Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Padres (8/25-8/27)
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
After losing the first game of their series to the Milwaukee Brewers 10-3, the Washington Nationals (62-61) bounced back to win the final two games of the series with Milwaukee by a combined score of 13-4. The star of the series was Anthony Rendon. Rendon, who had to play third base because of the injury to Yunel Escobar Friday, has hit home runs in back-to-back games.
Tonight, the Nats will get another key member of their offense back in the lineup. Center fielder Denard Span, who has been out since July 6 due to a back injury, is in the starting lineup tonight and will be batting leadoff:
The #Nats have reinstated CF Denard Span from the 15-day DL & optioned RHP Tanner Roark to Single-A Potomac. Details: http://t.co/kKCYov05Sy
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) August 25, 2015
While the Nats have won consecutive series, they have not been able to gain ground against a Mets team that has won four straight games and New York leads the Nats by 5.5 games with 39 to play. While winning series is nice, the Nationals will need to start sweeping series at some point to stay in the race. Will that start tonight against the San Diego Padres (61-63), who Washington took three of four from back in May at PETCO Park?
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It’s been a disappointing year for the Padres after all the moves General Manager A.J. Preller made during the winter, San Diego has played well as of late. Despite changing managers from Bud Black to Pat Murphy earlier this season, San Diego has won seven of their last ten games. Preller decided to keep most of the team in tact at the trade deadline in order to make one last push for the postseason, but the Padres are fourth in the NL West and 6.5 games behind the Dodgers coming into tonight’s game.
On offense, the two players to talk about in this San Diego lineup are right fielder Matt Kemp and left fielder Justin Upton. Kemp (.267, 15 HR, 76 RBI’s) heads into Nats Park on a 15-game hitting streak and is hitting .329 this month with four home runs and 20 RBI’s. As for Upton (.258, 20 HR, 67 RBI’s), he is hitting .306 this month with two home runs and 11 RBI’s.
When you look at San Diego’s pitching, their team ERA of 3.80 is fifth in the National League. The leader in their rotation in wins since the break is Ian Kennedy. Kennedy, who won’t be pitching in this series, is 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in his last seven starts. As for the bullpen, the Padres’ relievers’ ERA of 3.82 is the fourth highest ERA in the NL, even though closer Craig Kimbrel is 35-for-37 in saves this year.
Before this series gets underway, let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
James Shields (9-5, 3.74 ERA) vs. Stephen Strasburg (7-6, 4.22) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Shields was one of the main acquisitions this offseason for the Padres when San Diego signed him to a four year, $75 million. One thing that the 33-year-old right-hander has done well this season is eat innings. Shields has thrown 158.2 innings (ninth in the NL) and is fourth in the NL in strikeouts (174).
While he has given up three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, one of the main issues for the former Rays and Royals’ pitcher has been his command. He has 56 walks, which his third in the NL and has walked 12 batters in his last six starts. In his last outing against the Braves on August 18, he went six innings, gave up no runs on five hits, struck out seven, and walked two in a win.
Against the Nationals, Shields has a 5.11 ERA in two career starts, but he has not faced Washington since 2009. Denard Span, who is expected to return to the lineup tonight, is 4-for-27 with two doubles against Shields.
As for Strasburg, he put together another dominant outing against the Rockies in his last start. He went seven innings, gave up one unearned run on two hits, struck out five, and did not walk a batter. In that game, he had 11 groundball outs, which is tied for the second most groundballs he has induced in an outing this season.
Even though Strasburg has struggled with numerous injury issues this season, you can make the case he is the most consistent pitcher on the Nats right now. He has not given up more than two runs in any outing since May 23 against the Phillies. Plus, in his last three starts, he has a combined 25 strikeouts to only two walks. If Strasburg can command his fastball, it will help him a long way with his secondary pitches.
In five starts against San Diego, Strasburg is 4-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Back on May 17 at PETCO Park, Strasburg went five innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a 10-5 Nats’ win. Justin Upton is 9-for-29 against him with two home runs and five RBI’s. Upton’s brother, Melvin Upton Jr. (formerly B.J. Upton) also has two home runs against Strasburg.
