Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Series Preview (6/15-6/18)
Jun 11, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Steven Souza Jr. (20) misses a foul fly ball during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Despite losing the first two games of their four game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Washington Nationals (33-30) were able to end the series on a high note as they won the final two games. Joe Ross recorded his first Major League win on Saturday and Max Scherzer had a historic performance on Sunday. Scherzer gave up only one hit and struck out 16 batters (a Nats record) in a 4-0 win.
Even though the Nationals are a half game behind the New York Mets for the NL East, they head down to Florida feeling confident about themselves, but there was an injury concern coming into this four game series against the Rays. Bryce Harper sat out of Sunday’s win after he was hit in the knee by a 95 mile per hour fastball from Michael Blazek in the ninth inning of Saturday’s win. Harper will be the designated hitter tonight and bat cleanup.
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This week, the NL East teams are facing off against the AL East teams in InterLeague home-and-home series. For the Nats, their opponent will be the Tampa Bay Rays (35-29). They will play games tonight and tomorrow at Tropicana Field and the Nationals will host Wednesday and Thursday’s games.
Even without manager Joe Maddon and general manager Andrew Friedman, the Rays are in a virtual tie with the New York Yankees for the AL East lead. In his first season as manager, Kevin Cash’s squad has won three straight, seven of their last ten, and they are 9-4 in the month of June.
Even without Matt Moore and Alex Cobb in the rotation, the Rays have a team ERA of 3.03 this month, which is second in the American League behind the Kansas City Royals. This season, their starters’ ERA is 3.15, which is second in the AL behind Oakland. Chris Archer, who will start Thursday’s game, has had a fantastic season. He is 7-4 with a 2.00 ERA and has a league high 113 strikeout.
In this series, the Nationals will see their former teammate, Steven Souza Jr. Souza Jr., who was traded to the Rays in the Joe Ross/Trea Turner deal back in December, has a team-high 12 home runs and 29 RBI’s. The 26-year-old has stolen eight bases, but he has also struck out 82 times this season. While the Rays are 26th in all of baseball in runs scored, you still have to mention the leader of this team, third baseman Evan Longoria. Longoria is hitting .266 in 62 games this season with six home runs and 28 RBI’s.
As for the bullpen, Tampa Bay has a 3.55 ERA, but they have given up 26 home runs, which is tied for second worst in the league. Brad Boxberger is Tampa Bay’s closer. While he did blow the save in Saturday’s win, he is 15-for-17 in save opportunities and has given up eight runs in 26 innings.
Let’s take a look at who has the advantage in each of the four pitching matchups this week:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jun 4, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Erasmo Ramirez (30) smacks his glove after leaving the game in the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (4-3, 4.42 ERA) vs. Erasmo Ramirez (5-2, 4.96) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN2
Ramirez was one of the pitchers who was acquired by Tampa Bay before the season began The 25-year-old right-hander was traded from the Mariners to the Rays in exchange for pitching prospect Mike Montgomery. Coming into this season, he had seven wins from 2012-2014 in 47 games (35 starters). This season, due to injuries, Ramirez is a part of the rotation.
Since joining the rotation on May 14, Ramirez is 5-2 with a 4.43 ERA in eight starts. He has a 2.61 ERA in June and has given up just three runs in his last 17.1 innings of work. He won’t overpower hitters with his fastball (averages 90 miles per hour according to Fangraphs), but he is a four-pitch pitcher and has a slider, changeup, and breaking ball in addition to that heater.
The only hitter in the Nationals hitter that has any experience against him is former Rays shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar is 4-for-7 against the right-hander with a RBI.
As for Gio Gonzalez, the lefty is coming off one of his best starts of the season last Wednesday against the New York Yankees. While he is still having issues with his command, he did hold the Yankees to two runs on four hits over 6.1 innings. Gonzalez had 11 groundball outs in that game, which is impressive when you consider it was at a hitter’s park at Yankee Stadium.
While Gonzalez has given up two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, he has walked seven batters in his last two games. That being said, he does have five or more strikeouts in four consecutive outings. His only game against the Rays was back in June of 2012 when he gave up two runs on seven hits in six innings to pick up the victory.
There is only one player on the Rays with a home run against Gonzalez. That is left fielder David DeJesus, He is 2-for-8 with a solo home run against him.
Advantage: While Gonzalez has been pitching better as of late, the advantage here goes to Ramirez. The Rays have won five of his six starts this season. Plus, even though Ramirez averages just 78 pitches per outing this year, Tampa’s bullpen, which is one of the best in the AL, gives them the edge in this game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchups
Jun 11, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Tanner Roark (57) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Tanner Roark (2-2, 3.71) vs. Alex Colome (3-2, 4.21) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN2 + MLB Network
Colome is a 26-year-old right-hander who has been with the Rays since 2013. He has made nine starts this season, which is one more start than he made in the two previous seasons combined. In his last two starts, Colome has given up one run in each of those outings over the course of 11.1 innings.
Like Ramirez, Colome is not a pitcher who is going to go deep into games. He only averages 83 pitches per start and has not reached the 100 pitch mark this year. Due to that low pitch count, he has not had one start where he has pitched into the seventh inning. Even though he doesn’t go deep into games, Colome has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He has an average fastball of about 94 mph (Fangraphs) and uses a slider, changeup, and breaking ball.
