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Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Braves (6/23-6/25)

By Ricky Keeler |
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Jun 17, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves Nick Markakis (22) hits an RBI single as Boston Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart (23) is shown on the play during the seventh inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Washington Nationals (37-33) were coming off losing three of four games to the Tampa Bay Rays and everyone was not sure when Bryce Harper would be back in the lineup. Plus, they were playing a team that came into DC riding an eight-game win streak.

The Nationals were able to get great pitching from all three starters, especially Max Scherzer. The Nationals ace threw a no-hitter on Saturday and was one strike away from a perfect game. Scherzer, Joe Ross, and Gio Gonzalez combined to give up one earned run. As for the offense, they scored 19 runs in three games and got two home runs from Bryce Harper, who returned to the lineup on Saturday.

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The Nationals will conclude their eight game homestand with a three game series against the Atlanta Braves (35-35). In six meetings this season, the Nats are 5-1 against Atlanta and have won five straight games against them. This includes a home sweep of the Braves from May 8-May 10.

Bryce Harper has been great against many teams this season, but take a look at numbers against the Braves. In those six games, he is hitting .455 with three home runs and nine RBI’s. While both teams have changed since the last meeting, there will be a notable Nats killer missing for the Braves this week.

First baseman Freddie Freeman, who is a .340 career hitter against Washington with nine home runs and 44 RBI’s, has not played in a game since June 17 due to a wrist injury. Today, he was placed on the 15-day disabled list:

As for the Braves, they are 10-10 this month, but coming into this series after sweeping the Mets over the weekend and are now within two games of the Nats in the division. In June, the Braves have the best on-base percentage in the NL (.348), and have scored the second most runs (92). One of the players that is having a great month is center fielder Cameron Maybin. He is hitting .347 this month with 13 RBI’s.

When you look at the rotation Fredi Gonzalez has, Atlanta’s staff ERA is at 3.87, which is right about where the Nationals are (3.93). Shelby Miller, who the Nats will see on Wednesday for the first time this season, is 5-3 with a 1.99 ERA and has thrown two complete games (tied with Scherzer).

In the bullpen, while the Braves do not have Craig Kimbrel, but Jason Grilli has stepped in as the closer and saved 20 games in 22 chances. That being said, the Braves’ bullpen is hittable, to say the least. Their team ERA of 4.47 in the ‘pen is the second highest in the NL. Plus, they have to watch David Carpenter, their former setup man, pitch against them for the first time. Let’s take a look at who has the edge in the three pitching matchups this series:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

May 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

  Alex Wood (4-4, 3.40) vs. Stephen Strasburg (3-5, 6.55) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2

The Nationals will start Stephen Strasburg (3-5, 6.55) in a game for the first time since May 29. Strasburg, who was recovering from a left trapezius strain, made his last start in a rehab outing with Harrisburg on June 17. In order to make room for Strasburg on the roster, the organization sent starting pitcher Joe Ross down to triple-A Syracuse:

He went five innings, gave up one earned run on four hits, struck out six, and did not walk a batter against the Richmond Flying Squirrels (San Francisco Giants). Even in the start against Cincy on May 29, Strasburg never lost velocity and he was hitting 95-97 miles per hour with his fastball last week.

That being said, the Nats need Strasburg to bounce back instead of being a pitcher that had opponents hitting .325 against him. At home this season, he is 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA in four starts, but that is good compared to his 7.62 ERA on the road.

Historically, Strasburg struggles against the Braves. In 17 starts, he is 4-7 with a 4.24 ERA. If Freeman is out, the best hitter against Strasburg on Atlanta is Chris Johnson, who is 8-for-29 against him with three RBI’s.

The Nationals will go up against Alex Wood. The 24-year-old right-hander has had a 3.20 ERA in the month of June. In his four starts, he has not given up more than four runs and he has gone six or more innings in three of those outings.

The unique stat about Wood is that all four of his wins this season have come away from Turner Field. He is 4-1 on the road with a 2.58 ERA. He has made two starts against the Nationals and is 0-1 in those outings with a 6.17 ERA. Harper is 7-for-14 against him with two RBI’s, but Anthony Rendon is better. The Nats’ second baseman is 8-for-13 with a solo home run.

