Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Giants (7/3-7/5)
Jun 30, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (28) hits a home run in the third inning in a game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
With the exception of scoring four runs in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves, the Washington Nationals (43-36) did not have a great series on offense. In the final two games against two rookie pitchers (Matt Wisler and Manny Banuelos), the Nats offense managed only two runs with the series ultimately ending in the Braves favor on a walk-off double by Cameron Maybin that bounced over the third base bag against Max Scherzer in the bottom of the ninth last night.
Even though the Nationals lost two of three to the Braves, they still hold a three game lead on the Mets and a five game lead on Atlanta in the NL East. This weekend, they look to get a little bit of a revenge and bring the fireworks to Nats Park on 4th of July weekend against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the San Francisco Giants (42-38). San Francisco is coming to Nats Park after being swept by the Marlins this week down in Miami.
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Last October, the defending World Series champions knocked off the Nationals in four games in the NLDS, including a 2-1 18-inning win in Game 2 at Nats Park. This season, Bruce Bochy’s club has had to deal with a few injuries, but they are still just three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead.
Right now, the Giants are without outfielders Nori Aoki and Hunter Pence, who are both on the disabled list. Yes, the offense does not have Pablo Sandoval this year (who is now with the Red Sox), but they are second in baseball in batting average and fourth in on-base percentage. Plus, they still have Buster Posey. The Giants’ catcher is hitting .304 with 13 home runs and 56 RBI’s this season.
While Posey is the centerpiece of their offense, keep an eye on a couple of young players in this series. Second baseman Joe Panik is hitting .316 with six home runs and 30 RBI’s and third baseman Matt Duffy is hitting .294 with eight home runs and 37 RBI’s.
San Francisco has also dealt with pitching injuries this season, but Jake Peavy is returning from the DL tonight after being out since April due to a back strain and Matt Cain made his return to the rotation yesterday against Jose Fernandez. San Fran’s starters’ ERA this season is 4.03, which is ninth in the NL.
As far as their bullpen is concerned, closer Santiago Casilla is getting a couple of days off because of his arm being tired. Casilla has saved 20 games in 24 chances and made 35 appearances this season.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in these three pitching matchups, starting with tonight’s game, which starts at 6:05 PM ET:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jun 21, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Jake Peavy (0-2, 9.39 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (5-4, 4.41) – 6:05 PM ET, MASN and ESPN
As I mentioned earlier, Jake Peavy will be making his first start since April 17 tonight because of a back strain. Even before he went on the disabled list, the 34-year-old right-hander gave up four runs and did not go past four innings in both of his starts this year.
Last season, after being traded over to the Giants from Boston, he went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts. He was also the winner of Game 1 in last year’s NLDS when he was able to shut out the Nats. He went 5.2 innings, gave up two hits, struck out three batters, and walked three in that game.
In 12 appearances (11 starts) against the Nationals during the regular season, Peavy is 4-5 with a 3.87 ERA. Ian Desmond and Dan Uggla have home runs against him, but the player to watch in this one is leadoff hitter Denard Span. The Nats center fielder is 7-for-20 against Peavy with five doubles.
While Peavy will be trying to shake off some rust in this outing, Gio Gonzalez will be looking to do the same. Last Saturday, Gonzalez’s outing was cut short after one inning because the game was cancelled due to rain. He has not pitched since June 27, so will his stuff stay sharp tonight?
His control is still going to be an issue in this outing. The 29-year-old right-hander has walked 12 batters in his last four starts, but he has had three straight outings in which he has induced ten or more groundball outs. In the month of June, Gonzalez went 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in four starts.
Gonzalez is 2-2 in seven career starts against the Giants with a 2.59 ERA. Last season, he got the start in Game 4 of the NLDS. He went four innings, gave up two runs (none earned) on four hits, struck out one, and walked one in a no decision. Giants’ shortstop Brandon Crawford (.270, 11 HR, 47 RBI’s) is 2-for-6 against the lefty with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: This start is going to come down to who can shake off the rust quicker when you consider both pitchers will likely not be sharp in the early stages. Both teams are coming in reeling, but I like the Nationals to find a way to take this one in a close game to get the series started on a good note. Gonzalez can be inconsistent, but he will be able to get some key double plays to help him get out of trouble.
Next: Tomorrow Morning's Matchup
Jun 28, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) pitches during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports
Madison Bumgarner (8-4, 2.99) vs. Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 5.49) – 11:05 AM ET, MASN and MLB Network
Last year’s World Series MVP has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. The 25-year-old Bumgarner has pitched into the eighth inning in each of his last five starts. Plus, he has given up three runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts.
In his last four outings, the right-hander has given up seven earned runs combined. He has been able to rack up the strikeouts in his outings, recording eight or more K’s in five of his last six starts. This includes a start against the Padres on June 23 when he struck out 14 batters.
