Washington Nationals Opinions: Who Should Replace Doug Fister in the Rotation?
Apr 27, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) reacts after giving up a run against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
After the latest implosion in a 2015 season already marred by inconsistency and poor performance, Doug Fister, one of the Nationals best pitchers from last year, was placed on the 15-day disabled list with forearm tightness last Friday. He gave up seven runs during his start last Thursday against the Padres, getting yanked after just two innings.
Right now, it’s not entirely certain what exactly is bothering the 31 year old right hander. He’s looked off for most of the season, lacked velocity on his pitches, and being unable to consistently keep his sinker down in the zone. Over the course of his first seven starts, Fister has pitched to a 4.31 ERA and a WHIP of 1.412, a far cry from his 2014 numbers of 2.41 and 1.079 respectively.
The question that the Washington Nationals must answer is who will fill in for Fister while he recovers, and who is the best fit to step into the rotation should he miss extended time? The Nationals, with all of their pitching talent, certainly don’t have a dearth of possible candidates, but there are a couple of guys who are more likely to get the nod than others.
The first option is A.J. Cole. The young start of the Nationals Minor League systems was called up to replace Fister on the 40-man roster, and he’s already seen a little action out of the bullpen. While he struggled in his first start, he’s someone who figures big into the Nats long-term plans, so getting him any playing time at the big league level is a plus.
There’s also Tanner Roark. He’s been relegated to the bullpen for 2015, but he did well in 2014 as a starter, and could give the Nats peace of mind should Fister be out longer than 15 days.
So, who is the best option to take Fister’s spot, starting Tuesday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field? We’ll take a look at the pros and cons of each option before naming the best choice.
May 4, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond (20) and Washington Nationals relief pitcher Tanner Roark (57) celebrate after the game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Tanner Roark: Pros
At first glance, Tanner Roark seems like the most logical choice to take the spot of Fister. After all, just last year, in his first season as a starter, Roark acquitted himself nicely, going 15-10 with an ERA of 2.85 and a FIP of 3.47. So far in 2015, he’s been decent – though far from perfect – in a relief role. Roark has the requisite experience at the Major League level, and he’s proven his mettle as a guy who can give you solid production every five days as part of the rotation.
That experience cannot be discounted, either. A.J. Cole, the Nationals young starter and the other name to pop up as a potential replacement for Fister, got the first start of his career in a spot start back on April 28. To call that start a disaster would be understating how poorly he performed. Cole ended up surrendering nine runs (four earned) over just two innings. He imploded under the pressure, throwing pitches to the backstop and showing a complete lack of command.
While the Nationals eventually won that game and have since gone a long way toward righting the ship after an inauspicious start to the season, the last thing they need is having an inexperienced starter on the mound. Doing so would mean too much pressure on the other four starters and, more importantly, it would tax a bullpen that’s already stretched thin from the burden it’s been asked to bear.
The Nationals must also think about the future of Roark. He’s under team control until he’s 33 (he’s 28 now), and giving him the role of “interim starter” could serve to build up goodwill with the young pitcher. After all, A.J. Cole seems almost certain to have a spot waiting for him in the Nationals future. Roark, on the other hand, has a future that’s much less clear. Letting him take a few spot starts here could go a long way to making sure Roark knows he’s truly valued by the club.
Next: Case Against Tanner Roark
Oct 4, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Tanner Roark (57) pitches in the 17th inning against the San Francisco Giants in game two of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
Tanner Roark: Cons
Moving Roark back to the rotation doesn’t come without its pitfalls, though. For one thing, there’s a strong chance that having Tanner fill in could result in him quickly joining Fister on the disabled list for an extended period of time. It’s already been mentioned that Williams has been unwilling to push Roark into spot starts due to the fact that he isn’t stretched out enough. If that’s the case, flipping him back and forth from reliever to starter and back again would do far more harm than good.
There’s also the state of the bullpen that has to be examined here. While it’s true that using A.J. Cole as the temporary starter could tax the bullpen if he struggles, moving Roark out of his current role could do even more damage. The bullpen has had enough trouble with the lack of defined roles since the Nationals lost Casey Janssen. The last thing they need to do is to rip one of the sturdier pieces out from under the wobbling table that’s been Washington’s late-inning pitching.
