Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Cubs (6/4-6/7)
May 26, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (17) hits a home run against the Washington Nationals during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
This week, the Washington Nationals did not begin their seven game homestand on the right note. After Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen combined to shut out the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 1 of a doubleheader on Tuesday, Max Scherzer gave up two home runs to Kevin Pillar in Game 2, which led to a 7-3 Blue Jays win.
Last night, Taylor Jordan gave up four runs in the first inning in a 8-0 loss to Toronto, but that is not the main issue right now for Matt Williams’s squad. In their last four games, the Nats have scored a grand total of seven runs. This includes being shut out by Mark Buehrle, who threw a complete game against them. It remains to be seen if the Nationals might get second baseman Anthony Rendon back this weekend. Rendon has been in Harrisburg on a rehab assignment as he tries to heal from his oblique injury.
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The Nats will look to get back on track offensively this weekend against the Chicago Cubs in a four game series. These two teams met back on May 25-27 at Wrigley Field, a series in which the Nationals took two out of three games. Since that series, the Cubs have lost three of their five games and they are coming off losing two out of three against the Miami Marlins. Chicago has been struggling as well with their bats as they have scored only eight runs in their last four.
When you talk about these two teams, the conversation begins with two childhood friends: Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant. Both young stars had two home runs in the last series, but neither has hit a home run since.
Two hitters I want to talk about on the Cubs are first baseman Anthony Rizzo and second baseman Adidison Russell. Rizzo (.317, 9 HR, 31 RBI’s) is currently on a eight-game hit streak and has at least one double in each of his last three games. As for Russell, who Joe Maddon uses out of the number nine spot, he went 4-for-11 against the Nats, including the walk-off double against Matt Grace in game two of that series.
Right now, the Cubs (27-24) are in third place in the NL Central and seven games back of the St. Louis Cardinals. One of the main reasons for that is their bullpen. Their ‘pen has lost ten games (5th most in the NL), has blown eight saves, and has a 3.96 ERA (Nationals ‘pen has a 3.65 ERA)
Which team will break out of their offensive slump this week? We will find out. Let’s take a look at the four pitching matchups that will take place at Nats Park:
Next: Tonight's Game
May 30, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez throws against the Cincinnati Reds in the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Jake Arrieta (4-4, 3.18) vs. Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 4.73), 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Arrieta is one of two pitchers that the Nationals will see this weekend that they did not see at Wrigley Field last week. In his last start against the Kansas City Royals, the 29-year-old right-hander gave up four runs on eight hits over seven innings. He struck out five batters, walked none, and gave up three home runs in a no-decision. Keep in mind that Arrieta had only given up three home runs in his nine previous outings.
During the month of May, Arrieta went 1-3 with a 3.99 ERA in six starts. Last month, his opponents’ batting average went up from .184 in April to .271. He has given up three runs or more in four of his last six starts. Even though his ERA is a bit high, his FIP is 2.90, which is seventh in the National League.
Against the Nats, the former Oriole is 0-1 in six starts against them with a 5.81 ERA, but he has a 1.38 ERA in two starts at Nats Park in his career (2012 and 2014). A hitter to watch in this game is Yunel Escobar. The third baseman is 7-for-18 against Arrieta with a home run.
As for Gio Gonzalez, he was going well against the Reds in his last start on May 30. However, at the plate, he was hit two times by Cincinnati’s starter, Raisel Iglesias. That affected him in the sixth inning, when he have up three runs. In that outing, the lefty went 5.1 innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out six batters, and walked two.
In his last four starts, Gonzalez has given up 16 earned runs and four runs or more in three of those outings. In his start against the Reds, he only had six groundball outs, which was the lowest total of the season. With Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister on the disabled list, the Nats need Gonzalez to go at least six innings everytime out. So far, he’s done that in six of his ten outings.
Gonzalez’s record against the Cubs in his career is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA in six starts. Last season, in two starts against Chicago, he did not give up an earned run in 15 innings. While Anthony Rizzo is 0-for-11 against Gonzalez with four strikeouts, Dexter Fowler, the Cubs’ center fielder, is 5-for-11 with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: This game should be close because Arrieta has been much more hittable in his last six starts. The key for him is going to be keep the Nationals offense from hitting the ball out of the park. This is a one or two-run game, but I am going with the Nats in this one based on Gio’s track record against Chicago and that he has a 3.33 ERA in four home starts this season (5.71 ERA away from Nats Park).
Next: Tomorrow's Game
May 25, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Tanner Roark (57) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Tsuyoshi Wada (0-0, 2.30) vs. Tanner Roark (1-2, 2.59) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
These two pitchers will face off against each other for the second time this season. Back on Memorial Day, Wada and Roark faced off, with Roark being the victor in the Nats 2-1 win.
While Wada has pitched well in his first three starts this season, Chicago has not given up much run support (six runs). The Cubs are 2-1 in his three outings, but Wada does not go deep into games. The furthest he has gone into an outing this year is 5.2 innings against the Royals in his last outing on May 31.
