Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Rockies (8/7-8/9)
Jul 17, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres catcher Derek Norris (R) steals third during the third inning ahead of the throw to Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
While the recent series against the Arizona Diamondbacks wasn’t the greatest for the Washington Nationals (56-51) were able to salvage a split from the D’Backs thanks to a 8-3 win yesterday. While there were some good moments in the series, including Wilson Ramos’ game-winning two-run single in the bottom of the eighth on Tuesday and another good pitching performance from Joe Ross yesterday, the series had its negative moments.
On Wedneday, the bullpen gave up the final nine runs of the game and Matt Williams had to go to Tyler Moore to finish the game. That led to the Nats’ manager having to call a team meeting before yesterday’s win. After the win Thursday, Williams announced that it will be Doug Fister to go the bullpen as Stephen Strasburg will return to the rotation on Saturday.
Coming into this weekend’s series, the Nationals trail the New York Mets by 1.5 games in the NL East and the Chicago Cubs by three games for the second NL Wild Card. Before the team heads out West for a ten game road trip, the Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies (45-61) for a three-game series. The Rockies, who are in last place in the NL West, are a team that has gone through some recent changes, including trading away their superstar shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki.
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Back on July 28, the Rockies traded Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jose Reyes, and three pitching prospect (Miguel Castro, Jeff Hoffman, and Jesus Tinoco). Since joining the Rockies, Reyes is hitting .207 with three RBI’s in seven games. However, when you talk about this Rockies’ team, the conversation begins with their offense.
This season, Walt Weiss’ club is fourth in runs scored, second in batting average, and second in slugging percentage. Third baseman and All-Star Nolan Arenado is hitting .273 with 26 home runs, 80 RBI’s, and has a .553 slugging percentage. Another All-Star, second baseman D.J. Lehmaieu, is hitting .322 this season and has a .371 average since the All-Star Break (.457 on-base). Left fielder Carlos Gonzalez (.279, 22 HR, 56 RBI’s) is hitting .375 with nine home runs since the break.
The problem for the Rockies has been pitching. While they recently called up one of their top pitching prospects, Jon Gray, their starters’ ERA of 5.26 is tied with the Phillies for the worst in baseball. The bullpen is not much better, as the team’s 4.53 ERA is the worst in the NL. With Latroy Hawkins now in Toronto, John Axford has been the closer, but he has blown five saves this season and has not saved a game since July 10.
With that being said, let’s take a look at who has the edge in the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Aug 2, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (27) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Jorge De La Rosa (7-4, 4.87 ERA) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (8-7, 3.54) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Jorge De La Rosa is the pitcher with the most experience in the Rockies’ rotation, be has had an up-and-down season. Nevertheless, he is coming into this start with some confidence. After giving up six runs in back-to-back outings, the 34-year-old left-hander put together a good start against the St. Louis Cardinals.
In that outing on August 2, De La Rosa went 6.2 innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out four, and walked none in his first victory since July 5. The problem for De La Rosa all season has been his command. Despite not walking a batter against the Cardinals, his 46 walks are seventh in the National League.
This season, the left-hander is 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in eight road starts (2-2, 6.62 in ten home starts). His opponents’ batting average against him on the road is .216 (.279 at Coors Field). Against the Nats, he is 5-2 in eight career starts with a 4.07 ERA. Ryan Zimmerman is 4-for-14 against him with two doubles, a home run, and four RBI’s.
As for Jordan Zimmermann, he comes into tonight’s game after a rough start against the Mets. While Zimmermann went six innings or more for the third straight start, the problem for the right-hander was the home run ball. He gave up three home runs in the third inning during the Mets’ 5-2 win.
The 29-year-old has now lost back-to-back decisions and he has given up 11 runs in his last three starts combined. Since the All-Star Break, he is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in four starts. If the Nats want to make it to the postseason, Zimmermann has to find his form and be that consistent number two starter behind Max Scherzer.
This start could be the one that gets Zimmermann back on track. In eight starts vs. Colorado, he is 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA. D.J. LeMahieu is 5-for-8 against him with a triple and two RBI’s.
