Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals at Reds (5/29-5/31)

May 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) walks off the field after being removed from the game against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Stephen Strasburg (3-5, 6.50 ERA) vs. Anthony DeScalfani (2-4, 3.46 ERA), 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2 and WUSA9

The Nationals open the series tonight against the Reds with Stephen Strasburg facing off against Anthony DeSclafani. This is Strasburg’s tenth start and, needless to say, he has struggled a bit this year.

His ERA is near the top for worst in the majors for starting pitchers at 6.50 and he has only reached the seventh inning one time this year. Last outing, Stras got knocked around a bit against the Phillies, only going 3.2 innings and giving up six runs on seven hits and this wasn’t his worst start of the year.

There is much speculation about what is wrong with Strasburg. I put forth here that I think it is a combination of recovering from an ankle injury that affects his mechanics in high-leverage situations and terrible luck with an absurdly high BABIP at .390.

Whatever is wrong with Strasburg, the Reds lineup could be a good chance for him to get right. Stras has fared well against Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto lifetime, striking out Phillips twice over ten at-bats and Votto three times in six at-bats. Keeping Billy Hamilton off the bases is also a priority and, while Stras has struggled with a lot this year, walking hitters has not been much of an issue so far for him.

The Reds start Anthony DeSclafani, who is coming off a great start against Cleveland on May 23,  where he went seven innings and gave up only one run on three hits. He did not get rewarded with the win as his team could only put up one run of support, but DeSclafani has had a good year so far.

DeScalfani may struggle a bit against the Nats lineup, more specifically Bryce Harper, Danny Espinosa, and Denard Span. This is because of his high walk rate at 10.5% and his massive platoon splits against lefties. DeScalfani’s slash against lefties is .276/.384/.457 as compared to his righty slash at .141/.187/.212. The Nats will look to put pressure on DeScalfani by drawing a lot of walks and I have a feeling Bryce is going to have a big day. Look for Nats manager Matt Williams to take advantage of this split.

Advantage: Toss-up

It is hard for me to call this game because Strasburg should be the better pitcher. He is the better pitcher, but his performances this year do not match his talent. DeScalfani is a young pitcher that seems like a solid, middle-of-the-rotation type guy. I think this game will come down to the bullpen for the Nationals, as Strasburg seems to exit games early this season. That being said, Bryce Harper’s ability to exploit his platoon advantage against DeScalfan will be critical tonight.

May 24, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 4.53 ERA) vs. Raisel Iglesias (1-1, 4.26 ERA) – 4:10 PM ET, MASN2

For the second of a three-game set, the Nats trot out Gio Gonzalez to face Raisel Iglesias. Gio has been a bit inconstant this year and has given up a few more runs than he is used to as evident by his 4.53 ERA.

He recovered nicely his last outing against the Phillies, going 6.1 innings and giving up one run on seven hits. Gio seems to be suffering the same bad luck this year as Stras as his BABIP is almost as high at .385. His contact rate is up a tick this year from 76.8% to 80.3%, but his FIP, at 2.92, and high BABIP show he is a better pitcher than his ERA might reflect.

Gio went seven and gave up one run in his only appearance against the Reds last year (July 26), but the Nats lost that game, 1-0. He has fared well against Brandon Phillips,  giving up just one hit in eight at-bats.

The Reds will start the rookie from Cuba, Raisel Iglesias. Iglesias started the year in Triple-A and quickly got the call up to fill some holes in the Reds’ bullpen and starting rotation. Iglesias has three starts on the year and was very impressive against the Braves on May 13, giving up one run on two hits in eight inning of work. He sports a low 90’s fastball; slider, change and curve all coming in the low 80s. He has a plus fastball and, when his slider is on, he can be very effective.

Obviously, the Nationals have not faced Iglesias, so it is difficult to tell how well the rookie will match up against the Nats lineup. I think it might take the Nats a few times through the order to pick up the rotation and the release point for Iglesias, but the talent level will most likely overwhelm Iglesias before the night is over.

Advantage: Gio Gonzlez

Gio is the obvious choice over the rookie Iglesias and he should shine against this terrible Reds’ lineup. However, Gio has struggled a bit the second and third time through the order. He seems to hit the fourth inning and become unable to find the plate. Gio needs to avoid a middle inning melt down like his Yankees outing if he wants to pick up his fifth win of the year.

The Nats should be fine against Iglesias, but you never know when a talented rookie could have a big night and go eight innings and give up only two hits. I think the Nats will have an easy go of this one and go into the series finale with a good chance to win their tenth series in a row.

Next: Sunday's Matchup

May 25, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Tanner Roark (57) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

Tanner Roark (1-1, 2.49 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (3-4, 3.03 ERA) – 1:10 PM ET, MASN2

To wrap up the weekend, the Nationals start Tanner Roark against Johnny Cueto for the Reds. After winning 15 games last year, Roark was the odd man out when the Nationals signed Max Scherzer and Roark started the year in the bullpen. He still doesn’t have a defined role, but I think that can be a good thing if you have the right guy.

Roark has closed a game, done some eighth inning work, worked as the long man, and started last week against the Cubs. His start against the Cubs was solid, he went five innings and gave up one run on three hits. I don’t think we can expect much more than five innings out of Roark as he is still stretching his arm out, but I think Nats’fans have come to expect five gritty, tough innings and Roark will never let the game get away from him

Last year, Tanner faced the Reds for a total of 13 innings and gave up two runs on nine hits (1-1, 1.38 ERA). I expect Tanner to do the same against this Reds lineup and go at least five and give up no more than two runs.

The Reds will start Johnny Cueto, who missed his last scheduled start due to elbow soreness. I am not sure how long Cueto has been dealing with that injury, but his last four starts in the month of May have not been good. He is 1-2 in May with a 4.45 ERA after a hot start in April where he went 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA.

Last year, Cueto did not fare well against the Nationals. Over 12.1 innings pitched, Cueto gave up ten hits and six earned runs. He did manage to strikeout 15 over those 12.1 innings, but his strikeout rate is down a bit this year due to his fastball losing a bit of velocity. This makes his off-speed pitches, most notably his changeup, less effective strikeout weapons.

Out of the players in the Nationals lineup, Denard Span has had the most success against Cueto, batting .500 in ten at-bats.

Advantage: Tanner Roark

Johnny Cueto is the more established pitcher and the more established choice, but coming off an injury and a poor showing in May, I can’t go with Cueto in this game. In addition, I love Roark’s attitude when he is on the mound and his attitude toward his role on this club. He is just happy to help wherever he can and will do whatever is asked of him. Every time he is called upon to pitch, it is going to be a solid performance and I just don’t know what to expect from Cueto coming off an injury and a down month. I have to ride the hot hand and Tanner Roark is that hot hand. Look for the Nats to close out the series with a win on five solid innings from Tanner Roark.

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