In that start against the Nats on May 25, Wada went 5.1 innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out six batters, and walked two. After Denard Span hit a leadoff home run against him in the first, Wada was able to settle into a groove and keep the rest of Washington’s offense off the board.
Roark fared well in that start as well as him and Wada put up good outings and got great defense behind them. Like Wada, Roark gave up a solo home run in the first inning to Kris Bryant, but he held Chicago to three total hits in five innings. He struck out three batters and walked one in his first win of the season.
Last time out, against the Reds, Roark was hurt by the long ball. He only gave up two runs on four hits over six innings, but those runs came via solo shots by Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips. The good thing to take away from Roark’s no-decision is that his pitch count went from 66 to 92. Now, you might see Roark throw 100 pitches in this start and get back the solid starter he was a season ago.
Even with that good outing on Memorial Day, Roark is 2-2 with a 5.03 ERA in four games. The best hitter on the Cubs against Roark is Chris Coghlan, who is 5-for-11 against them.
Advantage: This is another close game as I think both pitchers are going to keep their respective teams in the game. This one could come down to the bullpens, like it did on Memorial Day. If that is the case, as bad as the Nats bullpen is right now, I still will take Washington and Drew Storen to take game two.
Next: Saturday's Game
Jun 1, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jason Hammel (39) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jason Hammel (4-2, 2.82) vs. TBA – 12:05 PM ET, MASN
As of right now, the Washington Nationals do not have a starter listed for Saturday afternoon because they had to move Jordan Zimmermann up to Tuesday due to the rainout from Monday. However, the starter for the Cubs is known and he is coming off a great outing.
Jason Hammel, who the Cubs re-signed this offseason after trading him to Oakland last July, is coming off a great start on June 1. In that game against the Miami Marlins, he went 6.2 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out 11 and did not walk a batter. While Hammel only won one game in May, his ERA was 2.57 in five starts and opponents hit only .187 against them.
The one thing Nationals have to know when they go up against Hammel is that he is going to pound the strike zone. In ten starts, the 32-year-old right-hander has seven walks and has walked one batter or fewer in his last four. As far as earned runs go, he has only given up more than four runs in a game twice.
Hammel has been dominant against Washington in his career. In ten starts against them, he is 8-0 with a 3.11 ERA. Last year, he was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA against the Nats. While Ryan Zimmerman is a .355 hitter against Hammel with a home run, Bryce Harper is 0-for-10 with five strikeouts.
Advantage: It will be interesting to see if Williams elects to use Zimmermann on short rest for this start after throwing 105 pitches, but I doubt that will be the case. If the Nats have to use another starter from the minor leagues or a long man, Hammel has the edge on paper and has been pitching well of late. The Cubs get the win on Saturday afternoon.
Next: Sunday's Game
Jun 2, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws to the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning in game one of a double header at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Hendricks (1-2, 3.99) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (5-2, 2.88), 4:05 PM ET, MASN2
These two pitchers faced off against each other back on May 26 in the second game of the three-game series. Both pitchers had good outings in that contest, but they each got no-decisions in the 3-2 walk-off win by the Cubs.
Let’s start with Hendricks. The Nats saw him for the first time in that game and were not able to figure out his changeup and sinker that he threw out of the zone. In seven innings, the 25-year-old right-hander gave up one run on four hits, struck out four batters, and walked two. The only run that Hendricks gave up was the solo home run by Bryce Harper in the seventh inning.
In his last start against the Marlins on June 2, Hendricks went six innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out seven, and walked two in the loss. While he has been very good at time, Hendricks has given up four runs or more in a start four times this season. In the month of May, he was 1-0 with a 2.81 ERA in five starts.
As for Jordan Zimmermann, he continued his quality start streak in Game 1 of the doubleheader against Toronto. Against one of the best offenses in baseball, he gave up no runs on six hits, struck out four batters and walked one over eight innings. With that dominant outing, Zimmermann has had a quality start in each of his last eight outings.
Against the Cubs, he gave up a Dexter Fowler home run to lead off the game, which has been the theme this season in terms of first inning struggles for the right-hander. However, even though the Cubs had chances to score, they were 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position until the Russell double in the ninth.
In that outing, Zimmermann went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five, and walked three on a season high 113 pitches. The key in this start is going to be can Zimmermann avoid the walks against a tough Cubs lineup, despite their recent struggles. In the month of May, the 29-year-old was 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA in five starts.
The player to watch on Chicago for the final game of this series is Miguel Montero. The Cubs catcher is 7-for-19 with three doubles, two home runs, and two RBI’s against him.
Advantage: As good as Hendricks was in his last start, Zimmermann has been one of the best starters in baseball over the last month or so. I expect this game to be close between these two just like the last series had three very close games. That being said, I like Zimmermann to win the series finale and the Nats to take three out of four in a series where they avoid Cubs’ ace Jon Lester.