Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nationals at Brewers (6/11-6/14)
Jun 8, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Ryan Braun (8) reacts at second base after hitting a double against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Down 4-2 in the eighth inning, the Washington Nationals were four outs away from being swept by the Yankees and losing ten of their last 12 games. Then, Michael Taylor came up in the clutch with a two-run homer to right against Jacob Lindgren to tie the game. The Nats would rally back to win 5-4 in 11 innings and salvage a split of the two-game series and take three of four from the New York Yankees in the season series.
With the win yesterday afternoon and the Mets loss to the Giants, the Nationals will enter tonight’s game with a ½ game lead in the NL East. However, at 31-28, they have not been playing with as much consistency as fans would like.
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At first glance, this upcoming series against the Milwaukee Brewers (22-38) seems like one the Nats should handle with ease. As of late, however, the Brewers have been played well against some good teams.
They have won their last two series against the Minnesota Twins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. In the month of June, Milwaukee has the best ERA in the National League (2.22). In nine games, they have given up five runs or more twice. It is a great sign for a team that has the worst record in baseball and has already made a managerial change this year.
Last month, general manager Doug Melvin made the decision to fire manager Ron Roenicke and hire Craig Counsell, Matt Williams’ teammate in Arizona, to be the new manager. On offense, this is a team that has the worst batting average and on-base percentage as a team in baseball.
When you look at some of their key players, left fielder Ryan Braun is hitting .261 with 13 home runs and 40 RBI’s. Braun leads the team in homers, four ahead of one of their new acquisitions from this offseason, first baseman Adam Lind. Lind, who was acquired via trade from Toronto, is hitting .279 with nine home runs, 31 RBI’s, and a team high 58 hits.
With the Brewers in sell mode at the trade deadline, it will be interesting whether or not they decide to trade key pieces such as third baseman Aramis Ramirez (seven home runs), center fielder Carlos Gomez (.276, five home runs), and shortstop Jean Segura (.281 average). In the month of June, the 25-year-old is hitting .313.
Before we talk about the starters in this series, let’s take a look at the bullpen. The Brewers’ pen as a whole has a 3.36 ERA, which is sixth in the National League. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has 12 saves in 16 chances, but one name to keep an eye on is Michael Blazek. The 26-year-old right-hander has appeared in 24 games and has a 1.15 ERA. In fact, he has only given up four earned runs the entire season.
With that being said, let’s take a look at the four pitching matchups this weekend at Miller Park:
May 4, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Tanner Roark (57) throws to the Miami Marlins during the ninth inning at Nationals Park. The Washington Nationals won 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Tanner Roark (2-2, 3.16) vs. Matt Garza (4-7, 5.09), 8:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2
Since Tanner Roark has moved back into the rotation, he has been able to keep the Nationals in the game in all of his three starts. Last time out, against the Chicago Cubs on June 5, the velocity was up on his fastball up to 96 miles per hour. He went 5.2 innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked none.
While Roark showed great control in his last outing, he has had a tendency to give up the long ball. He has given up six home runs in his three starts this season, including three against the Cubs. While Milwaukee doesn’t have as much firepower on offense as most teams, it is a problem by Roark that has to be corrected.
Another issue that you see with Roark is that when he gets to 90 pitches, he starts to tire out. With more starts in the rotation, that issue should be corrected. Williams may have stretched Roark too far against the Cubs, but he was able to throw 97 pitches. Roark will eventually be at 100 pitches in his next couple starts in the rotation.
Last season, the 28-year-old right-hander made one start against the Brewers (July 19). In that outing, he went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five and walked one in an 8-3 win by the Nats. No Brewer has seen Roark more than three times, but Carlos Gomez is 2-for-3 against him.
As for Garza, he is coming off one of his best outings of the season against the Twins. On June 6, the 31-year-old right-hander went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, and struck out three in a win. While Garza did not walk any batters in his last start, he has struggled with control this season. His 29 walks are fifth in the NL and he has walked two or more batters in 10 out of 12 appearances. He only gets 2.82 runs of support per game, which is the fourth lowest in the NL.
Last month, Garza was 1-4 with a 6.34 ERA in six outings. He did have one relief appearance against the Diamondbacks, where he threw five shutout innings in a 17-inning win for the Brewers. He gave up 23 earned runs in May, but ten of those came in a start on May 16 against the New York Mets.
Garza has not had much success against the Nationals in his career. In six starts against them, he is 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA. Last season, he was 0-2 with an ERA of 9.82 as he gave up eight runs in 7.1 innings. Wilson Ramos is 3-for-8 against him with four RBI’s.
Advantage: While Roark has given up more home runs than one would like, most of them have been of the solo variety. If he can stop a Brewer squad that has hit 57 home runs (5th in the NL), he should have the advantage here. While Garza has pitched better as of late, the Nationals should be able to work the count against him and put together at least one big inning, like they did for Roark against the Cubs.
Jun 7, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) pitches during the second inning against the Chicago Cubs at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (5-3, 3.18) vs. Mike Fiers (2-6, 4.06), 8:10 PM ET, MASN2
It will be a homecoming of sorts for Zimmermann on Friday night as the 29-year-old Zimmermann returns to his home state of Wisconsin. In his last start against the Cubs on June 7, Zimmermann was not his usual self in terms of control. He went five innings, gave up four runs on ten hits, struck out three, and walked two batters to lose his first start since April 18 against the Phillies. While his fastball velocity has gone up, the ten hits he gave up last start was a season high.
