Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats At Giants (8/13-8/16)
Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Nationals (58-55) started off their West Coast trip in Los Angeles and ended up losing two out of three games to the Dodgers. While the offense scored eight runs and got two home runs from Ian Desmond in a win on Monday, the bats went quiet in the final two games against Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. The Nats will go into this series on a 19-inning scoreless streak.
As for the pitchers on the mound, the Nats got good performances from Gio Gonzalez in a win on Monday and Jordan Zimmermann was solid on Wednesday, despite getting the hard luck loss against Kershaw. With the Mets sweeping the Colorado Rockies, the Nationals are now four games back in the NL East and they have lost eight of the 12 games they have played this month.
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Tonight, the Nats begin a four game series out in AT&T Park against the defending World Series champion, the San Francisco Giants (60-53). Back in July, the Nats swept the Giants in Washington, outscoring Bruce Bochy’s club 14-5 in the three games. San Francisco comes into this series, having lost seven of their last ten games and they are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
This month, San Francisco is 4-7 and they have been a team that has been bit by the injury bug. Right now, they have three starters on the disabled list in Tim Hudson, Mike Leake (who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline), and Tim Lincecum. Their starters’ ERA of 3.90 is seventh in the National League, just behind the Nationals (3.68).
On offense, the Giants are without second baseman Joe Panik and outfielder Angel Pagan, who are both on the DL. That being said, San Francisco has scored 111 runs since the All-Star Break, which is fifth in the National League. First baseman Brandon Belt has eight home runs in his last 24 games and catcher Buster Posey is hitting .393 over his last 22 games.
When you look at San Francisco’s bullpen, they are fourth in the NL in ERA (3.35). Santiago Casilla has 27 saves, but he has blown five saves this season. However, the Giants have some good middle relievers, such as left-hander Javier Lopez (1.45 ERA in 55 games) and right-hander George Kontos (1.95 ERA in 53 games).
With that being said, let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the four pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg (6-5. 4.76 ERA) vs. Ryan Vogelsong (7-8, 4.26) – 10:15 PM ET, broadcast on MASN + MLB Network
Last Saturday, Stephen Strasburg made his return to the Nationals rotation and he definitely made his presence known right away. Against the Rockies, Strasburg went seven innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out 12 batters (season-high) and did not walk a batter.
Even though Strasburg has been on the disabled list twice, he has not lost a start since May 23 against the Phillies (five starts). He has given up three earned runs combined in his last four starts. If Strasburg can continue to show the dominance he did in his last start, he could be a big X-Factor for the Nats down the stretch.
Strasburg is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in six starts against San Francisco. He made one start against them this season. On July 4, he gave up one hit in the first 3.2 innings before leaving the game with a left oblique injury. Brandon Crawford (.267, 19 HR, 71 RBI’s) is 3-for-10 against him with four RBI’s.
Due to the injuries in the Giants rotation, Vogelsong has had to go back to being a starter. In his last start against the Cubs on August 7, Vogelsong went four innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked one in the loss.
As a starter this season, the 38-year-old right-hander is 6-7 with a 4.12 ERA in 17 starts. While his command has improved since moving to the bullpen, Vogelsong still has 44 walks this season. He faced the Nats on July 5 and had his start end early after being thrown out of the game for arguing balls and strikes. He gave up one run on three hits, struck out three, and walked two over four innings in a no-decision.
In ten appearances against the Nationals, Vogelsong is 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA. Ian Desmond is 4-for-12 against him with one home run and six RBI’s.
Advantage: While Vogelsong has a 3.00 ERA in ten home outings this year (5.19 ERA on the road), having a pitcher like Strasburg who has 23 strikeouts in his last two games (counting the 11 K’s in his rehab game at Syracuse), the Nationals should have the edge in this one as their lineup will be able to work up Vogelsong’s pitch count and get to the San Francisco bullpen early.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (11-8, 2.44) vs. Matt Cain (2-3, 5.59) – 10:15 PM ET, MASN2
While Max Scherzer has had 19 strikeouts in his last two starts, he has not had a dominant second half as Nats fans would have hoped after a great first half of the season. Since the All-Star Break, Scherzer is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA in five starts and opponents are hitting .254 against him.
In his last start against the Rockies on August 8, the 31-year-old right hander went six innings, gave up four runs on eight hits, struck out ten, and walked one in a no decision. The problem for Scherzer in that game was giving up the long ball as he gave up three solo shots. With that being said, he hasn’t lost a game since July 19 against the Dodgers (four starts)
In his career against the Giants, Scherzer is 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA in four starts, but he hasn’t faced San Francisco since Game 4 of the 2012 World Series when he gave up three runs on seven hits and struck out eight over 6.1 innings in a no-decision. Hunter Pence (.285, 7 HR, 37 RBI’s) is 1-for-6 against him with a RBI.
