Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Dodgers (8/10-8/12)
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
It was not the homestand that the Washington Nationals (57-53) and their fans would have hoped to see. Over the course of seven games against the Diamondbacks and Rockies, the Nats went 3-4 and are now 1.5 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East and 4.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second Wild Card spot.
While Nats Park was buzzing Satursay night when Stephen Strasburg made his return to the rotation and struck out 12 Rockies over seven innings and on Sunday, Ryan Zimmerman had two home runs, but the story of the weekend was Drew Storen’s two bad outings in the eighth inning Friday and Sunday, which were the games that the Nats lost.
With the Nationals’ recent struggles, they begin a ten game West Coast trip that has the potential to either make or break the team’s season. It starts tonight in Los Angeles where the Nats will face the Los Angeles Dodgers (62-49). While the Dodgers will send Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw to the mound, Los Angeles has not exactly been dominant lately.
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While Don Mattingly’s club is still three games ahead of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West, they are only 11-10 since the All-Star Break. This past weekend, the Dodgers were swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates, a series in which the Pirates scored 22 runs in three games.
Since the All-Star Break, the Dodgers’ best hitter in their lineup has been first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.298, 22 HR, 68 RBI’s). Gonzalez, who was 7-for-11 with two home runs against the Nats last month, is hitting .359 with four home runs and 13 RBI’s in his last 20 games. Gonzalez leads the team in batting average, home runs, and RBI’s.
One of the players that has been struggling for Los Angeles of late is rookie centerfielder Joc Pederson. Pederson (.222, 21 HR, 43 RBI’s) is hitting a mere .167 this month and has not hit over .240 in any given month since April. If Pederson can boost his average up to go with his .354 on-base percentage, the Dodgers’ offense will get that much better.
At the trade deadline, Los Angeles did not get David Price or Cole Hamels, but they made a three-team trade with the Marlins and Braves where they acquired Mat Latos and Alex Wood to fill out the back of the rotation. The Dodgers also added Jim Johnson to their bullpen, but he gave up eight runs last night in less than an inning.
Last month, in a series that featured a game being suspended due to faulty lights at Nats Park, the Dodgers took two out of three games against the Nats. They outscored the Nationals 14-5 and got dominant performances from both Greinke and Kershaw.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in these three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.75 ERA) vs. Brett Anderson (6-6, 3.06) – 10:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
In his last start against the Diamondbacks, Gio Gonzalez had one of his best games in terms of racking up the strikeouts. His seven strikeouts were the most he had in an outing since May 24 against the Phillies. While Gonzalez has been, arguably, the most productive starter on the Nats recently, he still is having a problem going to deep into games.
Gonzalez went five innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 95 pitches. Gonzalez has not given up more than two runs in seven straight starts, but he hasn’t thrown six innings in his last three starts. Since the break, he is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four starts.
Against the Dodgers in his career, Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts and has went six innings in each of those games. Third baseman Alberto Callaspo (.233, one home run, 15 RBI’s) is 9-for-26 against him with a double, triple, and three RBI’s.
This past offseason, the Dodgers signed left-hander Brett Anderson to a one-year deal worth $10 million. While the 27-year-old has had injury issues during his career, he has paid off for Los Angeles when he’s on the field.
In his last two starts, Gonzalez has given up three runs, struck out seven, and walked three over the course of 13 innings. The last time Anderson gave up more than three runs in an outing was back on June 10 against the Diamondbacks.
When you watch Anderson, you have to look at the amount of groundball he induces. Anderson has induced ten or more groundball outs in nine of his last ten starts. While Anderson has never faced the Nationals in his career, one Nats player has faced him in his career. Yunel Escobar is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against him.
Advantage: With Greinke and Kershaw looming in the next two games, this is a game that the Nationals need to get their West Coast trip off on the right foot. If Gonzalez can get the Nats into the sixth or seventh inning, I do like the Nats’ chances to get runs off Anderson when you consider that the team has scored 24 runs over its last four games. Nats win a 4-3 game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Ross (3-3, 2.80) vs. Zack Greinke (11-2, 1.71 ERA) – 10:10 PM ET, MASN
Since Joe Ross has returned to the rotation, he has been going up against some of the best pitchers in the game (Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom twice), Greinke will be the latest ace that Ross will face. However, he has handled himself well in those games and has earned staying in the rotation ahead of Doug Fister.