Advantage: There is optimism surrounding Stephen Strasburg’s return and he can’t be as bad as he was to begin the season. Wood has given up only one earned run in four of his last six starts and has to be coming into this start with a lot of confidence. Even with Freeman out, it is unknown which Strasburg will show up for the Nationals. That being said, the offense for the Nats comes in with a lot of confidence off of scoring 19 runs in Pittsburgh. I think the bullpen, with the help of Carpenter, helps pull off a 7-5 kind of win.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Jun 18, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Shelby Miller (17) throws a pitch against the Boston Red Sox in the sixth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Shelby Miller (5-3, 1.99) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 3.75) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN2

This offseason, general manager John Hart went out and acquired Shelby Miller from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for right fielder Jason Heyward. So far, despite a rough month of June, Miller has been everything as advertised for Atlanta.

In his last start, Miller took the loss against the Boston Red Sox on June 18, but he did not get much from his defense. He went 5.2 innings, gave up four runs (one earned) on seven hits, struck out four, and walked one in the loss. The last time Miller won a start was May 17, when he was one out away from a no-hitter against Miami. That was six starts ago.

Despite his success not showing up in the win totals, Miller’s 1.99 ERA is the fourth lowest in the National League, but his FIP is at 3.27. In June, he has had some issues with command as he has walked ten batters in four starts, but opponents have not been able to take advantage based on his .205 opponents batting average against.

In his career, Miller has been dominant against the Nats. In four starts, he is 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA, giving up only two runs in those outings. Rendon is 2-for-8 with a double and a RBI against him, but you won’t find many Nats who have a good history against this guy.

It will be a tall order for Jordan Zimmermann, who has not looked sharp in the month of June. While he has had to throw more pitches in innings a couple of times, the 29-year-old right-hander has a 5.01 ERA in four starts this month.

His last outing against the Rays on June 17 was a step in the right direction. He went seven innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, struck out eight, and walked one. However, he lost his third straight start because of the two home runs he gave up in the fifth inning and because the Nationals didn’t score a run.

In those three consecutive losses, he has given up 13 runs in 15.1 innings and the strikeouts had been down until his last outing, when he had a season-high eight K’s.

Against the Braves this season, Zimmermann is 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA, but he did have issues with the bottom of the order in his last start against Atlanta when he gave up three runs over six innings, but walked three batters. Nick Markakis is 5-for-18 against Zimmermann with a RBI.

Advantage: While I do expect both pitchers to have solid outings here, it is tough to ignore how dominant Miller has been against the Nationals in his career. While Zimmermann seemed to have got back on track against Tampa Bay, Miller will outduel him in a pitcher’s duel. Braves win a low scoring game.

Next: Thursday's Matchup

Jun 19, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Matt Wisler (37) delivers a pitch to a New York Mets batter in the fifth inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Wisler (1-0, 1.13) vs. Doug Fister (2-3, 4.80), 4:05 PM ET, MASN2

On the night that the regular season began, the Braves went out and traded Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres. On Thursday, Matt Wisler, one of the prospects that Atlanta got in that deal, will be pitching against the Nats in his second career start.

In his first start last Friday against the Mets, the 22-year-old right-hander went eight innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out two, and walked none in a 2-1 win in which he outdueled Jacob deGrom. When he was with triple-A Gwinnett, Wisler was 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 starts.

Wisler has four pitches in his arsenal when he goes to the mound. He has a sinker that can get up to the mid-90’s in velocity, a changeup, a slider, and curveball. For more on Wisler, check out this scouting report by Wayne Cavadi of Grading on the Curve, who saw the right-hander pitch in April.

As for Doug Fister, he will be making his second start since returning from his forearm injury. Against the Rays last Thursday, he went 5.1 innings, gave up five runs on nine hits, and struck out three batters on 87 pitches. While the 31-year-old seemed to tire out at the end of his outing, there was a positive to take from that game.

For one, Fister kept his sinker low in the zone. He induced 12 groundball outs, which is the most in any start for him since April 22 against the St. Louis Cardinals. If he can keep the ball down and avoid giving up the home runs (six in eight starts), he should be able to bounce back once he is used to going deeper into games.

Against the Braves this season, Fister is 0-1 with a 5.11 ERA in two starts. In his last start against them on May 9, he gave up three runs on six hits in 6.2 innings, but got the no-decision because the bullpen blew the lead. A.J. Pierzynski, Atlanta’s catcher, is 5-for-24 against him with two home runs and three RBI’s.

Advantage: If this matchup turns out to be the rubber game in this series, it is a toss up. The Nationals have no experience against Wisler, so they will need some time during the game to make adjustments. Fister looked okay in his return, but can he go past the fifth inning with his A stuff? Based on the Nats having no experience against this young pitcher, Wisler gets the slight edge here and the Braves take two of three in Washington.

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