It’s been more than obvious that the Nats have struggled to eat up all of the innings that Soriano, Tyler Clippard, and Ross Detwiler ate up from 2014. Even when Casey Janssen joins the team and is able to perform the role he was acquired to fill, the Nationals are still thin in the bullpen. Removing one of the few productive pieces of that puzzle would only undo what the Nats have managed to build up over the course of the early part of the season, as little as it may be.
Next: Case For A.J. Cole
Apr 28, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher A.J. Cole pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
A.J. Cole: Pros
The Nationals have made very little secret about their plans for A.J. Cole. It’s been obvious to anyone who follows the team that they consider him an enormous asset and one of the key building blocks to the future of their fantastic pitching rotation. He’s widely considered to be one of the best prospects not only in the Nationals farm system, but across the entire Minor Leagues.
This, of course, is exactly the reason that using Cole to fill in for Doug Fister, should he miss extended time, makes so much sense. If he’s expected to contribute as a regular starter in the (likely very) near future, it behooves the Nationals to get Cole as much starting experience in the Majors as they can before they tag him to be a pitcher making thirty starts a season. While getting time as an everyday player in the Minors is nice, there’s no substitute for real time in the big league. Plus, having him pitch out of the bullpen isn’t the same as making big league starts.
Obviously, the one criticism that most (including myself) could make was Cole’s catastrophic first start. While it’s true that game was a disaster, it was also just one star. It’s reasonable to assume that a lot of Cole’s control issues stemmed from nerves more than anything else. He’s likely to be much more under control in any starts he might be given.
Plus, the Nats can’t make a decision like this based solely off of the results of one start.
Next: Case Against A.J. Cole
Mar 12, 2015; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher A.J. Cole (69) throws against the New York Mets during the game at Tradition Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
A.J. Cole: Cons
There are several risks that come with starting A.J. Cole, too. After all, he’s only 23 years old, and he has next to zero experience in the big leagues. Excluding Doug Fister, the Nationals already have two starting pitchers in Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg that have struggled this season. Why on earth would they want to add Cole to that mix? Sure, Cole could be fine and his one start could be an aberration, but it’s just as likely that he’s erratic from game-to-game. That’s not what the Nationals need. The Nats need stability and that’s something Cole can’t offer.
If you really want to get Cole some experience in the Major Leagues, the best option for him right now is to do what he did last Friday and pitch a few innings out of the bullpen. The Nationals could use more arms in relief, and putting Cole there offers the best of both worlds: he gets the big league experience, and the Nationals aren’t leveraging every fifth game like they would by making him a starter.
I understand that Cole has been solid in his time with Syracuse over his five starts in spite of having a losing record, but minor league numbers don’t always translate quickly. Cole could manage to find his Major League legs, but how long would that take? Even if Fister is out for an extended amount of time (which seems unlikely), the Nats don’t have time for Cole to figure things out. They need someone who already knows what they’re doing on the mound, and – nothing against Cole – he just doesn’t have that yet.
Next: Who Should Be The 5th Starter?
Apr 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark (57) throws against the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth at Nationals Park. The St. Louis Cardinals won 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Conclusion
The Nationals should have Casey Janssen back soon, which should give the team stability in the eighth and ninth innings for the first time this year. With Aaron Barrett and Matt Grace available to work the seventh inning in most games, Cole could slide into Roark’s spot as the long reliever.
Right now, it just makes the most sense to use Tanner Roark in Doug Fister’s spot in the rotation if they need someone to make a spot start. Roark already has all the experience the Nationals could want. He’s been through the ordeal of facing Major League hitters regularly and he’s proven that he can be a more-than-serviceable starter if needed. Plus, giving Roark the job also lets him know that he’s a valued member of the team and not just a piece that can be cast into the bullpen and forgotten.
This certainly isn’t a knock against A.J. Cole by any means. He’s going to be an enormous part of the Nationals plans going forward, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding guys like Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister heading into the offseason. But for right now, the best option for Cole is to get a little bit of experience in the bullpen until Fister and Janssen are able to rejoin the team, then return to triple-A Syracuse to get more playing time as a starter there before (hopefully) making his debut as a regular in 2016.
So, while it may require that the Nationals stretch out Tanner Roark to get him ready to start, he’s clearly the best option to fill in for Doug Fister right now.