Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Blue Jays (6/1-6/3)
May 31, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run in the seventh inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Twins won 6-5. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
After being swept by the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend and posting a 2-4 road trip in Chicago and Cincy, the Washington Nationals (28-22) are back at Nats Park to begin a seven game homestand. It starts tonight when the Nats begin a three game series against the Toronto Blue Jays (23-29).
Despite being swept by the Reds, the Nationals erased their 7-13 mark in the first 20 games by going 18-9 in the month of May. Plus, Washington has a 14-7 record at home this season. Their 14 wins are the fifth most of any team in the National League. While there are many concerns about the past weekend, including the bullpen struggles and the latest injury to Stephen Strasburg, the Nats will hope to bounce back against a team going thru their own struggles.
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Even though Toronto is six games under .500, they are still in the race of what has been a mediocre AL East. Coming into the night, they are 3.5 games behind the Yankees and the Rays. John Gibbons’ club went 12-17 in the month of May and they have lost five of their last nine. That being said, one of Toronto’s key offseason acquisitions is on fire right now.
Toronto’s offense has scored the most runs, the second highest slugging percentage, and hit the fourth most home runs in baseball. One of the main reasons why is third baseman Josh Donaldson. Donaldson, who was acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s for a package that included Brett Lawrie, is hitting .312 with 15 home runs and 39 RBI’s on the season. Plus, he has hit six home runs and driven in 11 runs in the last six games.
Edwin Encarnacion has had a very good season as well, hitting 12 home runs. However, Encarnacion is the team’s designated hitter, so you won’t see him that much in this series. While Jose Bautista only has seven home runs, he does lead the team with a .380 on-base percentage. Other players to watch on Toronto’s offense include catcher Russell Martin (.277, 7 HR, 24 RBI’s) and shortstop Jose Reyes (.281, 0 HR, 10 RBI’s, 4 SB). Reyes is a .283 career hitter against the Nats with six homers and 45 RBI’s from his time with the Mets.
The problem for the Blue Jays has been the starting rotation. It began this spring with Marcus Stroman, one of their best young pitchers, tearing his ACL. As a team, Toronto’s ERA is 4.59, which is the third worst in baseball. The starters (4.93) have the second worst ERA in the AL, ahead of only the Boston Red Sox. Their opening day starter, Drew Hutchison, is 4-1, but has a very high ERA (5.26).
Finally, let’s take a look at Toronto’s bullpen. Currently, their closer is the lefty Brett Cecil has two saves, which is two behind Miguel Castro, but the 21-year old is in the minor leagues. Toronto’s ‘pen has six wins, which is tied for the third lowest in the AL and has collectively blown nine saves. The key guy in their bullpen is righty Roberto Osuna. The 20-year-old has a 1.75 ERA in 22 appearances this year. In May, opponents hit just .156 against him.
With all of that being said, let’s look at the three pitching matchups in this series, starting with tonight’s game:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
May 26, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
R.A. Dickey (2-5, 5.77) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (4-2, 3.26) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
After facing a couple of rookies over the weekend in Cincy, the Nationals offense now has to go up against a tricky knuckleballer in R.A. Dickey. The 40-year old righty, who has been with Toronto for the last two seasons, has to be happy that the month of May is over.
In five starts during the month of May, he went 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA, giving up 23 runs in 33 total innings. After a complete game against the Angels on May 21 (four earned runs on five hits), he gave up five runs on eight hits in a no-decision against the White Sox on May 26.
One of the main problems for Dickey this season has been his control. He has 23 walks this season, which is in the top ten in the American League. Dickey is 4-6 against the Nationals with a 3.73 ERA in 13 career starts. He hasn’t faced the Nats since he was the Mets in 2012 (2-2, 3.25 ERA)
Some hitters to watch in tonight’s game are Wilson Ramos and Ryan Zimmermann. Ramos is an amazing 9-for-13 against Dickey with a home run and three RBi’s. As for Zimmerman, he is 9-for-29 with a home run and two RBI’s.
Jordan Zimmermann will be going up against a tough lineup, but he seems to be back to form. In his last start against the Cubs, he went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five and walked three. He has now put up five quality starts in a row and he had a 1.91 ERA in five starts in May (4.13 in April).
That being said, there are some concerns about the Nats 29-year-old right-hander. For one, he has walked eight hitters in his last four starts, including three batters in his last start in Chicago. In addition, he has not got off to good starts in games. He has given up six first inning runs this season. To put that in comparison, he gave up seven first inning runs all of last year.
