Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Mets (7/31-8/2)
Jul 28, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets first baseman Lucas Duda (21) rounds third after hitting a two-run home run against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
For the second time in two weeks, the Washington Nationals (54-46) will play a three game series against their NL East rivals, the New York Mets (52-50). The Nats took two out of three games from the Mets last week at Nats Park, but a lot has changed for both of these teams.
For one, the Nationals’ lineup does have Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth back in it, something that the Mets have not seen this season in either of the first ten games (Washington is 6-4 in those games). Plus, Washington acquired closer Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies this week and he will come into Citi Field after getting his first save with the Nats yesterday.
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On the Mets side, their bullpen features a familiar face. Former Nationals’ setup man Tyler Clippard is now the eighth inning guy in Flushing after the Mets acquired him from the Oakland A’s for pitching prospect Casey Meisner. The Clippard acquisition ends up being huge for the Mets, who have had issues with their bullpen as of late. Jenrry Mejia got suspended 162 games on Monday for his second PED violation and closer Jeurys Familia has yet to record a save since the All-Star Break (0-for-3).
As far as the offense goes, New York did make some small upgrades by trading for infielders Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson from the Braves last Friday and they did call up outfield prospect Michael Conforto to take over for Michael Cuddyer, who is currently on the disabled list. However, New York was not able to acquire that big bat for the offense.
On Wednesday night, there were reports that the Mets had completed a trade that would have sent center fielder Carlos Gomez back to New York in exchange for shortstop Wilmer Flores and starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (out due to Tommy John Surgery), but that deal was not completed.
Even though the Gomez deal did not get done, the Mets were able to trade for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes right before the 4 PM ET trade deadline this afternoon. The deal was first reported by Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Cespedes is hitting .293 this season with 18 home runs and 61 RBI’s. However, he will not be in the lineup tonight.
One of the bright spots as of late for Terry’ Collins club has been first baseman Lucas Duda (.240, 18 HR, 45 RBI’s). Duda is 8-for-23 over the last seven days with six home runs and seven RBI’s. He has eight home runs this month, despite having a .188 average at the plate.
It is the exact same three pitching matchups that there were last week as Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard will take the ball for the Mets. This time around, the Nationals head into Citi Field with a three game lead in the division. If they are able to take two of three, they wound end their ten game road trip with a 5-5 record.
Before the series starts tonight, here is a pitching matchup breakdown of the three games as well as answers to some questions I asked Daniel Abriano, the editor at Rising Apple, to get the Mets perspective on this series:
Next: Rising Apple Q A
Jul 25, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets left fielder Michael Conforto (30) runs after hitting a double during the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Ricky: What is the level of optimism for Mets fans heading into this series, despite losing 2 out of 3 games to the Nats last week?
Daniel: I think it would’ve been higher had the fan base not experienced the double gut-punch of the non-Carlos Gomez deal and the blown 7-1 lead/rain delay fiasco on Thursday, but with the Mets trailing the Nats by just three games, I think the fans are still pretty optimistic about their chances of sticking around in the race. Despite an uninspiring series against the Padres leading up to this weekend, this is still the biggest series the Mets have played since 2008. I think both the fans and the team will be up for it.
R: Do you feel the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson moves are enough as the offense is currently constituted? (Question asked before Cespedes trade)
D: No. The Mets need to make one more move before the deadline to help the offense, and the three names out there that would make a difference are Jay Bruce (who they’re rumored to be discussing), Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. While the Mets are getting some guys healthy and getting a nice year from Curtis Granderson, their contribution from center field this season — with Juan Lagares playing hurt — has been quite bad. Acquiring one of the above players would likely mean Granderson moving to center, which would be less than ideal for the defense. However, it would give them another legit bat for the middle of the lineup. And it would allow for the recently called up Michael Conforto to have some pressure taken off him.
R: After looking at the bullpen moves that both the Nationals and Mets have made (Papelbon and Clippard), who has the better bullpen right now, in your opinion?
D: The Nats, and I don’t think it’s very close. I don’t believe Jeurys Familia is about to go into a tailspin after blowing three straight saves, and Tyler Clippard is a great addition as the setup man. But the loss of Jenrry Mejia (who is an absolute imbecile) for the season due to his second drug test puts the Mets back in the position they were in before they acquired Clippard. On September 1, the Mets’ bullpen might be revamped, though, with Jerry Blevins hopefully back and with Vic Black and Josh Smoker potentially joining them from Triple-A Las Vegas to replace Alex Torres and Carlos Torres.
