Washington Nationals Analysis: Second Half Preview
Jun 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals grounds crew members prepare the field prior to the game against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
87 games down, 75 to go. While the All-Star Break is really only the unofficial mark of the halfway point through the season, there is still a lot of baseball still to be played. At the break, the 48-39 Washington Nationals sit atop the National League East, two games up on the second place New York Mets. If the season ended today, Washington would hold the No. 3 seed in the playoffs and would face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
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Between these final 75 games, the Nats will face 14 opponents across 23 series and one make-up game against the Cincinnati Reds. These opponents have a combined winning percentage of .487, which is pretty deceiving, as seven of these teams sport a record of .500 or better. 37 of these games will be against NL East teams, and 72 of them against opponents in the Senior Circuit.
While a record of nine games over .500 is not much to complain about at this point in the season, many are disappointed with the Nationals season after all the preseason hype. Players, managers, and fans will all point to injuries, noting that only three starters in their fully healthy lineup have been playing every day. Meanwhile, the team still waits for Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth to return to the lineup as well as Stephen Strasburg‘s return to the starting rotation.
#Nats Full Strength Lineup:
— Matt Weyrich (@ByMattWeyrich) July 10, 2015
Span-DL
Rendon-DL
Werth-DL
Harper-MVP
Zim-DL
Escobar-D2D
Ramos-.258
Desi-.213
Pitchers:
Stras-DL
Zimm-Pat
Heading into the second half of the season, the Nats look to get healthier and take off, consequently running away with their third division title in four years. Standing in their way are six key series that the Nats’ season hinges upon. Take a look and see who they’re going to be up against and each series’ impact on the National League Pennant Race.
Next: Dodgers
Jul 9, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) works against the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers
The first three games out of the break are not going to be a walk in the park for the injured Washington lineup, as the Nats are set to face the NL West division leaders, Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39). Manager Don Mattingly has already released the expected starters for the series, sending out Clayton Kershaw (6-6, 2.85 ERA), Mike Bolsinger (4-3, 3.08), and Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39) for the three game set. The Nationals announced today that they will send Jordan Zimmermann to the mound Friday, Doug Fister Saturday, and Max Scherzer on Sunday.
Kershaw and Greinke make for one of the most formidable one-two punches in all of baseball. As the reigning NL Cy Young-winner and MVP, Clayton Kershaw is still the best pitcher on the planet, even if his numbers are down a little bit. Greinke, on the other hand, being a former Cy Young winner himself, is having the best season of his career. He entered the All-Star Break with the lowest ERA by any player since World War II.
With Matt Kemp long gone, the Dodgers’ lineup has searched elsewhere for run production, and boy, have they found it. The fourth-highest scoring offense in the National League sports stars such as Yasiel Puig (.261/.343/.429), Adrian Gonzalez (.283/.355/.520), and Justin Turner (.308/.377/.538). The story of the year for Los Angeles, however, has been 23-year old center field phenom Joc Pederson (.230/.364/.487), who leads all MLB rookies with 20 home runs and is third in RBI’s with 40.
Next: Mets
May 27, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets first baseman Lucas Duda (21) hits a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
New York Mets
With twelve games left against the Mets (47-42) in 2015, New York will be the Nats’ second most frequent opponent over the rest of the season, only behind the 38-51 Miami Marlins (13). The Mets own one of the scariest rotations in the sport, including the likes of Jacob deGrom (9-6, 2.14), Matt Harvey (8-6, 3.07), and Noah Syndergaard (4-4, 3.11). Owning the fifth best rotation ERA in the NL at 3.42, the Mets’ pitching has kept this ballclub afloat in the National League East.
While the Nationals have been hit hard by injuries, no one has been forced to swallow more losses than the New York Mets. Dillon Gee, Erik Goeddel, Steven Matz, Logan Verrett, Jack Leathersich, Rafael Montero, Buddy Carlyle, Jerry Blevins, Dilson Herrera, Travis d’Arnaud, Darrell Ceciliani, Anthony Recker, and David Wright are ALL currently on the Disabled List. With an offense that consistently struggles to put runners across the plate, injuries to the lineup have been far more fatal to New York than to Washington.
The only lineup that has scored less runs than the Mets in the National League this year is none other than the 29-62 Philadelphia Phillies. The lone bright spot, second baseman, Daniel Murphy (.277/.331/.405), is the only starter currently hitting above .256. First baseman Lucas Duda (.241/.345/.430) has failed to live up to preseason expectations thus far, as he leads the team with 91 strikeouts. With d’Arnaud and Wright nearing rehab starts, the Mets lineup could begin to catch fire if these injured stars are able to provide a spark upon their returns. However, until then, their winning ways will rely almost entirely upon their starting pitching.
Next: Pirates
Jun 30, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) talks to left fielder Starling Marte (6) during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates
The hottest team in baseball entered the All-Star Break winners of 14 of their last 16, including taking three of four against the team they are chasing in the NL Central, St. Louis Cardinals (56-33). The Pittsburgh Pirates (53-35) are playing better than anyone right now, despite having been swept by the Nats June 19th-21st at Nats Park. Their rotation, led by young stud Gerrit Cole (13-3, 2.30) and seasoned veteran A.J. Burnett (7-3, 2.11), has been lights out all season, posting the third best starters ERA in all of baseball (3.05).
