Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Dodgers (7/17-7/19)
Jul 10, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder Joc Pederson (31) hits a one run RBI double against the Milwaukee Brewers during the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
After four days off, the Washington Nationals (48-39) will get the second half of their season started tonight when they begin a three game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39). Before the All-Star Break, the Nats took on their Beltway rivals, the Baltimore Orioles, and took two out of three.
However, the second half will not be easy for the Nats. Right out of the get go, they will face five very good pitchers over the next six games. They will get the Mets’ top three starters (Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard) next week, but first, let’s talk about Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and the Dodgers.
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Before the All-Star Break, Don Mattingly’s club went 7-4 in their first 11 games of July. Right now, they hold a 4.5 game lead on the San Francisco Giants in the NL West. The strength of this Dodgers’ team is with their top two aces in the rotation, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (who will start the final two games in this series).
However, Kershaw and Greinke have had to carry a rotation that has had its fair share of injuries. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been out since April due to shoulder surgery and Brandon McCarthy had Tommy John surgery. With a combination of Mike Bolsinger, Brett Anderson, and now Brandon Beachy behind their two aces, LA’s starters’ ERA is 3.19, which is third in the National League.
On offense, the Dodgers are fourth in the NL in runs scored (Nationals are fifth) and they have hit the most home runs in the NL (113). Their leading home run hitter is rookie centerfielder Joc Pederson. Pederson, who was the runner up in Monday’s Home Run Derby, is hitting .230 with 20 home runs, 40 RBI’s, and a .364 on-base percentage.
Two other offensive players to watch are second baseman Howie Kendrick (who leads the team in hits) and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is hitting .283 with 18 home runs and 55 RBI’s. He is only hitting .194 in the month of July, but five of his seven hits being home runs.
As for LA’s bullpen, they have a 3.56 ERA, which is ninth in the NL. Closer Kenley Jansen is 16-for-17 in save chances and has a 1.66 ERA, but it’s the eighth inning that has given LA fits. The Dodgers have a 3.68 ERA in the seventh inning or later and have given up the sixth most runs in the NL during those latter three innings.
Before tonight’s series gets underway, let’s take a look at who has the edge in these three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Bolsinger (4-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (8-5, 3.22) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN/WUSA9/MLB Network
Late Thursday afternoon, Don Mattingly chose to put Bolsinger in this spot instead of Kershaw, who will be pitching on Saturday. The 27-year-old right-hander ended his first half on a good note against the Brewers. In that start back on July 10, he went six innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out six, and walked one batter in a no-decision.
Wins have been tough to come by for Bolsinger this season. His last win came on June 8 against the Diamondbacks, which is a span of six starts. He has only given up three home runs this season, but teams are hitting .282 against him on the road as opposed to hitting .214 against him at Dodger Stadium.
After winning three of his first five starts, Bolsinger went 1-1 in six June starts with a 4.40 ERA. The one thing that might be in his favor tonight is that there is not one player in the Nationals lineup that has face him since this is his second season in the league after making nine starts with the Diamondbacks last season.
In Jordan Zimmermann’s last start of the first half, he had some issues with leaving pitches up in the zone against the Orioles, but he kept the damage to a minimum. He went five innings, gave up four runs on nine hits, struck out four, and walked none. Despite giving up four runs, Zimmermann still won his third straight start and he has not lost since June 17 (five starts).
By going only five innings on July 11, it snapped a streak of four straight starts in which the 29-year-old pitched into the seventh inning or later. In ten starts at home this season, Zimmermann is 4-3 with a 2.27 ERA. If he can keep his fastball down in the zone, a pitch that the O’s made a lot of hard contact against, he should have success in this outing.
In six starts against the Dodgers, Zimmermann is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA. However, he only gave up two runs in two starts against them last season. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins (.213, 8 HR, 29 RBI’s) is hitting .242 against him with two home runs and five RBI’s.
Advantage: Since the Nats are facing Kershaw and Greinke this weekend, this is a game that they need to get. They will need time to adjust to Bolsinger, but I do like Jordan Zimmermann to keep his good momentum going and to pick up yet another home win. While the Nats offense has been inconsistent, they should find a way to get the win for Zimmermann in this one.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the American League during the fifth inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Clayton Kershaw (6-6, 2.85) vs. Doug Fister (3-4, 4.08) – 4:05 PM ET, MASN and FOX Sports 1
Even though Kershaw hasn’t had his best season in 2015, he has still put together some good numbers. In his last 25 innings, he has given up a total of three earned runs. His final start before the break against the Phillies on July 8 was where he showed his dominance. He threw a complete game eight-hit shutout and struck out 13 batters on 123 pitches. However, he gave up two runs in the fifth inning of Tuesday’s All-Star Game and was the losing pitcher for the NL.