Matt Cain missed most of the first half of the season as he was recovering from an elbow injury. The 30-year old right-hander has not gone past the sixth inning in any of his seven starts this season. One of the reasons for that is he has not been able to keep the opponent off the scoreboard.
Cain has given up four runs or more in five of his seven starts and recently had issues with his command. On August 8 against the Cubs, Cain went four innings, gave up five runs on six hits, struck out two, and walked five in a loss. Plus, opponents are hitting .309 against him this season.
In 14 starts against the Nats, Cain is 5-5 with a 3.34 ERA, but he has two wins in his last eight appearances against Washington dating back to 2009. Ryan Zimmerman is 8-for-31 against him with three doubles, a home run, and five RBI’s.
Advantage: When you look at this matchup, it comes down to which pitcher is going to show their ace form. Injuries have prevented Cain from being the ace that he once was and he has not been able to put two good starts together. Even though Scherzer has struggled with his location in the second half of the season, he has made up for it with the strikeouts and that should help the Nationals find a way to get a win.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (9-4, 3.50) vs. Jake Peavy (2-5, 3.75) – 10:05 PM ET, MASN2 + FOX SPORTS 1
This matchup on Saturday night will be a re-match of the one that took place on July 3 at Nats Park. First, let’s talk about Gio Gonzalez, as he got the West Coast trip started for the Nationals on the right note. The 29-year-old left—hander went eight innings, gave up no runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked one.
In his last eight starts, Gonzalez has given up no more than two runs in each game. Plus, his command has been much better as he has walked two batters in his last two starts. In five starts since the All-Star Break, Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA.
In eight starts against the Giants, Gonzalez is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Back on July 3, Gonzalez went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, and struck out six in a victory. Buster Posey is 4-for-17 against the left-hander with a home run.
As for Peavy, the 34-year-old right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and has a 3.07 ERA in five starts since the All-Star Break. While Peavy only went five innings in his last start against the Cubs, he gave up two runs on four hits, struck out six, and walked two, but the Giants lost 2-0. Nevertheless, Peavy still has given up six earned runs in his last four outings. In 13 starts against the Nationals, Peavy is 4-6 with a 3.79 ERA. Jayson Werth is 3-for-16 against Peavy with three RBI’s.
Advantage: Both of these pitchers have been on a good roll as of late, but I am going to give the edge to Peavy in this game. Even though Gonzalez has been the Nats’ best starter as of late, Peavy has done a good job in picking up the rest of the rotation behind Bumgarner. Giants get a 5-4 victory.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Ross (3-4, 3.44) vs. Madison Bumgarner (13-6, 3.15) – 4:05 PM ET, MASN2
Last time out, against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, Joe Ross did not show the same pinpoint command that Nats’ fans are used to seeing from him. The 22-year-old right-hander went 4.2 innings, gave up five runs on six hits, struck out one, and walked four in the loss. He has now lost three of his last four decisions.
One of the things to keep an eye on in this start for Ross is his command of his slider. In the fourth inning, Ross left a slider over the plate to Yasiel Puig and he made him pay for it by crushing a home run. Ross has given up at least one home run in each of his last four starts, but it will be interesting to see if pitching at AT&T Park might help out those home run numbers.
However, once again, Ross has to go up against another team’s ace in Madison Bumgarner. On Tuesday night, against the Astros, the 26-year-old right-hander threw a complete game, gave up one run on five hits, struck out 12, and did not walk a single batter.
Since the All-Star break, the Giants’ ace is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA in five starts. He has given up ten runs in 31 innings, but six of those runs came in one start against the Rangers on July 31. Plus, Bumgarner has been excellent at home this season. In 12 starts, he is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA (7-4, 4.16 ERA in 11 road starts).
Back on July 4, Bumgarner struggled at Nats Park as he could not adjust to the unique 11 AM ET start time. In that outing, he went five innings, gave up six runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked one in a loss. He is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts vs. the Nats. Bryce Harper is 4-for-11 with two home runs and three RBI’s against him.
Advantage: While I do expect Ross to bounce back and put up a quality outing, going up against another ace on the road is going to be challenging for a lineup that couldn’t get any runs against Greinke and Kershaw. I like the Giants to win this game and get a split of the four game series.