Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Cardinals (8/31-9/2)

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Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals (66-63) just finished up a nine game homestand against the Brewers, Padres, and Marlins, in which they went 6-3 and won each series. The Nats’ offense had a good series offensively against Miami over the weekend. They hit seven home runs against Marlins’ pitching, but more injuries happened as Stephen Strasburg left yesterday’s win after four innings because of tightness in his back.

Despite the Nats starting to play more consistent baseball, they have not been able to gain significant ground on the Mets in the NL East. The Mets did lose two out of three games to the Red Sox this weekend, but they have a 5.5 game lead on the Nats with 33 games left. Plus, the Mets begin a three game series against the Phillies tonight, a team that they are 12-1 against this season.

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As for the Nats, they head on the road for a brief three game trip, but those three games will take place at Busch Stadium against the team with the best record in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals (84-46). Despite that great record, the NL Central is still a race as St. Louis leads the Pirates by 4.5 games. The Nats and Cardinals have not faced each other since April 21-23 at Nats Park, a series that the Cardinals won two out of the three games. St. Louis has won seven of their last eight games, are 18-9 in their last 27 games, and 28-13 over their last 41 contests.

When you talk about Mike Matheny’s team, their strength is their pitching. Even though Adam Wainwright is out for the season with a torn ACL, the Cards have the best starters’ ERA in baseball (2.79) and have the most quality starts in the game (90). They have four pitchers with ten or more wins, including Michael Wacha, who is 15-4 with a 2.69 ERA. In the bullpen, closer Trevor Rosenthal is 41-for-43 in saves with a 1.52 ERA and leads a ‘pen that has the lowest ERA in the game (2.33)

While the Cardinals’ offense does not have one player carrying the team, they do a good job of playing team ball, despite losing players like Matt Adams and Matt Holliday due to injuries. The player to watch is third baseman Matt Carpenter (.262, 20 HR, 69 RBI’s). Carpenter has 11 home runs and 26 RBI’s to go with a .339 on-base percentage over his last 41 games. The Cardinals have a good mix of veterans and youth in their lineup. For example, rookie right fielder Stephen Piscotty is hitting .341 over his last 46 games with three home runs and 23 RBI’s.

Before this series gets underway, let’s look at who has the edge in each of these three pitching matchups:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Gio Gonzalez (9-7, 4.11 ERA) vs. John Lackey (11-8, 2.92) – 8:15 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2

After completing eight innings in a win over the Dodgers on August 10, Gio Gonzalez has struggled to get past the fifth inning in each of his last three outings (all losses). Against the Padres on August 26, Gonzalez went 4.2 innings, gave up five runs (four earned runs) on seven hits, struck out six, and walked two on 86 pitches.

The 29-year-old left-hander has 12 walks in his last six starts and he has given up 14 runs over his 11.1 innings. It was thought Gonzalez had turned the corner after he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in five July starts. However, August has been the exact opposite for him. This month, he is 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five starts and opponents are hitting .333 against him.

In four starts against the Cardinals, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 0.93 ERA. One of those starts came on April 21 back at Nats Park. In that game, the Cardinals did get eight hits and drew four walks, but Gonzalez kept them off the board for six innings in a no-decision. Jason Heyward (.291, 11 HR, 48 RBI’s) is 6-for-28 against him with four RBI’s.

The Cardinals have some good young pitchers in their rotation, but Lackey’s success this season has gone under the radar. The 36-year-old right-hander has thrown 172.2 innings, which is the sixth most of any pitcher in the National League and has given up three runs or fewer in nine of his last ten outings.

In Lackey’s last start on August 26 against the Diamondbacks, he went seven innings, gave up one run on seven hits, struck out four, and walked one. In his last eight starts, he is 4-3 with a 2.77 ERA and has struck out 41 batters to just 11 walks. He is the guy in this Cardinals’ rotation that can eat innings at the back end of the rotation and keep his team in the game.

Lackey is 1-0 against the Nats with a 4.58 ERA in three career starts. On April 22, he got the no-decision against Washington. He went 5.2 innings, gave up five runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked one. Yunel Escobar is 10-for-27 against him with three doubles, four RBI’s, and three walks.

