Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Diamondbacks (8/3-8/6)
Jul 29, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) hits a two-RBI single against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
For the first time since July 22, the Washington Nationals (54-49) will be playing a home game tonight as they begin a seven game homestand. However, Matt Williams’ club comes in reeling. Despite getting Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman back, the Nats went 3-7 over the course of a ten game road trip.
The road trip culminated with the team losing its sole lead in the NL East lead as the New York Mets swept them in a three game series at Citi Field. The Nationals scored five runs during the three games against Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Two of those came via solo home runs from Rendon and Yunel Escobar last night.
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The first of two opponents during this homestand for the Nats will be the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-53). Washington took two of three from Arizona at Chase Field in May, a series that ended with a Michael Taylor pinch-hit grand slam in the ninth inning of the rubber game. Arizona lost two out of three games against the Houston Astros over the weekend, but they did end the month of July with a 13-11 record. Currently, the D’Backs are nine games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
One of the main criticisms of Arizona’s squad lately is that general manager Dave Stewart did not make one move, buying or selling, at the trade deadline. Arizona was not expected to contend this season in the NL West, but one player who has kept them close to a .500 record is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt is part of an offense that is in the top ten in the league in runs scored, batting average, and on-base percentage. The 27-year-old is hitting .342 with 22 home runs, a league leading 77 RBI’s, and a league leading 83 walks. While he has hit over .300 in every month this season, he only had two home runs in July.
Another hitter to watch on Chip Hale’s team is All-Star center fielder A.J. Pollock. While Pollock missed yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury, the 27-year-old is hitting .305 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI’s this year.
On the mound, Arizona has struggled to find consistent starting pitching. Their starters’ ERA of 4.52 is the third highest in the National League, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite that, Wednesday’s starter, Rubby De La Rosa, has eight wins in his first season in the National League.
While the starters have struggled, the bullpen has not been bad. The 3.33 relievers’ ERA is seventh in the NL, just behind the Nationals (3.28). Brad Ziegler has settled into the closer role after Addison Reed struggled to start the season. The 35-year-old has saved 18 games in 20 chances and has a 1.18 ERA.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the four pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jul 23, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Zack Godley (2-0, 2.25 ERA) v. Doug Fister (4-6, 4.39) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Godley was recently promoted to the Major Leagues and made his debut on July 23 against the Brewers. Before joining the D’Backs, Godley began the season at high-A where he went 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 starts. After getting three starts in double-A, the player who was part of the deal that sent catcher Miguel Montero to the Cubs got the call.
The 25-year-old right-hander has thrown six innings in each of his first two starts and given up a total of three runs. Against the Mariners on July 28, he gave up those three runs on seven hits, struck out four, and walked three on 94 pitches. According to Fangraphs, Godley has a fastball that averages 92 miles per hour, a cutter, a curveball, and changeup.
As for Doug Fister, the Nats’ right-hander got his first win since June 25 in his last start against the Miami Marlins. The 31-year-old went six innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out four, and walked one in the win.
When you look at that start more closely, it was the first time Fister did not allow ten or more flyball outs since June 18. While the groundball outs are still not where you want them, but the amount of home runs he has given up have come down. In three of his last four starts, he has not given up a single home run.
Fister made one start against the Diamondbacks last season. In that game on May 14 (his second start of the season), he went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out six, and did not walk a batter in a no-decision. Second baseman Aaron Hill (.218, 4 HR, 24 RBI’s) is 3-for-10 against Fister with two home runs and three RBI’s.
Advantage: With the Nationals facing so many elite pitchers over the last couple of weeks, this may be the game that their offense turns it around. While Godley has pitched well for Arizona and should keep his team in the game, I like the Nats to adjust to Godley around the fourth and fifth inning and give Doug Fister enough run support to get the win.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 30, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Corbin (2-3, 3.21) vs. Max Scherzer (11-8, 2.22) – 7:05 PM, MASN
This start tomorrow night will be Corbin’s sixth start since returning from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of last season. Two years ago, Corbin was an All-Star in the National League. He went 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA in 2013, but he had a stretch in the first half of that season when he went 11-1 in 19 starts with a 2.35 ERA.
The 26-year-old left fielder has shown good command in five starts as he has only walked five batters. In four of his five outings, he has given up two runs or fewer. Against the Mariners on July 29, Corbin went six innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out six, and walked two in the win.
However, he has not thrown more than 89 pitches in any start this year. In three starts against Washington, Corbin is 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA. Jayson Werth is 2-for-5 against him with a home run and three RBI’s.
For the second time this season, Max Scherzer will be going up against his former team. In his first start against Arizona on May 11, Scherzer went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out six, and walked one in a 11-1 Nats win.
