Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Marlins (7/28-7/30)
Jul 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Miami Marlins left fielder Christian Yelich (21) celebrates with first base coach Perry Hill (7) after a single in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
The ten game road trip did not get off to a good start for the Washington Nationals (52-45). They lost three out of four games to the Pittsburgh Pirates after sweeping Pittsburgh back in June. That being said, shortstop Ian Desmond had three home runs in the series and center fielder Michael Taylor had home runs in the final two games, including a four-hit game on Saturday in the Nats’ only win.
Despite the series loss, the Nationals are starting to get healthier. Anthony Rendon made his return to the lineup on Saturday and went 1-for-5 in two games against the Pirates. One other player will be joining Rendon for this upcoming series in Miami. Jayson Werth, who has been rehabbing at high-A Potomac and triple-A Syracuse, will be back with the team tonight, according to James Wagner of the Washington Post:
Jayson Werth, who went 11 for 30 in nine rehab games, is rejoining Nats in Miami. He’s been out since May 15 with fractured wrist.
— James Wagner (@JamesWagnerWP) July 27, 2015
In addition to Werth, the Nats are expected to get Ryan Zimmerman back tonight as well, according to William Ladson of MLB.com. Zimmerman has been out of the lineup since June 9 due to plantar fasciitis.
The Nats will enter this series two games up on the New York Mets in the NL East and the two teams will face each other in a three game series this weekend at Citi Field. Before that, Washington heads down to Florida to take on the Miami Marlins (41-58), a team that is figuring out which pieces they are going to sell before the July 31 Trade Deadline.
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Washington has lost four out of six games against the Marlins and they were swept by Miami at Marlins Park back in April. However, that was when Mike Redmond was manager and when Giancarlo Stanton was healthy. Stanton will not play in this series and he has been out since June 26 to a broken hamate bone in his left wrist.
Second baseman Dee Gordon has been out since July 11 with a thumb injury, but there is a chance that he can play in this series. Gordon is hitting .481 against the Nats this season with one RBI. Without Stanton and Gordon, the player who has hit the best for Miami this month in terms of run production is first baseman Justin Bour. Bour has 16 RBI’s in 20 games this month.
As for Miami’s starting pitching, Jose Fernandez is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA since returning to the Marlins back on July 2. As for the rest of the rotation, they have starters that teams would want such as Mat Latos. Latos, who won’t pitch in this series, is 1-2 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this month.
The Marlins started making moves last Friday when they traded former closer Steve Cishek to the St. Louis Cardinals. Even with the Cishek trade, Miami’s bullpen has a ERA of 3.25, which is fifth in the National League. A.J. Ramos, their closer, is 16-for-20 in saves with a ERA of 1.48 this season.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 22, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (8-5, 3.30 ERA) vs. Jose Fernandez (3-0, 2.77) – 7:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2
It has been an up and down month for Jordan Zimmermann in July, but the 29-year-old right-hander had a good start last time out against the Mets. In seven innings of work, he gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked none in a no-decision. All three runs he gave up occurred in the fourth inning.
Remember, this was the first start Zimmermann had since his outing got cut short due to faulty lights against the Dodgers. In four starts this month, he is 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA. He has not beaten the Marlins in two starts this season, but he has a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings and not has had any walks.
In 19 career starts against Miami, Zimmermann is 7-3 with a 3.22 ERA. The Marlins’ hitter to watch in this game is infielder Martin Prado. Prado is 9-for-23 against him with three doubles and two RBI’s.
As for Fernandez, he is just the latest ace that the Nationals have had to encounter in the last couple of weeks. Since returning from Tommy John surgery on July 2, the 22-year-old right-hander has shown flashes of dominance that he had in 2013 and 2014.
In his four starts, he has thrown six innings or more in each game and has given up no more than three runs. In his last start against the Diamondbacks on July 22, he went seven innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out 11, and walked two.
One of the impressive stats about Fernandez is his dominance at home. In 22 career starts at home, he is 14-0 with a 1.17 ERA and he has held his opponents to a .171 batting average. In three starts against the Nats, he is 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA. Jayson Werth is 1-for-8 against him, but that one hit was a home run.