He did keep the damage to four runs, but the Nationals number two starter will be looking to go back to the form that he had in May, when he went 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA in five starts. Going back to Wisconsin just might help him in this case.
He is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts against Milwaukee with three of those outings coming at Miller Park. The hitter to watch on the Brewers is Aramis Ramirez, who is 8-for-22 against Zimmermann with four doubles, a home run, and two RBI’s.
While Mike Fiers’ record might be 2-6, he has not been able to get any run support from his team. Like his teammate Garza, Fiers is tied for the ninth lowest run support in the league (3.08). While he has not given up more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts, he has only thrown six innings or more in five of his 12 starts.
Last time out against the Twins on June 7, the 29-year-old right-hander went 4.1 innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out three, and walked a season-high three batters. He is 1-1 in three games against the Nats with a 1.59 ERA, but only one of those three outings was as a starter (2013). Ryan Zimmerman is 2-for-5 against Fiers with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: While Fiers has done a good job of keeping the Brewers in the game each of the last six starts, the Nationals should have enough not offense to end that streak. If Jordan Zimmermann has his control issues figured out in this one, he should get back on track in this outing where he will pitch in a stadium that he likes to pitch in. Nationals take the first two games of this series.
Jun 8, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson (52) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Ross (0-1, 5.40) vs. Jimmy Nelson (3-6, 4.05) – 4:10 PM ET, MASN
Even though Ross lost his Major League debut last Saturday afternoon against the Cubs, it was still a good first impression for the 22-year-old. He went five innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out four, and did not walk a batter.
According to Brooks Baseball, Ross used his four-seam fastball on 46 of his 91 pitches, but it averaged out at about 93 miles per hour. Ross brings four pitches to the mound with him: a fastball, slider, changeup, and sinker. He was able to induce 12 groundball outs, which is something he will need to repeat on Saturday when he goes to a hitter’s park in Miller Park.
This is Ross’ chance to make one last impression on the Nats staff as Doug Fister will make a rehab start Friday night at double-A Harrisburg. If all goes well, Fister will be back in the rotation and will likely take his spot. Still, Ross gets a taste of the big leagues and he is showing that there is a bright future ahead of him.
While Jimmy Nelson did not give up a run in his last outing against the Pirates (June 8), he did give up 11 runs in his previous two starts combined. He does have three wins this season and two of those three wins came against the Pirates.
Last season, the 26-year-old right-hander went 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 12 starts. The problem for Nelson in just his second year in the big leagues is control. He has 28 walks this season, which is one behind Garza for the team lead. He has walked five batters in a start twice over his last ten outings.
Advantage: With Ross or Nelson having never faced any of the opposing hitters they will see on Saturday, it will be interesting to see which team is the first to make the correct adjustments as each pitcher works their way thru the order. I like Ross’ potential, but this is the game that the Brewers win in a close shootout. Washington’s bullpen outside of Casey Janssen and Drew Storen has been a real struggle and the ‘pen will lose them this one on Saturday.
Jun 9, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (6-5, 2.13) vs. Taylor Jungmann (1-0, 1.29) – 2:10 PM ET, MASN2
On paper, this looks like a total mismatch in favor of the Washington Nationals. Max Scherzer will come into Sunday’s start trying to avoid losing his third start in a row. After a rough outing against the Blue Jays, he got his fastball back up to 96-97 miles per hour and kept the Yankees offense in check for most of the night on Tuesday.
However, the seventh inning was his demise as he gave up two singles and on his 115th pitch, Alex Rodriguez hit a groundball to short, which Ian Desmond made a bad throw to third base on, which allowed the eventual winning run to score. A Bryce Harper solo home run was the only run of support Scherzer had. Keep this stat in mind as you watch this game Sunday. In Scherzer’s six wins, the Nats have scored 38 runs. In his five losses, they have scored just six runs.
Scherzer has not faced the Brewers since 2009. He has no decisions in three starts, but has a 2.77 ERA in those games. Only four Brewers have faced Scherzer and nobody has more than one hit against him. Ryan Braun is 0-for-7 against the 30-year-old right-hander with four strikeouts.
The Nats will see another pitcher they are not too familiar with Sunday afternoon in 25-year-old right-hander Taylor Jungmann. He made his Major League debut on Tuesday against the Pirates and pitched well. He went seven innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out five, and walked one.
When you look at Jungmann’s triple-A numbers, they stand out for the wrong reasons. With triple-A Colorado Springs, he went 2-3 with a 6.37 ERA in 11 games (nine starts). While those numbers are bad, keep in mind that the Pacific Coast League is more suitable for the hitter. He did lead the team in strikeouts with 54, but was second on the team in walks (29) before he got promoted.
Advantage: This is a game that the Nationals should win with their ace on the mound as it’s tough to see Scherzer losing three consecutive starts. While the offense has been inconsistent as of late, this is a series that could see the Nats get back on track. I expect the Brewers to pitch well in this series, but the lack of control from their starters could come back to haunt them here. Nats win this game and take three of four games in this series.