Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Marlins (8/28-8/30)
Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
While the Washington Nationals (64-62) were able to take two out of three games from the San Diego Padres and win their third consecutive series, the injury bug continues to plague this team. After last night’s 4-2 win, manager Matt Williams announced that Denard Span was going on the disabled list because of hip inflammation and could be out for the remainder of the season.
Plus, Yunel Escobar and Michael Taylor are both to day-to-day because of a wrist and knee injury respectively. Despite some of these injuries, there were some positive things the Nats did in this series. Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross both put up great pitching performances in the Nats’ two wins and Ryan Zimmerman went 3-for-12 with two home runs and eight RBI’s in the thiree games.
The Nats are 4-2 in their last six games, but because the Mets have won seven games in a row, Washington is now 6.5 games back with 36 games to play. They will conclude their nine game homestand this weekend when they host the Miami Marlins (51-77). Miami has defeated the Nats in five of the nine matchups this season.
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Dan Jennings’ club, who is still without right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (wrist injury) and starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (biceps), has lost seven of its last ten games and they are 13-26 since the All-Star Break. Over that stretch, their offense has scored the second fewest runs in the National League (141). One of the players that have stood out amidst those struggles is Derek Dietrich. The Marlins’ left fielder has six home runs and 16 RBI’s over his last 34 games.
On the mound, Miami’s team ERA of 4.46 is the fourth highest in the NL. The rotation looks a lot different then when the Nats went to Miami in late July because Fernandez is hurt and Mat Latos is now with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their bullpen hasn’t been great as closer A.J. Ramos has blown two saves and has a 7.71 ERA in his last 16 games.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Conley (1-1, 4.88 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (11-10, 2.79) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Due to the vast amount of injuries in the Marlins’ rotation, they have had to call on some young arms to help fill those slots. One of those starters is left-handed pitcher Adam Conley. The 25-year-old will make his fifth start of the season tonight. Conley was the team’s second round pick in the 2011 MLB Draft out of Washington State University.
As a starter, Conley is 1-1 with a 5.12 ERA in four starts. In his last outing against the Phillies on August 23, he went six innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out five, and walked four on 106 pitches (a season-high). According to Fangraphs, Conley has a fastball that averages 90 miles per hour, a slider, and a changeup. However, before his last start, he had not thrown more than 4.2 innings in any outing this season.
After the Nationals re-aligned their rotation on Tuesday, it allowed Max Scherzer to get some extra rest and hopefully rejuvenate him for these final 36 games. Scherzer had a great first half for the Nats, but he has underachieved in the second half of the year. Scherzer has a 5.08 ERA in his last seven starts and has a 6.86 ERA in four starts this month.
The 31-year-old right-hander has not started since August 20 against the Rockies. In that game out at Coors Field, Scherzer went six innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, struck out seven, and walked three in a loss. He has not won a game since July 30 against Miami.
Against those Marlins this season, Scherzer is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and has given up just five earned runs in 14 innings. Second baseman Dee Gordon (.333, 2 HR, 35 RBI’s) is 6-for-17 with a double, a home run, and two RBI’s. Gordon has bothered the Nats all season. He is 15-for-37 (.405) with a home run, two RBI’s, and a .436 on-base percentage against them.
Advantage: Although the Nationals lineup might look different and could struggle against Conley early, this is where the experience of Max Scherzer and the rest he has been given should give him the edge in this game. The Nats did score 17 runs in the three games against San Diego and I expect that offensive success to continue in this game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Tom Koehler (8-12, 3.98) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (10-8, 3.54) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN
The Nationals will be going up against Koehler tomorrow and the Marlins’ 29-year-old right-hander has not won a game since July 23 against the Padres (six straight losses). Koehler did show improvement in his last start against the Pirates on August 24. He went six innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked four on 112 pitches (a season-high).
The problem for Koehler all season has been his lack of command. While he has held hitters to a .247 batting average, his 55 walks are the sixth most in the National League. Since the All-Star Break, Koehler is 1-7 with a 5.21 ERA and he is 0-5 with a 6.51 ERA this month.
This season, Koehler is 1-2 in three starts against the Nationals with a 4.66 ERA. One player who likes to see Koehler on the mound is Bryce Harper. The Nats’ right fielder is 7-for-21 against him with five home runs and nine RBI’s. Harper had three home runs against Koehler at Nats Park back on May 6.
While Jordan Zimmermann has won each of his last two stars, he has not been dominant in any of those outings. Over his last 11.2 innings, he has given up 10 runs (eight earned runs) and five home runs. In his last start against the Brewers on Sunday, he went 5.2 innings, gave up four runs on eight hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 116 pitches (a season-high).
Since the All-Star Break, the 29-year-old right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA, but the offense has picked him up in each of his last two starts as they have scored a combined total of 24 runs. Plus, Zimmermann’s command has been sharp as he has walked just eight batters over his last eight starts.
Against the Marlins this season, Zimmermann is 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. Third baseman Martin Prado (.272, 6 HR, 40 RBI’s) is 12-for-26 with three doubles and three RBI’s against him.
Advantage: Even though Zimmermann has not been his usual self, Koehler has not been able to buy a win in his last six starts. While Bryce Harper has only hit five home runs since the All-Star Break, two of them did come against Koehler and I expect Harper to hit at least one home run tomorrow as the Nats find a way to give Zimmermann some more run support in a win.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Brad Hand (4-3, 4.23) vs. Stephen Strasburg (8-6, 4.14) – 1:35 PM ET, MASN
While Brad Hand has been mainly a reliever for Miami this year, he has risen to the challenge of starting this month. Over his last five starts, Hand is 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and has 21 strikeouts to five walks over his last 31 innings. During his last outing against the Pirates on Tuesday, Hand went eight innings, gave up two runs on nine hits, struck out five, and did not walk a batter.
The 25-year-old left-hander has four pitches that he likes to use in his arsenal. He has a fastball that averages 92 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs), a slider, curveball, and changeup. When you consider Hand has given up no more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts, he has done enough to keep Miami in nearly every game that he pitches in.
Hand has made nine appearances (five starts) against the Nats and he is 0-5 in those games with a 7.71 ERA. Last season, he went 0-3 with a 7.85 in four starts vs. Washington. In a small sample size, Ryan Zimmerman is 6-for-8 with four doubles against him.
The Nationals will send Stephen Strasburg to the mound on Sunday afternoon and Strasburg has been the team’s best starter this month. In his last start against the Padres on Tuesday, the 27-year-old right-hander went six innings, gave up two runs on two hits, struck out seven, and walked one in the victory.
Over his last four starts, Strasburg is 3-1 with a 1.73 ERA and he has been able to keep command of his fastball. During this stretch, he has struck out 32 batters and walked three while holding opposing hitters to a .156 batting average. After that home run by Jedd Gyorko, Strasburg retired the final 15 batters he faced.
In two starts against the Marlins this year, Strasburg is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA. Center fielder Marcell Ozuna (.250, 6 HR, 29 RBI’s) is 7-for-17 against him with a home run and five RBI’s against him.
Advantage: While Hand has pitched well in the Marlins’ rotation, the fact that the Nationals have been able to hit the ball well against him should help them in this game. Plus, it is hard to go against Strasburg with the way that he has pitched lately. Every game is critical for the Nats at this point in the season and to have your three best starters in this weekend’s series should lead to a sweep.