Advantage: This game on paper looks to be one where runs will be at a premium. Zimmermann has pitched well for the Nats, but Fernandez had not shown any signs of slowing down since coming back from injury. While Jayson Werth will be back in the lineup along with Rendon, the Nationals will lose a close game against one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Next: Tomorrow's Starter
Jul 23, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Doug Fister (3-6, 4.50) vs. Tom Koehler (8-6, 3.16) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN2
Coming into this game tomorrow night, Fister is going to be looking to get his season back on track. In his last start against the Pirates, Fister went five innings, gave up four runs on nine hits, struck out six, and walked one.
The 31-year-old left-hander has gone 0-3 in his last four starts and has given up four runs or more in four of his last six outings. His velocity has been better, but opponents have been hitting the ball hard (.307 batting average against) and racking up the extra-base hits.
Even though Fister has been struggling, he has a good record lifetime against the Marlins. He is 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA in four games (three starts). Ichiro Suzuki is 2-for-7 against him with a double and a RBI.
When you look at Tom Koehler’s numbers, he has been the exact opposite of Fister. The 29-year-old right-hander has given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last ten outings. In his last start against the Padres, he went seven innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out seven batters, and walked four in the victory.
While Koehler has kept the opponents off the board, he has walked 39 batters in 19 games this season. That being said, he has been a good pitcher at home this season (4-1, 1.68 ERA in eight games). One of those wins came against the Nats on April 25, when he gave up no runs on six hits in 7.1 innings.
His other start against the Nationals came on May 6 at Nats Park. In that game, Koehler gave up five runs on seven hits in six innings of work, and gave up all three home runs to Bryce Harper. He is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA in seven career starts against Washington. Harper is 5-for-18 against him with four home runs and six RBI’s.
Advantage: I expect that this game is going to be the highest scoring game out of the three. Koehler has pitched well at home this season, but this could be the game Harper breaks out when you consider that he has not hit a home run in his last nine games coming into tonight’s game. If Harper can hit one or two home runs in this one, I like the Nats to win a 7-5 kind of game.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Jul 24, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (10-8, 2.33) vs. Dan Haren (7-6, 3.51) – 12:10 PM, MASN and MLB Network
For the second time in his last four starts, Max Scherzer gave up five earned runs in an outing. On July 24 against the Pirates, he gave up those five runs on seven hits, struck out eight, and walked one in a no-decision. The Nats’ ace was unable to hold a 4-2 lead as he gave up two home runs in the bottom of the fifth. The three home runs were the most Scherzer has given up in a start this season.
It’s been an up and down month for the Nats’ ace. In five starts in July, Scherzer is 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA. That would be the highest ERA he has had in any month this season.
Back on May 6, Scherzer went seven innings, gave up five runs on ten hits, struck out ten, and walked none in a win over the Marlins. The one mistake he made in that game came in the top of the eighth when he gave up a three-run homer to Stanton. Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.54 ERA in two career starts against Miami. Prado is 6-for-10 against him with a double.
This season, Dan Haren has been an innings eater for Dan Jennings’ club. The 34-year-old right-hander has pitched into the sixth inning or later in his last 13 outings. In his last start against the Padres on July 24, Haren went six innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, and struck out three in a loss.
Haren is a fly ball pitcher, which can cause him to fall victim to the long ball. In his last two starts, Haren has given up five home runs and he has given up 20 home runs this season. That being said, he has pitched well in Miami this season. In ten home starts, he is 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA.
Against the Nationals, the right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.85 ERA in eight games (seven starts). On April 26, Haren went five innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out three, and walked three in a 6-2 Marlins win. Werth is 5-for-13 against Haren with a RBI.
Advantage: While Haren has done a good job eating innings for the Marlins this season, Scherzer is a pitcher who rarely puts two good starts together. If he is able to locate his fastball, he should have success against Miami. This is a series that the Nationals should take two out of three in and they have the right pitcher on the mound to try to accomplish that in a proverbial rubber game.