When you talk about Tanner Roark, he is coming off an outing where he was not able to hold a 5-1 lead against the Brewers. In 6.2 innings, the 28-year-old right-hander gave up five runs on nine hits, struck out four batters, and walked one in an no-decision.
Roark was solid in his first couple starts in the rotation, but he has a 6.57 ERA in his last two starts. He gave up the game-tying home run to Gerardo Parra in the seventh inning in his last start.
Now, some of the blame goes on Matt Williams here because Roark’s stuff has not been sharp as it gets deeper into the game. That Parra home run was the seventh home run that Roark has given up in his four starts. He gave up 16 home runs in 31 starts last season.
Advantage: There isn’t a lot of familiarity against either starter for both of these clubs, so you have to consider this one a toss-up. Even though Roark has given up the long ball, his velocity has been good on his fastball and he can go deeper into a game than Colome as shown. If that trend continues, give me the Nationals in this one as they split the first two games at Tropicana Field.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Jun 12, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Andriese (1-1, 3.76) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (5-4, 3.74), 7:05 PM ET, MASN2 + ESPN2
On Wednesday, the series will shift over to Nats Park for the final two games. The Rays will send rookie pitcher Matt Andriese to the mound for his fifth career start. In his last start against the White Sox on Friday, the 25-year-old right-hander picked up the first win of his career against the Chicago White Sox. In that outing, he gave up up two runs (no earned runs) on six hits in 5.2 innings. He struck out five batters and walked one.
As a starter, Andriese has a 4.41 ERA in four starts, but he has only thrown 16.1 innings. Andrriese, like Colome and Ramirez, is a four-pitch pitcher and has about the same average velocity as Ramirez. While he hasn’t given up more than four runs in any game this season, the Nationals need to work the pitch count up against Andreise, who has only averaged 71 pitches per start and has an opponents’ batting average of .308.
The Nationals have not yet announced a starter for Wednesday, but it looks like Jordan Zimmermann will get the start in this spot. Here is what Matt Williams had to say about the situation today, after Doug Fister threw a bullpen session along with Zimmermann:
In his last start, Zimmermann was not effective against the Brewers. He had his second shortest outing of the season when he went 3.1 innings, gave up six runs on nine hits, struck out four, and walked one in the loss. He had to throw 31 pitches in the first inning because of an Ian Desmond mistake on a potential double play, but he still threw 88 pitches in those 3.1 innings.
One of the problems for Zimmermann this season is that he has not struck out many batters. His season high for strikeouts in an outing is seven and he has only 16 strikeouts in his last four starts. After a great month of May, the 29-year-old right-hander has a 5.51 ERA in two June starts and has not pitched into the sixth inning. The Nats need Zimmermann to get back to his May form if they want to continue their winning ways.
Zimmermann made one start against the Rays at Tropicana Field back in June of 2009. He went five innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out six, and walked two in a no-decision. The only Rays hitter who has a RBI against Zimmermann is first baseman James Loney (1-for-3 with a RBI).
Advantage: It will be interesting to see how the Nationals offense will adjust to Andriese after seeing him the first time thru, but it’s tough to see Zimmermann having three bad starts in a row. Plus, Zimmermann has a 2.58 ERA in seven starts at home this season (5.40 ERA in six road starts). The home field advantage gets the Nats a victory on Wednesday.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Jun 7, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chris Archer (22) throws the ball against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Archer (7-4, 2.00) vs. TBA – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
The Washington Nationals have not yet named a starter for Thursday either, but Doug Fister (2-2, 4.31) is throwing a bullpen session today and the Nats will see if he is ready to make that start this week. Fister’s spot has been occupied by 22-year-old Joe Ross, who went eight innings and gave up two runs on seven hits while striking out eight in a win over the Brewers on Saturday.
Fister had a good outing in his final rehab start on Friday for double-A Harrisburg against the Trenton Thunder. He went six innings, gave up no runs on two hits, and struck out four batters on 70 pitche (47 strikes). Even though he doesn’t have a high velocity on his fastball, the key for Fister would be to get that sinker down in the zone and not leave it up like he did in the first couple of months when he gave up five home runs in seven starts.
Regardless of who is pitching on Thursday, it will be tough for that pitcher to beat Chris Archer the way he has been pitching this season. Archer, who has become the temporary “ace” of the Rays rotation, has not lost a start since May 7 against the Texas Rangers (seven starts).
In his last start on June 13, the 26-year-old right-hander went seven innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out five, and walked one in a no-decision. His five strikeouts snapped a streak of three straight starts in which Archer had double digit strikeouts in a game. His 113 K’s this season are the most in the American League and his WHIP of 0.94 is second in the AL, behind only Sonny Gray of the A’s (0.93)
Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond do have a RBI against Archer in their careers. Archer made one start against the Nats at Nats Park in June 2012. In his first ever Major League start, he went six innings, gave up one earned run on three hits and struck out seven, but took the loss.
Advantage: Regardless of who gets the start on Thursday for the Nationals, there will be a level of excitement at the ballpark, whether it’s to see Ross in his third outing or Fister make his return. However, with the way Chris Archer has been throwing this season, its tough to predict a Nats win in this one. If Archer’s changeup is dominant and in the zone, it wil be a long night in D.C. for Matt Williams’ offense. In the end, the Nats split the four game series with Tampa, winning one in each ballpark.