While Ross is only 1-2 in his last four starts, the win-loss record does not tell the whole story. The 22-year-old right-hander has a 2.92 ERA in those four games, has 24 strikeouts to two walks, and a .202 opponents’ batting average against (best in the Nats’ rotation).
Ross has shown pinpoint control in his short tenure in the bigs with his fastball and slider and he has been dominant against right-handed hitters. This season, righties are hitting .161 with four RBI’s and have struck out 29 times in 93 at-bats. However, he has his work ahead of him tomorrow night.
Even though Zack Greinke gave up five runs in the first inning in his last start against the Phillies, the right-hander found other ways to contribute and pick up a win. He hit a solo shot in the third inning to put Los Angeles up 7-5 en route to 10-8 win. Greinke gave up six runs over six innings, but struck out eight batters for the second straight start.
The 31-year-old has not lost a game since June 13 against the Padres. While he does not have the long scoreless inning streak anymore, he still has the best ERA (1.71) and WHIP (0.85). Against the Nats and Max Scherzer back on July 19, Greinke went eight innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out 11, and walked one on three hits.
In six starts against the Nats, Greinke is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA. Anthony Rendon is 1-for-3 agaisnt him with a home run and two RBI’s. That two-run homer came last season at Nats Park in the first inning of a 4-0 win on May 5.
Advantage: While I expect Ross to hold his own against Greinke, the Nats’ offense is going to have a tough time against one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young. Yes, the return of Rendon, Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth will help, but I want to see if Bryce Harper can have a big series against Greinke and Kershaw. Harper is hitting .387 this month, but has yet to hit a home run. If the Nats want to win this series, Harper needs at least one of those. Dodgers get a win behind another dominant outing from Greinke.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (8-7, 3.44) vs. Clayton Kershaw (9-6, 2.51) – 10:10 PM ET, MASN
Last Friday night, Nationals’ fans saw Jordan Zimmermann take the mound and put up one of his best performances of the season. In 6.2 innings, Zimmermann gave up one run on four hits, struck out six, and walked none on 106 pitches. He would have got the win if Drew Storen had not given up a grand slam to Carlos Gonzalez in the top of the eighth.
It’s just been more bad luck for Zimmermann, who has not won a game since July 11 vs. the Orioles (five starts). Since the All-Star Break, the 29-year-old right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.25 ERA, and has 24 strikeouts to five walks in 29.2 innings.
Zimmermann did make one start against the Dodgers on July 17 that got cut short due to faulty lights. He went four innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out three, walked one, and gave up a solo shot to Adrian Gonzalez. Plus, Zimmermann has been bad on the road this season. He has a 4.95 ERA in ten road starts this season with opponents hitting .320 against him (4-3, 2.44 ERA, .234 BAA at home).
Against the Dodgers, Zimmermann is 2-1 with a 5.00 ERA in seven career outings. Jimmy Rollins (.222, 11 HR, 35 RBI’s) is 8-for-35 against him with two home runs and five RBI’s.
As for Clayton Kershaw, he had his 37 straight scoreless inning streak snapped in his last start against the Pirates on Friday. In that game, Kershaw went six innings, gave up four runs on nine hits, struck out five, and walked two in a no-decision.
After fans were concerned about Kershaw’s slow start, the 27-year-old left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.16 ERA in his last four starts, has 37 strikeouts to three walks, and has held opposing hitters to a .160 batting average. That stretch of great games started with his outing against the Nationals on July 18.
In that game, Kershaw went eight innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out 14 batters, and he did not walk anyone on 101 pitches. In 12 games (11 starts) against the Nats, he is 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and has not been beaten by Washington since 2010. Jayson Werth is 9-for-26 against Kershaw with two home runs and two RBI’s.
Advantage: While Zimmermann looked better in his last start, it will be a tall order for him to go up against Kershaw, who doesn’t usually put together two bad starts in a row. While Kershaw won’t strike out 14 Nats this time with some of the regulars now back, I expect the Dodgers to win this game and take two out of three in this series.