R: Lucas Duda has struggled for the Mets at first base this season. Why has he struggled this season and do you think he can turn it around this year?
D: Duda struggled up until recently, but he’s picked it up in a big way lately, hitting six homers over the last five games. He’s on pace to finish with 29 homers while hitting .240/.341/.458, and I expect his average and OBP to rise. I think he went into a tailspin for two reasons that are connected. There was no protection in the lineup which led to pitchers throwing him tons of offspeed pitches. Eventually, Duda got tired of being patient and got back into bad habits by chasing pitches out of the strike zone. He’ll still do that on occasion, even when he’s going well, but it’s something he improved dramatically in 2014. And it looks like he’s getting back on track in that regard as this season continues.
R: Recently, New York called up outfield prospect Michael Conforto. Give Nats fans a scouting report on what to expect from Conforto.
D: Conforto is a polished hitter who will display patience at the plate, hit to all fields (sometimes for power), and make lots of solid contact. In the field, he’s improved to the point where he’ll flash above average in left field with solid range and a strong arm. Lots of fans and prospect experts (including Keith Law) felt that the Mets slow-played Conforto as he advanced through the minors. While he’s cooled off since his 4-hit game last week, he hasn’t looked over-matched. He’s still working deep counts and getting on base via walks.
R: When does the team expect Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright back in the lineup?
D: Travis d’Arnaud will be active on Friday and should be in the starting lineup. Anthony Recker has been sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas, meaning Kevin Plawecki will serve as d’Arnaud’s backup. David Wright was recently cleared for baseball activity after nearly three months on the shelf due to spinal stenosis. He’ll head to Port St. Lucie after the weekend to continue his rehab and could be in rehab games within the week. If that comes to fruition, it’s conceivable Wright could return to the Mets around the third week of August.
R: X-Factor for New York heading into this series? Who wins the series and why?
D: Matt Harvey. Even though it’s supposed to take a full season of pitching to return to full strength after Tommy John surgery, most Mets fans thought Harvey would be immune to that. And while he’s been dominant at times, the swing-and-miss stuff has come and gone. Harvey has been more locked in lately, and I think the Mets will get a vintage Harvey performance on Friday night and win. It’ll energize them and result in a series victory as they take two of three.
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 25, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.83) vs. Matt Harvey (9-7, 3.16) – 7:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN and SNY
In a rotation that features Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann, you can make the case that Gio Gonzalez has been the Nats’ best pitcher in the month of July. In four starts this month, the 29-year-old left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and has only walked six batters over the course of 24 innings.
In his last start against the Pirates on July 25, Gonzalez went five innings, gave up three runs (one earned run) on five hits, struck out five, and did not walk a batter on only 74 pitches. Gonzalez did run into some trouble in the sixth inning, which was the reason for the early exit.
That being said, Gonzalez’s command has been sharp lately. He has induced ten or more groundball outs in five of his last seven starts, and he has given up two earned runs or fewer in his last five outings.
Back on July 20, Gonzalez got the win against the Mets when he gave up two runs on six hits over six innings, striking out four batters, and walking three. He is 2-0 against the Mets with a 1.38 ERA and has a career record of 9-4 against New York with a 2.88 ERA (6-1, 1.66 at Citi Field). Juan Lagares is 10-for-22 against Gonzalez with three doubles, a triple, a home run, and four RBI’s.
While the Mets scored 15 runs in Matt Harvey’s last start, the 26-year-old right-hander was able to put together a quality outing. Against the Dodgers, Harvey went seven innings, gave up two runs (two solo home runs) on six hits, struck out four, and walked one.
It’s been an up and down season for Harvey. The main issue since coming back from Tommy John surgery has been his control. In four starts this month, Harvey has 14 walks over the course of 26 innings. Against the Nats on July 20, Harvey struggled in the first three innings, but was able to finish seven innings due to a low pitch count. He gave up five runs (four earned runs) on five hits, struck out three, and walked four in the loss.
Despite that rough outing, Harvey has a good track record against the Nats. This season, he is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts against Washington. Over the course of his career, he is 3-2 with a 1.34 ERA in seven starts. Ryan Zimmerman is 4-for-14 against him with a home run, but Bryce Harper is 0-for-14 with seven strikeouts.