In his last start against the Marlins on July 30, Scherzer did walk three batters (a season-high), but he kept Miami off the scoreboard. In seven innings, he gave up no runs on three hits and struck out six batters on 109 pitches. He got two crucial double plays during the game to help his cause in winning a 1-0 game.
August should be a better month for Scherzer than July was. The 31-year-old is coming off his worst month of the season in July. In six starts, he went 2-3 with a 3.40, giving up five earned runs in two of those games. That being said, his strikeout to walk ratio (42:5) was still very good.
Against Arizona in his career, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.162, 2 HR, 6 RBI’s) is 5-for-12 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: This pitching matchup is the best of the four games because of the talent Corbin has shown in his career. The problem for him in this game is that the Nationals have done a better job lately of working up the pitch count against the likes of Jose Fernandez and Jacob deGrom. If that trend holds, the Nats might be able to do just enough to get Max Scherzer a win.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Jul 31, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez (47) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Rubby De La Rosa (8-5, 4.49) vs. Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.75) – 7:05 PM, MASN2
It’s been an up-and-down season for De La Rosa, but the 26-year-old right-hander has the most wins and strikeouts of any Arizona pitcher in the rotation. In five starts during the month of July, he went 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and had 16 strikeouts to 11 walks.
Despite those average numbers, De La Rosa has looked strong since coming out of the All-Star Break. In three starts since then, the former Red Sox pitcher is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA. He is a different pitcher away from Chase Field this season. Over the course of 11 road starts, he is 2-4 with a 5.14 ERA in ten games (6-1, 4.11 ERA in 10 home games).
De La Rosa faced the Nationals this season back on May 12. In that game, he went seven innings, gave up four runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked two in a 14-6 Arizona win. Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 that night with a home run and two RBI’s.
While Gio Gonzalez held the Mets to one run in his last start on July 31, he was not able to go deep into the game because of that command. In that start, Gonzalez went 4.2 innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out six, and walked four (tied for a season-high) in a no-decision.
Despite that rough start last Friday, Gonzalez was the best pitcher during the month of July for the Nationals. In five starts, the 29-year-old left-hander went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and held opponents to a .241 batting average. At Nats Park this season, Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in eight starts (3-3, 4.80 away ERA in 11 starts).
Back on May 13, Gonzalez had a rough outing against the D’Backs, which included a mound visit where manager Matt Williams had some stern words for him. In five innings, Gonzalez gave up five runs on nine hits, struck out three, and walked two in a no-decision. He is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in four starts against Arizona. Goldschmidt is 4-for-6 with a double, triple, and RBI.
Advantage: Both of these pitchers have showed inconsistency at times this season, so this game could go either way. This one will go down to the bullpens, which could be a problem considering Matt Williams’ mismanagement of the ‘pen lately. That being said, the Drew Storen–Jonathan Papelbon combination should be enough for Washington to get a close win here.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Jul 26, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (58) throws a pitch in the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Jeremy Hellickson (7-7, 4.95) vs. Joe Ross (2-3, 3.00) – 4:05 PM, MASN
While Hellickson had a rough outing in his last start against the Astros, he has shown signs of improvement this season. In that game against Houston on August 1, Hellickson gave up six earned runs (seven runs) on seven hits, struck out two, and walked two against a good lineup.
Despite that bad outing, the 28-year-old right-hander had a strong July. In four starts, he went 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA and gave up no more than two runs in any starts. He had five walks and held opponents to a .200 batting average. That being said, he is 2-4 with a 5.94 ERA in ten games this season on the road (5-3, 4.03 in ten home starts).
Hellickson did face the Nationals on May 13 and got a no-decision. In that game, he went 5.2 innings, gave up four runs on four hits, struck out three, and walked four (a season-high). Yunel Escobar is 5-for-19 against him with a home run and a RBI.
As for Joe Ross, he has not won a game since returning to the rotation, but he has still had a couple strong outings. He has given up seven runs in those three games in which he has faced off against Jacob deGrom (twice) and Gerrit Cole.
Back on August 1, the 22-year-old right-hander went 6.1 innings, gave up two runs (two Lucas Duda home runs) on four hits, struck out six, and walked one in a no-decision. Ross’ command of all his pitches have been on point all season as he has walked four batters in 39 innings of work.
However, the one downside to Ross is that he has not been able to go deep into games. Even though he was only at 84 pitches heading into the seventh, the 92 pitches Ross threw against the Mets were the most he has had since returning to the Major League rotation. Plus, keep in mind, he only threw as many as five innings in a start with triple-A Syracuse.
Advantage: While a four game sweep would be huge for the Nationals after their recent road struggles, Arizona will salvage the series with a win in this game as the Nationals have only scored five runs in Ross’ last three games. Even though Hellickson struggled against Houston, you have to think that start was a blip rather than a trend after his strong July.