Last postseason, the Nationals were the only team to beat the Giants’ ace. In Game 3 of the NLDS, he went seven innings, gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits, struck out six, and walked one in the loss. As for his career as a whole, Bumgarner is 2-3 with a 2.60 ERA in seven starts against the Nats. Bryce Harper is 3-for-9 against him with a home run. Remember, Harper had three home runs in that four game series last October.
In his two starts back from the disabled list, Stephen Strasburg has looked like the Strasburg of old. In 12 innings of work, he has given up two runs, struck out 15 batters, and walked two. Against the Phillies on June 28, he struck out nine batters and gave up two runs to get the win.
For Strasburg, the key for him has been the ability to get his fastball over for strikes and with a higher velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, Strasburg’s average fastball velocity against Philadelphia was 96.7 miles per hour with a high of 99.5. When he is able to get his fastball over for strikes, it allows him to use his curveball and changeup effectively to finish off hitters. In addition, it was good to see that the Nats trusted him to go 113 pitches in his second start back.
In the regular season, Strasburg is 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA in five starts against the Giants. However, Strasburg lost Game 1 of the NLDS to Peavy last season. In that game, he went five innings, gave up two runs (one earned) on eight hits, struck out two, and walked one on 89 pitches. The problem that day for Strasburg was out of the 25 batters he faced, he only had ten first pitch strikes. Crawford is 3-for-9 against him with four RBI’s.
Advantage: With this game being played on the 4th of July, this should be a great crowd at Nats Park. I don’t expect a lot of offense in this one as both pitchers are performing well heading into this outing. If Strasburg doesn’t get that fastball over for strike one, it could be a long day. I think he will pitch well, but unless the Giants make mistakes in the field, Bumgarner finds a way to win a 4-3 game.
Next: Sunday Night's Matchup
Jun 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) follows through on a pitch against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Vogelsong (6-6, 4.19) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (6-5, 3.16) – 8:08 PM ET, ESPN
When you look at Ryan Vogelsong’s 2015 season, he has been inconsistent in terms of what to expect from him. While he has not given up a run in three of his last eight starts, he has also given up four runs or more in three of those games as well. That being said, he has gone into the sixth innings in ten of his last 11 outings. The key for the Nats will be to stay patient against a pitcher who has walked 36 batters in 86 innings this season.
In his last start against the Marlins on June 30, the 37-year-old right-hander went six innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out four, and walked three. After going 4-0 in five starts during the month of May, Vogelsong went 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA in June and he has an ERA of 5.40 in nine appearances (eight starts) on the road this year.
Vogelsong is 1-2 in nine appearances (five starts) against the Nationals with a 6.16 ERA. Last year in the regular season, the Nats scored nine runs against him in 11.1 innings. However, he was the winning pitcher against Gonzalez in Game 4 of the NLDS.
He went 5.2 innings, gave up one run on two hits, struck out four, and walked two on 81 pitches in the win. The only run that was scored against him was a RBI double by Bryce Harper in the fifth. Ian Desmond is 4-for-10 against Vogelsong with one home run and six RBI’s in his career.
When you look at Jordan Zimmermann’s last three starts, he has been excellent. Over his last 22.2 innings, the 29-year-old right-hander has given up three earned runs and has thrown back-to-back shutouts over that span. Plus, while both starts were against the Braves, he did not walk a batter and has just four walks in his last four games combined.
Against Atlanta on June 30, he went 7.2 innings, gave up no runs on six hits, struck out six, and did not walk a batter. Despite a rough start to the month of June, Zimmermann went 2-3 in six starts with a 3.00 ERA and had 28 strikeouts (most of any month this season).
Against the Giants in the regular season, Zimmermann is 5-2 in eight starts with a 2.79 ERA and has won five of his last six starts against. Of course, the start against the Giants that everyone remembers is Game 2 of last year’s NLDS, when Zimmermann got a no-decision.
Zimmermann went 8.2 innings in that game, gave up one run on three hits, struck out six, and walked one. He had one out to go for a complete game, but after walking Joe Panik, Matt Williams went to Drew Storen to try to close it out. However, Posey would single and Sandoval would hit a double down the left field line to tie the game. One Giant hitter to watch in this game is first baseman Brandon Belt (.268, 9 HR, 35 RBI’s), who is 2-for-7 with two RBI’s against him.
Advantage: In his last three starts, Zimmermann has gone back to the dominant form that Nats fans saw during the bulk of the 2014 season. Vogelsong has been good at times, but his lack of control should benefit the Nationals hitters, if they stay patient. It’s another national stage for Zimmermann, with the game on ESPN, and I expect the Nats to make a statement after a tough Atlanta series and take two of three from the defending World Champs.