Not to be forgotten is Pittsburgh’s shutdown bullpen, which has done its job to shorten games in absolutely dominant fashion. All-Star closer Mark Melancon (1.47, 29 saves) leads the league in saves, and underrated lefty Tony Watson (2-1, 2.09) is one of the best set-up men in the game.
The Pirates lineup, headlined by All-Star center fielder Andrew McCutchen (.295/.392/.500) and left fielder Starling Marte (.279/.328/.455), has been streaky at times, but they are always dangerous. While super utility man Josh Harrison’s (.279/.313/.384) current DL stint has hurt the team, their lineup still boasts four hitters batting over .278.
In their previous meeting earlier this season, the Nats held Pittsburgh to only three runs in the series. Behind dominant starts by Joe Ross, Max Scherzer, and Gio Gonzalez, including Scherzer’s no-hitter, the Nats were able to cool down the red hot Pirates, even after coming off a stretch in which they lost 15 of their last 22. No one else has been able to put a stop to this Pittsburgh ball club since, can the Nats do it again when they visit PNC Park for a four game series July 23-July 26?
Next: Giants
Jul 10, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) throws to the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning of their MLB baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco Giants
The defending champs were no match for the Nats in their first meeting this season, as Washington avenged their early postseason exit last October with a sweep of the San Francisco Giants (46-43) on July 3-5. A team that has been in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring runs and allowing them, it would be expected that this Giants team would be around .500 at the All-Star Break.
World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner (9-5, 3.33) has picked up right where he left off last postseason, leading the patched up Giants rotation in ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Tim Hudson (5-7, 4.68) and Tim Lincecum (7-4, 4.13) both currently sit on the Disabled List, although neither have been performing at the level in which the team hoped when they were healthy.
Buster Posey (.314/.381/.498) plays the centerpiece for the San Francisco offense that has five starters hitting .279 or higher. With Hunter Pence’s (.283/.320/.457) return from the DL, the lineup should receive an automatic boost, even with Nori Aoki (.317/.383/.385) sitting on the shelf because of a fractured fibula
Scheduled to play a four game series August 13th-16th at AT&T Park, the Nationals hope to have a few players returned from injury themselves before they have to face San Francisco again. In fact, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg are all expected to be back on the active roster by that time. While this is a different team from the one they faced in October a season ago, many of the key players on the roster have returned. Sweeping the defending world champions is no small feat, no matter the record they have on the season.
Next: Cardinals
Jun 28, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal (44) celebrates with catcher Yadier Molina (4) after defeating the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals (56-33) may hold baseball’s best record for now, but that title could be on its way over to Pittsburgh. The NL Central Division winner of each of the past three seasons, St. Louis has become accustomed to its team’s winning ways. However, after dropping three of four to the Pirates and nine of their last fourteen, the power in the NL may be shifting in another direction.
The Cardinals pitching staff lost Adam Wainwright for the year at the beginning of the season to an Achilles injury, and many thought losing the ace would be too much for the rotation to overcome. What has actually happened could not be more different. John Lackey (7-5, 2.99), Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.93), Carlos Martinez (10-3, 2.52), Lance Lynn (6-5, 2.90), and Jaime Garcia (3-3, 1.69) have been the best rotation in all of baseball, with each of them sporting an ERA under three. With Garcia hitting the Disabled List with a left groin injury, Tim Cooney (0-0, 4.34) is likely to fill in until his return.
The Cardinals’ lineup has never been known to put up stellar numbers, and this year has been no different. Second baseman and All-Star snub Kolten Wong (.280/.343/.434) has put together a solid eason in his second year in the majors. Matt Holliday (.303/.417/.421) looks to be returning off the Disabled List soon after straining his quad in June and should provide an immediate boost for the offense.
The Cards took two of three against the Nats in their first meeting this season back in April, although Washington’s one win was on a walk-off home run by Yunel Escobar in the 10th inning on April 21. They meet again August 31st-September 2nd at Busch Stadium, when both teams expect to be back to full health. This could be a potential playoff preview, and should prove to be a good series.
Next: Braves
Jul 1, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones (10) doubles in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Baltimore Orioles
The Beltway Battle may not mean much in terms of the Pennant Race, but in recent years, it has always been a dog fight between two top teams in the league. The Baltimore Orioles (44-44) may only be in 3rd place in the AL East, but sit only four games behind the 1st place New York Yankees (48-40), and 3.5 games back of the Houston Astros (49-42) in the Wild Card race.
The Orioles pitching staff has been league average thus far this season. While Ubaldo Jimenez (7-4, 2.81) has had a career resurrection and Wei-Yin Chen (4-5, 2.78) has performed steadily, Chris Tillman (6-7, 5.40) and Bud Norris (2-9, 6.86) have been massive disappointments for this Baltimore club. The bullpen, on the other hand, has been nothing short of fantastic, sporting two All Stars in closer Zach Britton (1.72, 23 saves) and lefty Darren O’Day (5-0, 1.07).
On the offensive side, the O’s live and die by the long ball, sitting fourth in the American League in home runs. Not a single member of the Orioles’ starting lineup is currently hitting above .300, but All-Stars Adam Jones (.281/.326/.490) and Manny Machado (.298/.361/.525) have put together nice seasons up to this point.
The September set with Baltimore (Sept. 21-23 at Nats Park) will be the Nats’ only interleague series in the second half of the season, as the team had already played the rest of their scheduled AL teams prior to the All-Star Break. With players scheduled to return soon and a Pennant Race that is sure to go down to the wire, it’s looking like a fun rest of the season for the Washington Nationals