That win on July 8 was Kershaw’s first win since June 6 against the St. Louis Cardinals (five starts). At times, he has been hittable and the 27-year-old left-hander only has six wins, but he is third in innings pitched in NL and leads the league with strikeouts (160). Plus, his FIP is 2.39, which is second in the NL behind Max Scherzer.
In 11 appearances (10 starts) against the Nats, he is 7-2 with a 2.59 ERA. He has not lost to Washington in his last five starts with his last loss occurring in 2010. Bryce Harper is 1-for-6 against him, but that one hit was a home run (September 2, 2014).
Due to the rain out last Wednesday, this will be first start that Doug Fister will make since July 6 against the Reds. In that outing, he went six innings, gave up two runs (one earned run) on eight hits, struck out two, and walked one on 86 pitches. Even though Fister got the no-decision in that game, he is still allowing hitters to put the ball into the air.
Over his last three starts, Fister has had hitters hit ten or more flyball outs. The command has been better, but since the 31-year-old righty doesn’t get many strikeouts, he needs to induce more groundball outs in order to be more successful in this start. Fister hasn’t pitched in over a week, but he does have a 2.41 ERA in three starts this season on six or more days rest.
Fister has made just one start against the Dodgers, which occurred on September 2, 2014. He went five innings, gave up four runs (three earned runs) on ten hits, struck out two, and walked two in a loss. It would be his last loss of the regular season. Howie Kendrick is 6-for-23 against him with two doubles, a home run, and four RBI’s.
Advantage: While I expect Fister to keep this game close, this is one of those games where the Nats are going to miss having their regular offensive guys. Kershaw has not been his Cy Young/MVP self from last season, but this is a tall order for Fister to beat him. Dodgers get a crooked inning in this one and win the game 7-3.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; National League pitcher Zack Greinke (21) of the Los Angeles Dodgers throws against the American League during the second inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39) vs. Max Scherzer (10-7, 2.11), 1:35 PM ET, MASN/WUSA9/TBS
This is the matchup that stacks up two All-Stars who are both in the running for the NL Cy Young Award. While Scherzer was not able to pitch in the All-Star Game, Greinke got the start for the National League. While Greinke did give up a leadoff home run to Mike Trout, he did strike out four batters.
That home run does not count against Greinke’s scoreless inning streak, which currently stands at 35.2. The last start in which the 31-year-old right-hander gave up a run was June 13 against the San Diego Padres. Since then, he has surrendered a total of 16 hits in his last five starts. This includes an eight-inning, one-hit, eight strikeout performance against the Phillies on July 9.
Greinke leads the league in ERA, is second in innings pitched, and second in WHIP. This is a big year for Greinke as he has an opt-out clause in his contract that he can exercise at the end of this season. If he can continue the dominance he has shown of late, he will get a lot of money this winter. In five starts against the Nats, he is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. Wilson Ramos is 2-for-4 against him with a double.
As for Scherzer, he was able to bounce back after a rough outing against the Reds by nearly throwing a complete game against the Orioles on July 12. In that outing, he went 8.2 innings, gave up two Adam Jones solo home runs on four hits, struck out seven, and did not walk a batter on 115 pitches.
While the Nats’ ace has not had double digit strikeouts in his last four starts, he has showed pinpoint control. The 30-year-old right-hander has not walked a batter in his last five starts. At home this season, he is 4-4 with a 2.83 ERA (1.57 on the road), but he has just five walks in eight starts. Will Scherzer fare better this time after losing the battle of aces to Johnny Cueto on July 7?
In nine games (seven starts) against the Dodgers, Scherzer is 2-3 with a 3.51 ERA. However, he was 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA against LA in two starts with the Tigers last season. Left fielder Andre Ethier (.281, 10 HR, 31 RBI’s) is 6-for-21 against him with a home run and three RBI’s.
Advantage: In this game, scoring opportunities will be minimal if both pitchers are on their A games, especially with the dominance both pitchers have shown this season. However, I like the Dodgers offense a bit more than the Nats in this one. Los Angeles takes two out of three with a 2-1 win.