Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Phillies (6/26-6/28)
Jun 20, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies for a three-game weekend set and we are here at District on Deck to preview the games and breakdown the pitching matchups.
The Nationals are riding high after two consecutive series sweeps of the Braves and the Pirates. The starting pitching has been excellent setting a, franchise record 41.1 scoreless inning streak. The bats are also supporting this excellent pitching performance by scoring 31 runs over these past six games. In other words, due to outstanding pitching and great run support, the Nats have outscored their opponents 31-5. You are not going to lose many ballgames with that type of execution and the Nationals will look to continue their winning ways this weekend.
The Nationals success rides on arguably the best position player and the best pitcher in the game in Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer. Bryce may be a little banged up going into this series as he sat out the series finale against the Braves with a cramp, but he should still be able to dominate the back-end of the Phillies rotation.
Mad Max has been nothing but fantastic for the Nationals. He was the NL Player of the week this past week, due to a one-hitter and a near perfect game/no-hitter in his last start. He is simply outstanding and should make easy work of this hobbled Phillies lineup.
The Phillies are coming off a road trip where they won two out of three to the New York Yankees, but are in dead last in the NL East at a woeful 26-48. The Phillies are not a very good team and it seems like they are going to blow up what remaining good pieces they have soon and build towards the future.
The only real threat to the Nationals would have been Cole Hamels. He has pitched well against the Nationals this year. Fortunately for the Nats, he is not pitching this series, which leaves the Phillies very vulnerable to getting swept.
The Nats are on a roll and the Phillies are ripe for the picking, but let’s look at the matchups to see who holds the advantage going into each game.
Next: Friday's Matchup
Jun 20, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the eighth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (8-5, 1.76 ERA) v. Aaron Harang (4-9, 3.41 ERA) Friday, 7:05 PM EST on MASN
The Nationals start the series against the Phillies by trotting out their ace, Max Scherzer against Aaron Harang.
On paper, this matchup couldn’t be more lopsided for the Nationals. Max Scherzer is coming off a no-hitter against the Pirates over the weekend. That start came after another nine innings of shutout ball his previous start against the Brewers only giving up one, a broken-bat single. Scherzer was the obvious choice for NL Player of the Week last week after his near perfect game and two dominate performances. I am not sure anyone can keep up this type of pitching, but you can always depend on a solid, if not outstanding start from Max Scherzer. The one stat that says everything about Mad Max: his batting average is .242 and his batting average against him is .181. Max is a gamer and expect another great performance from him.
As a complete contrast to Scherzer, Aaron Harang comes into this matchup struggling. He is in the midst of a six-game losing streak and he has given up four runs each of the last two times out. He has not gotten much run support from his club, but he is still giving up a lot of hits and runs to put his club in the position where they have to come from behind.
Harang has done a decent job against the Nats so far this year with a quality start each time and a 1-1 record.
This year, Harang has not fared well against lefties, and the big lefty bat for the Nats should have a good night. Bryce Harper is .455/.500/.727 against Harang lifetime and, if Espinosa gets the nod, he should also have a good night from the left side of the plate.
Advantage: Max Scherzer
This is an easy call. Max has been worth every penny the Nats paid for him and then some this year. He not only makes opponent batters look silly, he has been a valuable member of the Nationals squad off the field. He is a leader in the clubhouse and he makes the other members of the pitching staff better around him.
Look for Max to go deep in this game against a struggling Phillies lineup and for the Nats to have a field day, especially from the left side of the plate, taking an early lead in this three-game weekend set.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Jun 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (5-4, 4.41 ERA) v. Adam Morgan (1-0, 1.59 ERA) Saturday, 3:05 PM EST on MASN
For the second game of the three-game set, the Nationals start Gio Gonzalez against Adam Morgan for the Phillies.
Gio is coming of seven solid innings against the Pirates, giving up no runs on four. It was an outstanding start, following the pattern of all the Nats’ starters this past week, but it came on the heels of a poor start against Tampa Bay. Gio gave up eight hits and five runs in only 3.1 innings of work in that outing.
This has been the story of Gio’s season so far this year. He seems to have a great start followed by a disaster of a start. Gonzalez is much better better starter at home than he is on the road, sporting a 2.65 ERA at home against a 5.89 ERA on the road, which could explain some of his inconsistencies. He is also an extreme ground ball pitcher this year with a 2.98 GB/FB ratio with a high BABIP at .354. He should be pitching just a bit better than he is right now, but since he is on the road, it is difficult to tell which Gio we will get.
The Phillies start Adam Morgan, who was solid his last start. He went 5.2 innings and gave up one run on six hits in a win over the Cardinals. Morgan is a rookie who was drafted in 2011 from Alabama and had a decent year in A-ball with a 3.35 ERA over 159 innings in 2012.
He might have moved up the ladder a bit too quick as his numbers suffered in Triple-A in 2013 and spent all of 2014 recovering from a torn rotator cuff. He was not on anyone’s radar this year as he started off going 0-6 in the minors with a 4.74 ERA. His decent performance is probably a result of baseball sometimes being unpredictable and I do not think he will have a repeat performance.
Advantage: Gio Gonzalez
Gio is the clear favorite going into the matchup with the rookie and look for him to have a solid outing. I still do not know what we are going to get from Gio from start-to-start. He is on the road, where he pitches a bit worse than at home, but I think he will be good enough to get the win. Look for the Nats to jump all over the rookie and go into the series finale up two games.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Jun 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg (4-5, 5.90 ERA) v. Kevin Correia (0-1, 4.30 ERA) 1:35 PM EST on MASN
The Nationals start Stephen Strasburg on Sunday for the series finale against Kevin Correia for the Phillies.
It is no secret that Stephen Strasburg has struggled so far this year. In fact, it is arguably his worst stretch of his career. There are many different theories about why he hasn’t pitched up to expectations, but I think there are good things in the future for Stras this year.
Last start, he had his best start of the year going five shutout innings against the Braves. His fastball touched 98 and he had command of all his pitches. His ERA is still high at 5.90, but if you look a bit deeper, that should start to come down. His BABIP is still absurdly high at .383 and his FIP, at 3.70, suggests his ERA should come down as well.
Again, the Phillies start a pitcher they didn’t expect to contribute at all this year in Kevin Corriea. In fact, he wasn’t even a part of the organization until June 5 when the Phillies signed him to a minor league contract. Correia started this year in the Mariners’ farm system, but it wasn’t long before they released him. He was picked up by the Giants, but was also later released. He is a journeyman at best and the Phillies are in rough shape in their starting rotation if they have to turn to Corriea to plug the gaps.
Advantage: Stephen Strasburg
It is hard to call for a sweep of the Phillies right after the Nats swept the Braves and the Pirates, but I just can’t see how Scherzer, Gio, and Stras could lose against the back-end of the struggling Phillies starting rotation. I do not fully trust that Stephen is back to his old self, but he looked relaxed and in command and his numbers suggest he is due for a great second half of the season. I don’t expect the journeyman Corriea to put up much of a fight against this Nationals lineup and the Nationals should sweep the Phillies pushing their win streak to nine.