Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Reds (7/6-7/8)
Jul 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier hits a double in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won 7-3. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
This past weekend, the Washington Nationals (46-36) were able to make a statement against the team that ended their season back in October. In their sweep of the San Francisco Giants, the Nats outscored San Francisco 12-5 and received good starting pitching from Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann. However, Strasburg is now on the 15-day disabled list with a left oblique strain.
While Bryce Harper, who was named as an NL All-Star starter last night, got on-base in nearly every at-bat (5-for-8, four runs scored, a home run, two RBI’s, and five walks), there was good performances from players who have stepped up recently as starters. Clint Robinson hit the deciding two run homer off Jake Peavy in Friday’s 2-1 win and Tyler Moore had four RBI’s on the fourth of July.
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With their recent sweep, the Nationals have now won nine straight home games and are ahead of the New York Mets by 4.5 games in the NL East. They get set to begin a three game series tonight against the Cincinnati Reds (36-44), a team that swept them back at the Great American Ball Park at the end of May.
During that series, the Reds outscored the Nationals 21-9 and got great performances from their star players on offense. Third baseman and All-Star starter Todd Frazier (.285, 25 HR, 54 RBI’s) went 8-for-12 with two home runs and three RBI’s during the series. In addition, first baseman Joey Votto (.273, 14 HR, 39 RBI’s, .387 on-base percentage), went 4-for-10 with two home runs and three RBI’s. One of the differences from that series is the addition of David Carpenter to a bullpen that had trouble getting Reds’ hitters out in that series.
Coming into this series, Bryan Price’s team is reeling. They have lost seven of their last nine games and are 14-17 since June 1. They are currently 16.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. With the trade deadline coming up at the end of the month, it remains to be seen which players will be in Reds’ uniforms on August 1.
Some of the names that have been floated out there in trade rumors including ace pitcher Johnny Cueto, who is in the final year of his deal, starting pitcher Mike Leake (5-5, 4.39), and closer Aroldis Chapman (16 saves, 3.78 ERA), who has been linked to the Nationals.
Before tonight’s series begins between the Nationals and Reds, let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) reacts after giving up a solo home run to Atlanta Braves third baseman Juan Uribe (2, right) in the fourth inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony DeSclafani (5-6, 3.68 ERA) vs. Doug Fister (3-4, 4.34) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
When you take a look at this pitching matchup, it looks on paper to be a battle of two groundball pitchers. The Nationals do have some experience against DeSclafani. The 25-year-old right-hander faced the Nats back on May 29, when he went up against Strasburg. He went six innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out one, and walked two in the victory.
In his last start against the Twins, DeSclafani threw 122 pitches (a career high), but gave up six runs on 11 hits in 6.2 innings in a loss. During the month of June, the rookie went 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA in six starts and opponents hit .293 against him.
However, when you put DeSclafani away from Great American Ball Park, he has been solid. In eight road starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA and opponents are hitting .198 (.311 at home). In that loss to the Twins, he had 15 groundball outs, the same as he had against Washington in May. Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos each had two hits and a RBI in that game.
While Doug Fister did have 11 groundball outs in his last start against the Braves on July 1, he still gave up four runs on seven hits over six innings and a pair of home runs in a 4-1 loss. Since returning from the disabled list, the 31-year-old right-hander has given up nine runs in three outings and three home runs.
The one inning where the Nats veteran struggled in was the fourth inning when he gave up back-to-back home runs to A.J. Pierzynski and Juan Uribe and a RBI single to the pitcher, Matt Wisler. That being said, Fister still needs to continue to keep his sinker low, especially against a Reds lineup that is second in the NL in home runs (92).
In his career, Fister is 2-0 against the Reds with a 1.29 ERA with both starts taking place last season. Left fielder Marlon Byrd (.244, 14 HR, 32 RBI’s) is 5-for-12 with one home run and three RBI’s against him. Plus, Byrd comes into this series on a ten-game hitting streak, which includes six mult-hit games.
Advantage: The key to this game will be which pitcher can keep the ball down in the zone and keep the damage to a minimum. I expect this one to be close, but the edge goes to the Nats because of DeSclafani’s control. The Reds pitcher has walked 37 batters this season and has walked two or more hitters in nine of his last ten starts. Against this Nats lineup, you can’t afford to keep making mistakes. Washington wins the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 2, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the second inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Johnny Cueto (5-5, 2.84) vs. Max Scherzer (9-6, 1.82) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
The battle of aces should be exciting to watch at Nats Park on Tuesday, even though both pitchers could miss the All-Star Game if both start on regular rest Sunday night.
Cueto has been one of the main pitchers that has been talked about in trade rumors along with Cole Hamels. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 0.92 WHIP and is coming off a great start against the Twins on July 1. In that game, he went eight innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out eight, and walked one.
In five starts during the month of June, he went 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA. In ten starts against the Nats, Cueto is 6-3 with 4.06 ERA. Danny Espinosa is 3-for-11 against him with three RBI’s.
As for Max Scherzer, there’s not much more you can say about how dominant he has been. The pitcher of the month in the NL for May and June had another good start on July 2 against the Braves, but took the loss. He went 8.1 innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out nine, and did not walk a batter. In fact, the Nats’ ace has not walked anybody in his last three starts.
Right now, Scherzer has been Mr. Reliable in the Nats rotation. He has thrown the most innings in the National League, is second in strikeouts, second in ERA, and has a 0.78 WHIP, which leads the league. Whenever you watch a Scherzer start lately, you get the sense history can happen.
Scherzer only has one start in his career against the Reds, but that was back in 2008 when he gave up one run on two hits in a no-decision. Jay Bruce (.238, 12 HR, 40 RBI’s) is 1-for-2 against him with a solo home run.
Advantage: I expect this game to live up to the hype in terms of both pitchers bringing their A game to the table. That being said, it is tough to not pick Scherzer in this one because he has been dominant in his last four starts. Give me the Nationals in a 3-2 game.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Jun 16, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen (50) pitches in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.58) vs. Gio Gonzalez (6-4, 4.16) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
Lorenzen is a 23-year-old rookie who has pitched well since entering the Cincinnati rotation against the Nats on May 31. He has given up more than three runs once over the course of seven starts. Against the Nats, he gave up two runs on one hit in 6.1 innings to get the win back in May, but he did walk six batters.
In his last start against the Brewers on July 3, the right-hander went four innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out three, and walked two in a loss. Like DeSclafani, Lorenzen has also struggled with command. He has 35 walks this season and has walked two or more hitters in eight of his last ten appearances.
In his last start on Friday against the Giants, Gio Gonzalez was able to shake off not getting a full outing since June 21. He went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, and struck out six to win his second straight start. Plus, he did not walk a batter for the first time this season.
The only mistake Gonzalez made in that game came in the seventh inning when Buster Posey hit a solo home run against him. Over his last 14 innings, the left-hander has given up one run on nine hits and struck out ten batters. With Strasburg out, there’s more pressure on Gonzalez to consistently give the Nats six innings of work.
Gonzalez did face the Reds back on May 30 and had a rough start. He went 5.1 innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked two in a no-decision. Plus, he did get hit by a pitch in that game by Raisel Iglesias in the fifth inning. Joey Votto is 5-for-12 against him with two home runs and four RBI’s.
Advantage: While the Nats are on a roll right now at home, I am never one to predict sweeps. Lorenzen does have an issue with walking a lot of hitters, but he did keep the damage down in that first start against Washington. As for Gonzalez, I want to see if he can put three consistent starts together. This might be a game where the Reds offense hits a couple out of the park to win a 7-4 kind of game, but the Nats still take two out of three.