Advantage: With Denard Span back in the lineup for the Nationals, the team should receive a huge boost in this game. Span is the type of hitter who can make Shields work out of the gate and draw some walks. Plus, this season, Shields has a 4.75 ERA in 13 road starts (2.78 ERA in 13 home starts). With Strasburg putting up good numbers since his return, this has the makings for the Nationals to extend their winning streak to three.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Tyson Ross (8-9, 3.32) vs. Gio Gonzalez (9-6, 3.98) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
Tyson will be the first of the two Ross brothers to make a start in this series. In Tyson’s last start against the Braves on August 19, he went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five, and walked three in a no-decision. He has not won a game in his last three starts.
One of the problems for Ross this season after having a 2.81 ERA in 31 starts last season has been his command. The 28-year-old has 70 walks this season (leads the league) after having only 72 walks a season ago. Even though Ross’ command has not been great, he still is one of the best groundball pitchers in the game and he has not given up more than three runs in a game since June 15 against the A’s (12 starts).
In five games (two starts) against the Nats, Ross is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA. Back on May 14, Ross went five innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out six, and walked three in a 8-3 Padres’ win. Anthony Rendon is 2-for-5 against him with a home run and three RBI’s.
After being the Nats’ best starter during the month of July, Gio Gonzalez has struggled and gone back to his inconsistent form that he had during the beginning of the season. In four starts this month, he is 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA and opponents are hitting .326 against him. Gonzalez gets the start in this game because the Nationals are aligning their rotation to get their top three starters to face the Mets in a couple of weeks:
The key point of #Nats rotation juggling: Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann now all lined up to face #Mets for Labor Day series in DC.
— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) August 25, 2015
Against the Brewers on August 21, he went five innings, gave up five runs (four earned runs) on eight hits, struck out five, and walked two. Gonzalez has walked ten batters in his last five starts and has given up 11 runs over his last 7.2 innings. If the Nats are going to make that last playoff push, they need Gonzalez to bounce back and put together a great outing.
In three starts against the Padres, Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA. Justin Upton is 5-for-16 against him with three home runs, four RBI’s, and six walks.
Advantage: While I expect Gonzalez to pitch better, I am going to go with the Padres in this one. Even though Ross has been struggling this season, his ability to get key groundball outs is going to help him in this game and get San Diego the victory.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew Cashner (5-12, 4.03) vs. Joe Ross (4-5, 3.56) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN and MLB Network
Last season, Andrew Cashner had a 2.55 ERA in 19 starts with the Padres. However, just like I talked about with Ross, Cashner has had his fair share of struggles this season. That being said, he is coming off a good outing against the Cardinals on August 20. In that start, Cashner went six innings, gave up one run (no earned runs) on four hits, struck out eight, and walked two on 114 pitches (most he has thrown in an outing this season).
After going 3-10 in the first half of the season, the 28-year-old right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.79 ERA in his last six starts since the All-Star Break. While the numbers have been improving for Cashner, opponents are hitting .273 in his last six starts after opponents hit .267 in the first half of the year. On the road this season, he is 2-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 14 starts (3-6, 3.34 ERA in ten home outings).
In ten appearances (five starts) vs. Washington, Cashner is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA. Back on May 16, Cashner went six innings, gave up four runs (three earned runs) on nine hits, struck out six, and walked two in a 4-1 loss against Max Scherzer. Ryan Zimmerman is 2-for-11 with a home run and three RBI’s against him.
After Tyson starts on Wednesday, his younger brother Joe will get the chance to start against his older brother’s team on Thursday. In Ross’s last start against the Brewers on August 22, he went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out four, and walked none on 82 pitches to pick up his first win since August 6.
Joe Ross had walked five batters in his previous two starts, but he did not walk a single Brewer hitter and he induced 13 groundball outs, which is tied for the most he has had in an outing this season. The seven innings that Ross threw last time out is the most he has pitched in a game since June 19 against the Pirates.
Advantage: While Cashner’s fastball could give the Nats some problems, I’m going to give the slight edge to Ross in this game because of what I saw in his last start in terms of bouncing back after two rough outings. While Ross is getting up there in terms of innings, he has been able to keep the Nationals in nearly every game that he pitches. The Nats find a way to get the win and take two out of three games in this series.
Next: District Daily: Long Odds Mean Nats Have To Get Hot To Reach October