his game up a little bit. When he’s on his game, he has the ability to rack up the strikeouts with his fastball and breaking ball.
However, Gonzalez has not pitched well against the Yankees in his career. He is 1-5 with a 6.75 ERA in six starts. Mark Teixiera is 5-for-16 against Gonzalez with one home run, three RBI’s, and four walks.
Advantage: I am expect this game to be high scoring as both pitchers are susceptible to being hit and hit hard by opposing hitters. If this game does come down to the bullpens, you have to give the Yankees the edge because of the dominant duo of Betances and Miller late in games. While Gonzalez has a 1.38 ERA at Nats Park this season, I do think the top of the Yankees order will give him fits. New York wins a close game with a key hit by A-Rod as a pinch hitter late in the game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
May 15, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) pitches during the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Warren (2-2, 4.50) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (3-2, 3.66) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
Jordan Zimmermann gets the start for the Nationals in this game because of the Doug Fister injury. The Nats will not need a fifth starter for a little while because of off days yesterday, this Thursday, and next Thursday. Instead of using A.J. Cole or Tanner Roark, Zimmermann slides into this spot on regular rest.
Let’s start by talking about Adam Warren. The 27-year-old right-hander won the fifth spot in the rotation in spring training after being a key member of the bullpen a season ago. He has had command issues at times, but he is coming into this start Wednesday with some confidence. In his last start against the Rays, he went seven innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out seven batters, and walked one.
The question forward for Warren will be whether or not he stays in the rotation when Ivan Nova and Masahiro Tanaka come back, especially when New York needs help in the bullpen behind Betances and Miller. The key for the Nats to get to Warren is to not let him get in a groove early and to work the count since he has walked at least one batter in six of his seven starts this year.
As for Zimmermann, he has turned his season around after a rough month of April. In three starts this month, he has a ERA of 1.89 and has given up a total of four runs. In five starts during the month of April, his ERA was 4.88. Against San Diego on Friday, Zimmermann showed his great command when he held a good San Diego offense to six hits in six innings to go with six strikeouts and one walk.
This season, Zimmermann has been able to eat innings to help the Nationals bullpen. He has gone at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts. He has one career start against the Yankees. On June 16, 2012, he went six innings, gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits, struck out six, and walked three in a no-decision.
In his career against Zimmermann, right fielder Carlos Beltran is 4-for-15 with two doubles and a RBI. The only two Yankees with homers against him are Garrett Jones and their new shortstop, Didi Gregorius.
Advantage: This matchup is lopsided on paper and I expect that to be the same when the two teams take the field Wednesday. Zimmermann is starting to return to his 2014 form and the Nats offense has the ability to get to Warren early in this game or the Yankees middle relief. Nationals win in a blowout.