Advantage: While De La Rosa is coming into this game with some confidence, the stats lean to the Nationals because of Zimmermann’s success against the Rockies. In addition, Colorado has not won at least two straight games since July 10-12 against the Braves. This game might be low scoring, but I like the Nats to win this one, 5-3.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jul 4, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) throws to the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Yohan Flande (2-1, 3.54) vs. Stephen Strasburg (5-5, 5.16) – 7:05 PM, MASN
Due to the numerous injuries to this Rockies’ rotation including Kyle Kendrick (shoulder injury), Colorado has had to call on Flande to make a couple of starts recently. In those two games, Flande gave up three runs in ten innings of work, struck out seven batters, and walked three.
The 29-year-old left-hander has been mainly a reliever this season. In eight relief outings, he is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA, has struck out ten batters, and walked five. Flande is a three-pitch pitcher. He has an average fastball of 90 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs) to go with his slider and changeup.
The one thing that is interesting about this start for Flande is that the Rockies used him in extra innings on Wednesday to get a win against the Seattle Mariners. Since he hasn’t thrown more than five innings in any of his starts, this should be a game where the Nats see a lot of the Rockies’ bullpen.
Saturday will mark the return of Stephen Strasburg to the rotation for the first time since July 4. The 27-year-old right-hander has missed over a month due to an oblique injury. Strasburg made two rehab starts in triple-A Syracuse. In one of those starts on Monday, he struck out 11 batters in 5.2 innings of work.
Before Strasburg went on the disabled list, he was looking as dominant as ever. In his last three starts on the big league level, he had given up two runs on nine hits, struck out 18, and walked four in 15.2 innings. If Strasburg can stay healthy and pitch to that caliber, he could definitely be the missing piece to the Nationals’ rotation.
In five career starts against the Rockies, Strasburg is 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA, but he has won two of his last three outings against them. LeMahieu is 4-for-9 with a home run and two RBI’s against Strasburg.
Advantage: If Flande does get the start for the Rockies in this one, I don’t expect him to go long in this game since the Nationals have done a good job of late in terms of working up the pitch count. If they can get capitalize in those situations, it will be a short night for him. Washington has been a great first inning team (as has Colorado) and this will be a game where Strasburg comes out and gets the win after his team spots him a couple runs early.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Aug 4, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Eddie Butler (3-8, 5.45) vs. Max Scherzer (11-8, 2.31) – 1:35 PM, MASN
Eddie Butler comes into this start after a rough outing against the Mariners on August 3. In that start, he went four innings, gave up seven runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked one in a loss. The 24-year-old right-hander has given up 19 runs in his last four starts (20.1 innings).
When you look at Butler’s stats, he is not a pitcher that is going to cause many hitters to swing and miss. This season, he has 38 strikeouts to go with 37 walks. Since May 1, Butler has only won one game (May 30 against the Phillies).
You could say that Butler is one of those pitchers who have not handled Coors Field well. He is 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA in six starts at home compared to a 2-4 record with a 4.08 ERA in eight road outings. Butler has a slider, curveball, changeup, and a fastball that averages 93 miles per hour on the radar gun. He has not faced the Nationals in his career.
On the other side, when you look at Max Scherzer’s last start, he was able to grind his way through six innings, but he did not have his best stuff in terms of control. In six innings of work against the Diamondbacks on August 4, Scherzer gave up three runs on four hits, struck out nine, and walked three on 115 pitches in a no-decision.
Lately, the problem for the 31-year-old right-hander has been his control. In his last four starts, Scherzer has walked eight batters, including back-to-back outings in which he has walked three hitters. In four starts since the All-Star Break, he is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA.
In five career starts against the Rockies, Scherzer is 1-3 with a 3.99 ERA, but he has not faced Colorado since 2012. Carlos Gonzalez is 1-for-6 against him with a home run.
Advantage: If Scherzer can cut down on the walks, he still has the ability to dominate every time he steps on the mound. While the Nationals may have a tough time adjusting to Butler early, I expect them to come up with one crooked inning, which should be enough for their ace. While I don’t like to pick sweeps, the Nationals could use a sweep to build their confidence up before they begin a critical ten game West Coast trip. Nats find a way to get the sweep behind a great outing by Scherzer.