Advantage: While Gonzalez has been great for the Nats this month, this is a game that the Mets need to have. They had the bad situation involving the Gomez trade and then they blew a six run lead yesterday in a loss to San Diego. This is the kind of game where Harvey usually shines in and the Nationals have not usually had a good track record against him. I do think this game is low scoring, but because of the inconsistencies in Harvey’s game as of late, particularly the command of his slider, I am going to take Gio Gonzalez in this one in a 3-2 kind of game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 26, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Ross (2-3, 2.03) vs. Jacob deGrom (10-6, 2.05) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN
For the third consecutive outing, Joe Ross goes up against a pitcher that is one of the leading candidates for the Cy Young award. Despite facing quality pitching, Ross has handled himself well. In his last start against the Pirates on July 26, he went six innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 78 pitches.
Since the 22-year-old right-hander made his return to the rotation, he has given up five runs over 11.1 innings, but he has been able to keep the Nats in every game that he pitches in. He has continued to show great control all season long as he has walked only three batters in 34.2 innings.
He did pitch well against deGrom back on July 21 when he gave up only one run through the first six innings. However, he allowed the first two runners of the inning to reach base and Aaron Barrett gave up a pinch-hit two-run single to Eric Campbell, which led to Ross getting the loss. Ross did strike out four batters and did not walk one in the loss.
When you talk about Jacob deGrom, he continues to show why he is the ace of this Mets rotation. He went up against Zack Greinke and his 43.2 inning scoreless streak last time out and he got the better of him. Against the Dodgers on July 26, he went 7.2 innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out eight, and walked two in a no-decision.
In four starts this month, the 27-year-old right-hander has given up a combined total of five runs. Over his last three starts, he has 26 strikeouts to three walks. Currently, deGrom’s ERA of 2.05 is second in the National League, behind only Greinke and his 1.37.
On July 21, deGrom went six innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out eight, and did not walk a batter in the win over the Nats. The only mistake he made came in the bottom of the fifth inning when Wilson Ramos hit a two-rum homer to right.
Against the Nationals, deGrom is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four career starts (1-2, 3.63 this season). Ramos is 3-for-8 against him with a double, the aforementioned home run, and four RBI’s.
Advantage: While Ross has been able to hold his own against some of the best, deGrom is on too good of a roll right now. Yes, the Nationals have had success against him, but deGrom has shown great control of late and has become the ace ahead of Matt Harvey. Plus, he has a 1.48 ERA in ten home starts this season. The Mets take the second game of this series.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Jul 28, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (8-6, 3.36) vs. Noah Syndergaard (5-5, 2.70) – 8:08 PM ET, ESPN
Last time out against the Marlins and Jose Fernandez, Jordan Zimmermann put together a quality outing, but could not get the win. On July 28, Zimmermann went six innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, struck out two, and walked two.
It was an up and down month of July for Zimmermann. The 29-year-old went 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA, but he still showed his usual control. He struck out 23 batters and walked four in 29 innings. However, since coming out of the All-Star Break, he is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts.
Against the Mets on July 22, Zimmermann went seven innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out six, and did not walk a batter in a no-decision. The only inning where the Mets were able to score was the fourth inning. Those runs came on a Kirk Nieuwenhuis two-run double and Kevin Plawecki RBI single.
When you look at Zimmermann’s career numbers against the Mets, he is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA in 22 career starts and he is 5-2 with a 2.75 ERA in ten starts at Citi Field. This season, in two starts at home, he is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA. Daniel Murphy is hitting .339 (19-for-56) with three home runs and eight RBI’s.
In his last start against San Diego, Noah Syndergaard was able to control his pitches and had some of his dominant stuff. On July 28, he went eight innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out nine, and did not walk a batter. He was perfect through six innings until Wil Venable led off the seventh inning with a base hit.
During the month of July, the 22-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 1.32 ERA in four starts. He had 38 strikeouts to ten walks in 34 innings and held opponents to a .161 opponents’ batting average. Syndergaard has been comfortable pitching at Citi Field this season. He is 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA in seven starts.
Even though his start against San Diego was impressive, Syndergaard showed some grit in his outing against Washington on July 22. Despite walking five batters, he gave up only one run on five hits in five innings. He was in line for the win, but Bobby Parnell gave up the game-tying single to Michael Taylor in the bottom of the eighth.
Advantage: The Nationals made a small statement when they beat these three Mets starters at home last week. However, they have a chance to make a larger statement if they could win two at Citi Field this week. Both pitchers have showed dominance and inconsistency at times this month, but I’m going to go with Syndergaard and his fastball to have the slight edge in this game. The Nats will still leave Citi Field with a two game lead, but this is a must win series for the Mets if they want to stay confident about their NL East hopes.