The hitter to watch in this Blue Jays lineup is shortstop Jose Reyes. He is 8-for-22 with a double and two walks. Zimmermann’s only start against Toronto came in 2009 when he gave up one run on five hits in 5.2 innings.
Advantage: With the way the Nationals offense has been struggling, Dickey could be the pitcher that helps them get back on track. If he can’t locate that knuckleball, there could be a couple pitches up in the zone that the Nats can take advantage of. Plus, despite Zimmermann’s first inning struggles, he has been able to right the ship and put together some impressive outings. I would expect Zimmermann to have another seven inning, three-run performance since the team desperately needs one. Washington gets the win in the opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
May 22, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Marco Estrada (1-3, 3.89) vs. Max Scherzer (6-3, 1.51), 7:05 PM , MASN
Estrada is a pitcher that the Blue Jays acquired in a trade from the Milwaukee Brewers back in November in exchange for first baseman Adam Lind. Due to Toronto’s injuries in the rotation along with Daniel Norris going back to triple-A, the 31-year-old right-hander has had to slide into the rotation after starting the year in the bullpen.
While Estrada has pitched seven innings in each of his last two starts, he has given up his share of runs. He has allowed 14 runs in his last five starts and has walked nine batters in his last four.
He is a four-pitch pitcher (fastball, changeup, curveball, and cutter), but he mainly uses his fastball and changeup. His fastball, according to Fangraphs, averages 89 miles per hour. He does allow teams to get the ball in the air, as evident by the 19 fly ball outs he had in his last start against the White Sox.
Nobody on the Nationals has more than 11 at-bats against Estrada, but Ryan Zimmerman is 2-for-7 with a home run and four RBI’s.
As for Max Scherzer, he has everything the Nationals could have asked for and then some as the ace of this rotation. In his last start on May 28 against the Cubs, Scherzer gave up no runs on five hits and strike out 13 batters over the course of seven innings. He has gone at least seven innings in eight straight starts and has ten or more strikeouts in four of his last six.
Against the Blue Jays in his career, Scherzer is 4-0 with a 1.68 ERA in seven starts. Last season, he went eight innings and gave up one run on four hits and struck out 11 batters in a win vs. Toronto on August 9. He got a no-decision in that outing.
Both Bautista and Encarnacion have home runs against Scherzer, but Bautista has excellent numbers against the right-hander. He is 9-for-17 lifetime with four doubles, a home run, and three RBI’s.
Advantage: While Estrada might do enough to keep the Blue Jays in this game, Scherzer is on a roll right now. He has all of his pitches work and can even get his fastball up to 98 miles per hour during games. In his last four starts, he has given up a grand total of two runs. It’s tough to pick against the Nationals ace when he’s on such a roll right now.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
May 29, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Mark Buehrle (65) pitches in the first inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Mark Buehrle (6-4, 4.97) vs. TBA – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
Right out of the gate, the Nationals have not yet named a starter for Wednesday’s game. This spot would normally go to Stephen Strasburg, but he is on the disabled list with a neck injury. Right now, it seems likely that Taylor Jordan ( would take Strasburg’s spot in the rotation, but that remains to be seen.
The one certainty in this game is 36-year-old lefty Mark Buehrle will get the start here for Toronto. Despite the high ERA, Buehrle has six wins, which is tied for third in the American League and he has won three of his last five starts.
He started May off poorly when he gave up eight runs against the Cleveland Indians on May 1, but he has not given up more than four runs in a start in his last five. Another positive on the veteran is that he is giving Toronto length in games. In his last three outings, he has a complete game and has thrown 24.1 combined innings.
Buehrle is 2-0 with a 4.64 ERA in five starts against the Nats, but hasn’t faced them since 2012, when he was on the Marlins. Denard Span, who is out of tonight’s game due to a sore right knee, is hitting .364 against Buehrle with two home runs and five RBI’s. The other home run by a Nats hitter against Buehrle is Bryce Harper (1-for-8).
As for Jordan, if he does get the start here, I do like how he finished his outing against the Reds on May 29. In relief of Strasburg, he went 4.2 innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out two, and walked one. He got his fastball up to 93-94 miles per hour. Cincy did hit the ball hard against him, but most of those swings went for loud outs (13 fly ball outs)
Advantage: If it’s Buehrle vs. Jordan, you have to give the edge to Buehrle based on veteran experience and that he is avoiding the crooked inning in his last few starts. While most of the Blue Jays haven’t faced Jordan in their respective careers, there is one player who has. Russell Martin is 3-for-4 against him. I expect Jordan to handle himself well, but the Blue Jays should avoid the sweep in this one.