Advantage: When you look at this game, I think this is the one where the Nats have the best chance to win. Lackey has been consistent, but the Nationals’ offense did have success against him in April. If Washington can score runs for Gonzalez, who has a 4.84 ERA away from Nats Park, they will get the win, but the next two pitching matchups do not look favorable to them.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Ross (5-5, 3.24) vs. Carlos Martinez (13-6, 2.91) – 8:15 PM ET, MASN2

With Tanner Roark getting a start in Harrisburg tonight, could tomorrow night’s game be the last time that Nats’ fans see Joe Ross start a game in 2015? After a rough West Coast trip, the 22-year-old rookie had two strong starts during the Nats’ nine game homestand. In those outings, he gave up a total of two runs in 13 innings.

Back on August 27, Ross went six innings, gave up one run (no earned runs) on one hit, struck out seven, and walked two on 77 pitches to get his second straight win. While Ross has been effective for the Nationals this season, his pitch count has not eclipsed 90 pitches in each of his last five outings. That could be a bad sign you go up against a Cardinals’ team that knows how to work the count and wait for their pitch to hit. While Ross has a 3.50 ERA in his last eight starts, he has held opponents’ to a .216 batting average.

When you look at Carlos Martinez, the 23-year-old brings some electric stuff to the mound, but he has gone through his own struggles as of late. The right-hander has given up three runs or more in five of his last six outings. In his last outing on July 27 against the Diamondbacks, Martinez went six innings, gave up three runs on four hits, struck out six, and walked two in the win.

According to Fangraphs, Martinez throws a fastball that averages 95 miles per hour to go with a slider, changeup, and an occasional curveball. His fastball is the sixth fastest on average in the game. That being said, he has a tendency to not control that pitch as he has walked 54 batters this year. After going 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA in five July starts, Martinez is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in five starts this month.

Martinez has never had a start against the Nats, but he has a 7.36 ERA in four relief appearances against them. Anthony Rendon is 2-for-2 against him with a double and a RBI.

Advantage: While Martinez has had his fair share of struggles recently, the Cardinals are the kind of the team that could make Ross pay for throwing too many strikes over the plate. This could be a high-scoring game against two talented, young pitchers, but I like St. Louis to get the win in this game. Plus, it will be interesting to see how the 40-man rosters will effect this game since it’s the first game that team can have up to 40 players on the roster.

Next: Wednesday's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Max Scherzer (11-11, 2.88) vs. Michael Wacha (15-4, 2.69) – 8:15 PM ET, ESPN/MASN2

This matchup on Wednesday night is a re-match of the game that took place on April 23, when Wacha beat Scherzer at Nats Park. First, let’s talk about Scherzer, who has not pitched well for the Nats as of late and he has to be happy that his month of August is over.

In his last start against the Marlins on August 28, Scherzer went seven innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out eight, and walked none while giving up two home runs in a loss. Scherzer has given up 13 runs in his last 16 innings and has not won a game since July 30 against Miami. This month, Scherzer went 0-3 with a 6.43 ERA in five starts and gave up seven home runs (most in any month this season).

In three career starts against the Cardinals, Scherzer is 0-2 with a 3.71 ERA. Back on April 23, he went seven innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out four, and did not walk one in a loss. Brandon Moss, who was traded from Cleveland to St. Louis at the trade deadline, is 3-for-14 against Scherzer with a home run and three RBI’s.

As for Wacha, it was the defense that cost him a win in his last start against the Giants. Back on August 28, Wacha went six innings, gave up four runs (no earned runs) on six hits, struck out six, and walked two in a no-decision.

Despite not getting the win in that game, the 24-year-old right-hander has not lost a game since July 26 against the Atlanta Braves and has given up a total of four earned runs over his last six outings. Since the All-Star Break, Wacha is 5-1 in his last eight starts with a 2.16 ERA and has opponents to a .226 batting average. He is third in the NL in wins and has become the lead man in St. Louis with Wainwright out.

Wacha is 2-1 in three starts against Washington with a 0.79 ERA. He was able to beat Scherzer on April 23 when he gave up one run on five hits over seven innings of work. Bryce Harper is 2-for-9 against him with three strikeouts.

Advantage: If the Nationals are going to make that September playoff push, they need Max Scherzer to be the ace that he was in the first half of the season. Eventually, Scherzer will bounce back, but Wacha has been dominant for the Cardinals recently and I expect that to continue in this one. St. Louis gets the win and takes two out of three games in this series.

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